Friday, 4 October 2013

The Pac-12 Journey 2013 Game 45: The Pac-12 takes Notre Dame out for an awkward first date

Arianna Grainey (left), Matt Cashore/USA Today Sports (right)


Who is playing?

The 22nd ranked Arizona State Sun Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Where is this game being played?

Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

What time does the game start and where can I find it on my television?

4:30 PM (PT) on NBC.

What is the point spread?

Arizona State is favored by six points (-6)

What should I watch for when Arizona State has the ball?

The key for Arizona State will be giving Taylor Kelly enough time to deliver the ball because once ASU gets the ball in the air they should be able to score some points. Now, Notre Dame's defense is no joke featuring one of the best defensive fronts in the nation led by future first round picks Louis Nix III and and Stephon Tuitt. Notre Dame has made a living in recent years on controlling the line of scrimmage and having all other levels of the defense feed off their line. The weak spot in Notre Dame's defense is their secondary that plays the ball atrociously in the air. The one thing Notre Dame has consistently struggled with is their defensive backs constantly playing the receiver instead of the ball and giving up long completions and/or pass interference penalties on deep jump balls. This is particularly bad news for Notre Dame this week as they prepare to face Jaelen Strong. At 6'3'' and 210 pounds with explosive athleticism, Strong is a mismatch against any opposing secondary but especially against the Irish.

Notre Dame's best cover corner is sophomore KeiVarae Russell who will likely garner the match up against Strong. Russell is generously listed at 5'11'' and will be giving up at least four inches and 20 pounds to Strong so it will be critical for Russell to be able to jam him and slow him up at the line at least a little bit and for Notre Dame defensive coordinator Bob Diaco to have a safety over the top against Strong at all times. The hope for Notre Dame lies in their defensive front and their ability to make ASU one dimensional. As much of a mismatch as Strong is, it's a lot easier to play him on 3rd and 10 with a safety covering him deep. Arizona State's offensive line needs to step up and handle Nix and Tuitt as well as linebackers Carlo Calabrese and Prince Shembo.

Whether or not Arizona State's offensive line can hold up is unforeseeable. So far this year the Sun Devils were manhandled up front by a premier defensive line in the form of Stanford but controlled the game for 60 minutes against USC's vaunted front line. Will the O-line that got embarrassed by Stanford or the one that pushed around USC show up on Saturday? We will have to wait to find out but the answer to that question is the key factor that will decide the outcome of this game. As great a tailback as Marion Grice is he can't run without any holes up front and Kelly can't deliver the ball to Strong or any receivers for that matter if he's flat on his back. If the Sun Devils can get 1st and 2nd down yards from Grice and allow Kelly to stand in the pocket unharrassed on 3rd down, they will win this game.

What should I watch for when Notre Dame has the ball?

The reason Notre Dame needs its defensive line to succeed is because their offense is nowhere near good enough to keep pace if they don't. Offense has been an enormous struggle for Notre Dame in recent years especially in the passing game. QB Tommy Rees is a below average passer at best who is erratic with his accuracy, possesses merely average arm strength, and has an unfortunate tendency to force ill-advised passes into coverage at very inopportune moments in games. Notre Dame needs to prevent Tommy Rees from beating them and they do that by not letting him beat the Sun Devils. Notre Dame is a running team anyway but on Saturday they need to call a run/pass ratio that's more in line with Georgia tech or Air Force than it is with Notre Dame.

Running the ball is the identity of Notre Dame's offense and defending the run has been the bane of ASU's existence. The Sun Devils have allowed 231, 240, and 247 yards on the ground in their past three games. The Sun Devils are still without their best run stopper in DT Jaxon Hood and that means Notre Dame has a big opportunity. Notre Dame does not have any tailbacks who have proven to be as dynamic as Melvin Gordon or Tre Madden but they are good enough to run on the Sun Devils. The Irish need to run, run, run, and run some more. When they seem tired of running, they should keep running and if they think about passing they should stop thinking that way and keep running.

If Notre Dame gets possessed into thinking they should pass or if they struggle to run they are screwed. ASU loves obvious passing situations where Will Sutton and Carl Bradford can collapse the pocket. This is particularly dangerous against a QB like Rees who will throw soft passes into coverage when pressured for Alden Darby and company to intercept.

Who should I bet on and who will win?

Ty Hildenbrandt of the Solid Verbal, a boisterous Notre Dame fan said on his show this week that ASU is at least 10-14 points better than Notre Dame on a neutral field right now and he tends to have a very good feel for his favorite team. Hildenbrandt is right because the Sun Devils should be able to go back to the well with Jaelen Strong over and over again. Even though Notre Dame's running attack should be productive in moving both the ball and the clock but constant running and no passing is not the way to keep up with an explosive ASU offense even if it is Notre Dame's only chance. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is 2-12 at Notre Dame when opposing teams score at least 21 points. Whether it's scoring himself or hauling a long pass to eventually set up a score for someone else, the Strong mismatch alone should be good for at least three touchdowns. Go ahead and lay the points as Arizona State wins this one 35-24.

The Pac-12 Journey 2013 Game 44: David faces Goliath and David does not have a slingshot

Steve Dykes/Getty Images (left), Jack Dempsey/Associated Press (right)

Who is playing?

The number two ranked Oregon Ducks and the Colorado Buffaloes

Where is this game being played?

Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado

What time does the game start and where can I find it on my television?

3:00 PM (PT) on Pac-12 Network

What is the point spread?

Oregon is favored by 39 points (-39)

What should I watch for when Oregon has the ball?

If you are a struggling alcoholic I have a great suggestion that will allow for you to enjoy clean living. Just play a little game and take a drink every time you see Oregon's first team offense punt. This is a great way to encourage sobriety because Colorado simply stands no chance to stop the Ducks. Colorado was a great story through two weeks as its defense led the way to a pair of wins they probably would have lost last year under Jon Embree. But the Buffs came crashing back down to earth last week against Oregon State. 

There is no doubt that Colorado's players are now more competent under Mike MacIntyre but they still don't have the talent or athleticism to get stops against a premier offense. The Beavers have a great offensive unit but it pales in comparison to what Colorado will see from Oregon on Saturday. The Beavers' Sean Mannion only completed 52% of his passes and OSU was totally incapable of running the ball as they have been all season. Oregon will come at Colorado with the Heisman Trophy front runner at QB and one of the nation's best ground attacks. That ground attack should suffer a little bit this week as superstar running back De'Anthony Thomas is unlikely to play after hurting his right ankle last week against California. It's worth noting that Thomas traveled with the team this week but he will probably be asked to wear street clothes and help coach young running backs Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner as they get the biggest workloads of their infantile college careers.

The fact that Thomas is well enough to travel indicates to me that he is probably well enough to play. He did lightly participate in practice this week but it makes no sense for him to play in a probable blowout this week and risk further damaging that ankle. Whether or not Oregon scores is not in doubt but it will be interesting to watch Marcus Mariota throw the ball particularly early in the game. Mariota has been a bit of a mixed bag so far this season. He has thrown nine touchdowns and no interceptions and his deep ball has improved evidenced by his yards per attempt jumping from eight to 9.4 despite a slipping completion percentage. His efficiency is the real concern as his completion percentage has dipped more than 12 points. Most of his trouble has come early in games when he has overshot open receivers. If Mariota can can be accurate and efficient from the start then he will be resting comfortably at by halftime. If he needs a quarter to get going like he has in Oregon's previous four games then he might need to take a couple snaps late into the third quarter.

What should I watch for when Colorado has the ball?

Colorado will not be able to score points and hang with the Ducks. The key for the Buffs will be whether they can be effective on third down and hold onto the ball, shortenign the game and giving their defense a chance to rest. Such a game plan would actually be breaking character for the Buffs as they have tried using a no huddle offense this year to run more plays. Colorado is running an average of 73 plays per game this year up from 69 last year and 65 the year before. But Oregon is the type of team that makes you change your tendencies and if Colorado tries to speed the game up and go snap for snap with the Ducks like Cal did, they will continuously put a tired defense on the field against an overwhelming offense and find themselves down 28-0 by the end of the 1st.

Colorado's early success came from QB Connor Wood making quick passes and good decisions trying to find his possession receivers Nelson Spruce and D.D. Goodson and using them to set up shots down field to Paul Richardson. The rain and wind in Corvallis last Saturday made it difficult to throw the ball but one positive that came out of it was a reinvigorated ground attack. True Freshman Michael Adkins made his college debut last week and ran for 98 yards while averaging seven yards per carry. MacIntyre felt the need to keep veteran back Christian Powell involved in the offense and Colorado's big halftime deficit forced him to mostly abandon the run in the second half. After Adkins played very well last week he has earned a chance to be Colorado's focal point going forward and he will be the key to keeping the score respectable in this game.

Oregon will use the same defensive game plan that they have deployed all year. the Ducks will use small numbers in the box on early downs and ask their big, long athletes up front to play two gap responsibilities and shut down the run with little help from the back end. This allows Oregon to keep their safeties deep and shut down deep passes (so don't expect much from Richardson) and jam and play physically against receivers on the outside. It also allows Oregon to spread out its defense and cover the whole field without worrying about getting gashed up the middle by opposing running backs. Colorado absolutely needs Adkins to get yards on first and second down or else this will one will turn into Oregon's game against Tennessee. In that game, Oregon was able to suffocate the Vols run game and force long third downs. At that point Oregon was able to use its sheer dominance in terms of skill and athleticism in the secondary to shut down Tennessee's passing attack without any semblance of a pass rush. If Colorado can't free up Richardson deep down field then they will need Wood to be effective throwing 10-20 yard passes. This really goes against Wood's abilties as he thrives on making easy throws short of the sticks and throwing long passes for Richardson to run under them. Wood's weakest area by far is his ability to hit those openings between the linebackers and defensive backs and if Adkins can't get yards then Wood will have to throw those passes all day which spells doom for Colorado.

Who should I bet on and who will win?

If you gamble on Pac-12 football then you have surely learned one thing this season: Always take Oregon and always lay the points. The Ducks are 4-0 against the spread this year and their point spreads keep climbing but their margin of victory still reaches expectations. This line should be a lot higher but is probably being brought down a little due to Thomas' tender ankle. In spite of losing their best play maker for this game, the one spot on the team that Oregon never has to worry about is having enough explosive play makers. Colorado's starters don't have the talent to keep up with the Ducks and Oregon's tempo will force Colorado to substitute to its backups who are simply unfit for Pac-12 play. No team has been able to run the ball against the Ducks and Colorado won't be the first. Oregon demolishes Colorado, 56-7.

The Pac-12 Journey 2013 Game 43: The quarterback controversey derby

No photographer listed (left), Thearon W. Henderson (right)
Who is playing?

The Washington State Cougars and the California Golden Bears.

Where is this game being played?

Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California

What time does the game start and where can I find it on my television?

1:00 PM (PT) on Fox Sports 1.

What is the point spread?

Washington State is favored by one and a half points (-1.5)
   
What should I watch for when Washington State has the ball?

Connor Halliday is still the starter but is Mike Leach finally ready to pull him? Halliday's struggles this season have been well documented. Halliday has thrown nine interceptions already this season, second to only Western Kentucky's Brandon Doughty and he was knocked out of last week's game. According to head coach Mike Leach, Halliday was healthy enough to go back in the game but he watched as his backup Austin Apodaca led a pair of late touchdown drives after Halliday was only able to produce one field goal in almost three full quarters of work. Halliday has gotten all the first team reps this week in practice but it is undeniable how much better the offense looked with Apodaca at QB. If Halliday struggles early especially against such a bad defense, will Leach make a move?

Speaking of that bad defense, it somehow managed to get even worse since the Oregon game one week ago. Cal's best pass rusher, linebacker Chris McCain was booted from the team for undisclosed reasons early in the week and on Friday, defensive back Alex Logan announced he is retiring from football due to injuries. Even after allowing just 381 yards of total offense last week, Cal is still giving up a ghastly average of 6.86 yards per play. Quite frankly, there is not one thing Cal does well on defense. Their defensive line can't get any pass rush whatsoever, their linebackers take poor angles and can't tackle, and their defensive backs can't cover or create turnovers. Other than that they've been doing just fine. Cal certainly isn't going to create anything with its defense and Washington State can expect their talented wide outs like Gabe Marks, Dominique Williams, and Kristoff Williams to get open consistently. This all comes down to WSU's quarterbacks whether its Halliday or Apodaca. Can Halliday hang on to his job and hit open receivers? Or will he struggle and perhaps cede his job to the more dynamic Apodaca?
What should I watch for when California has the ball?

California finds itself in a similar position after head coach Sonny Dykes made a move at QB during last week's debacle at Oregon. Cal's Jared Goff had been a breakout star leading the nation in passing yards but Dykes gave him the hook after just five offensive series against the Ducks. Cal's five possessions with Goff resulted in a grand total of 16 yards and resulted in four lost fumbles (two were by Goff) and a three and out. Dykes put redshirt freshman Zach Kline on the field to start Cal's sixth possession and he instantly had Cal moving as they crossed midfield for the first time in the game but of course Kline finished the drive by throwing an interception in the red zone. For his trouble, Goff finished 3/6 for 11 yards that were negated by -11 yards rushing and the two aforementioned fumbles. Unlike Apodaca who looked very good in Halliday's stead, Kline struggled plenty finishing 18/37 for 165 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

The two quarterbacks split first team reps on an almost 50-50 basis during the early part of game prep this week but on Thursday Dykes announced that Goff would still be his starter. Further to the contrary of Halliday, Goff doesn't get a chance to feast on a helpless defense this week. The Cougars looked very bad against Stanford last week but the Cougars have the type of defense that looks terrible against great teams but suffocates bad offenses. The Washington State defense that slapped USC silly hasn't gone anywhere, it was just incapable of showing up against Stanford.

The problem for Cal is they simply cannot pass block. Despite an offense built around screens and quick passes, Cal has already allowed 14 sacks in four games. Washington State does not have the best set of pass rushers but they do have a very physical front that has been able to win games but pushing back opposing offensive lines and choking off their opponents room to operate, particularly up the middle of the field. Stanford was able to use its imposing offensive line to neutralize WSU's front but if you honestly expect Cal to be able to replicate Stanford up front then you are either drunk or the biggest Cal homer around. 

For Cal to move the ball, Goff is going to need to put together some good drives early and build some confidence and keep Kline on the sidelines. the key is going to be whether Cal's talented wide receivers can make Washington State's defensive backs miss tackles. That was the real key to the Bears' ineptitude last week. It was not necessarily that they couldn't take care of the ball. After all, Cal committed all five of their turnovers in the 1st quarter. Rather, when Cal did complete passes and when they ran the ball, they weren't able to get any yards after contact which is key in an offense that runs most of its concepts within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. Cal's uncertainty at QB won't matter nearly as much in this game as most think. Rather, this game will come down to whether Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, Richard Rodgers, Brenden Bigelow, and Cal's other weapons can turn short plays into big gains.

Who should I bet on and who will win?

Home underdogs are always tempting especially in a league with so much parity but you only want to bet an underdog if its a good team and California simply is not. Goff played well enough in his first three games to suggest that last week was just an aberration. After all, Goff has thrown the ball very well in good conditions but was miserable in the cold rain up in Eugene last week. The forecast is calling for a bright and sunny day in Berkeley tomorrow so Goff should return to throwing the way he did in his first three games but conversely that clears the way for either Halliday or Apodaca to throw with ease as well. Cal should be able to score but given the Bears defense, the Cougars will score more. Washington State wins this one, 42-35.

The (early) Roundup: The best six interception passing performance of all-time

#12 UCLA 34, Utah 27

This game was a shootout that had both coaches thinking their defensive secondaries would be their downfall all season until it wasn't and they didn't. UCLA's Brett Hundley and Utah's Travis Wilson tore up their opposition in the first half and it looked like we were in store for a typical high scoring Pac-12 classic. UCLA began the game by driving right down the field with ease and were sparked by a 44 yard catch and run by Paul Perkins. On Perkins' big play, a Utah defender made a terrible mistake trying to tackle Perkins along the sideline instead of just pushing him out and that allowing Perkins to get an extra 20 yards or so and reach the one yard line. The play call was also indicative of UCLA's game plan trying to deal with Utah's pass rush. The Bruins attempted to run the ball (to little avail) with their tailbacks but mostly built their attack on screens, swing passes, and draw plays to get the ball out of Hundley's hands quickly before Utah's pass rush could make an impact.

Utah was facing a similar predicament as they too had a less than great offensive line facing a defense with a fearsome pass rush and a suspect secondary. The Utes also tried to run the ball unsuccessful but used quick passes very effectively as Wilson found Dres Anderson on a screen pass on Utah's first series that Anderson busted for a 54 yard touchdown. UCLA had a productive second drive that ended with a surprising pooch punt by Hundley on 4th and three from the Utah 35. After the teams traded three and outs, Utah took control of the game with a somewhat fluky touchdown. Remember the final play of Utah's overtime loss to Oregon State? Well Utah basically got their karmic justice for that play as a Wilson pass went right through the hands of a UCLA defender and straight to Utah receiver Sean Fitzgerald.

UCLA bounced back strong with consecutive touchdowns sandwiching a Wilson interception but Wilson put together a drive to get a field goal shortly before half and suddenly Utah was trailing 21-17 at the break with the first possession in the 3rd quarter and feeling like they could pull off the big upset. But, suddenly UCLA's defense decided to perfectly repeat their performance from the Nebraska game and took over. Just like the Nebraska game, UCLA struggled to make an impact with their front seven early and left their secondary to get picked apart in the first half. In the second half, UCLA's front rose to the occasion and took over the line of scrimmage and didn't even give Nebraska a chance to throw quick passes. UCLA was able to make that exact same adjustment to stop Utah cold in the second half, shutting the Utes out save for one field goal. Utah's second half possessions went like this: Interception, Interception, Punt, Interception, Punt, Punt, Interception, Field Goal, Interception.

UCLA replicated their defensive effort from the Nebraska game but unfortunately for them, their offense was not able to open up the flood gates and win comfortably. Utah's halftime adjustment was to start blitzing from all positions and all angles and they simply overwhelmed UCLA. Despite six interceptions and out-gaining Utah in terms of total yardage, UCLA was never able to create distance in the second half because of Utah's defense. The Bruins complete lack of production from their running backs left Hundley in far too many third and longs. On one such third down early in the 3rd quarter, Utah sent a jailbreak blitz that put four Utah defenders in Hundley's face. Hundley shook off a sack twice but once he was dead to rights he failed to eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds and foolishly tried to make a play. Hundley heaved the ball into coverage and was intercepted by Keith McGill for a 19 yard pick-six that tied the score at 24.

Utah's constant pressure and UCLA's inability to run the ball gave Utah many chances to take control of this game but UCLA's secondary finally stepped up and made plays. Travis Wilson threw six interceptions on the night but only one of them was a bad play by Wilson. Ishmael Adams made an amazing play to knock the ball out of a receivers hands and tip the ball to himself, twice the ball was deflected while still in Wilson's hands for interceptions, and twice a Utah receiver let the ball go off their hands and straight to a UCLA defender. Only one of Wilson's picks was not either a great defensive play or a mistake by his receiver as he badly overshot his man early in the fourth quarter and threw straight to Anthony Jefferson of UCLA. After the Jefferson interception, UCLA had the ball up 27-24 and finally found a way to make Utah pay for its blitzing. On a third and six, UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone recognized an overload blitz coming from both edges and checked to a QB draw up the middle. The result was a 36 yard touchdown run for Hundley and a 10 point lead with 3:33 remaining.

Wilson made a couple nice throws to lead a field goal drive that cut the lead to seven which led to sheer craziness. After making the 37 yard kick to cut the lead to one score, kicker Andy Phillips made a perfect onside kick that Trevor Reilly punched out of Shaq Evans' hands for a Utah recovery. It sure looked like Evans established possession of the ball with his knee on the ground but the call on the field was a Utah recovery and there was not enough evidence to overturn the call. By the way, in addition to being perfect on field goals and PATs, Phillips is still perfect on onside kick attempts as Utah has recovered both onside kicks that Phillips has attempted this season. Utah's final desperation drive almost failed to get out of the blocks as they immediately found themselves backed up to a 4th and 12 but an offside penalty on Anthony Barr (who had an otherwise spectacular night) and a completion over the middle to Anderson moved the chains. A 13 yard completion to Fitzgerald put Utah at the UCLA 23 yard line and made it feel for all the world that Utah was going to tie the game. But, Utah was backed into another 4th down and this time Wilson's pass was tipped and intercepted by Myles Jack to seal the victory for UCLA.

A few things are evident following this game. First of all, there might not be anyone better in the nation at making halftime defensive adjustments than Jim Mora. Between UCLA's second half performances against Nebraska and now Utah I can't think of any other team that has looked so bad in first halves and so completely unbreakable in second halves. The second is that UCLA does have an Achilles heel but it is not their secondary as many have theorized. UCLA's offensive line struggled all night against Utah and looked like they had never seen a blitz package before. Note to all defensive coordinators still to play the Bruins, you should probably add a few new blitzes to your game plan because chances are the Bruins won't be able to block it. Finally, and this won't ease their heart break but Utah fans need to hear this and know it, Utah does belong in the Pac-12. Two lackluster years in the conference had many wondering why Larry Scott ever invited Utah to join this conference but despite being 0-2 in Pac-12 play, Utah finally looks like a Pac-12 team. Utah is going to figure out how to close games in this conference before the end of the year. Make no mistake about it, this Utah team is miles ahead of where it was last year and the Utes will not be an easy out for anyone.

Thursday, 3 October 2013

The Pac-12 Journey 2013 Game 42: UCLA looks into the mirror and plays a less talented reflection

 
Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports (left), no photographer listed (right)


Who is playing?

The 12th ranked UCLA Bruins and the Utah Utes.

Where is this game being played?

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah.

What time does the game start and where can I find it on my television?

7:00 PM (PT) on Fox Sports 1.

What is the point spread?

 UCLA is favored by six points (-6).

What should I watch for when UCLA has the ball?

How will UCLA's offensive line match up with Utah's defensive line? A common theory out there is that the Bruins have one of the nation's best offense lines but that statement is only partially true. Sure the Bruins have some big, physical, and experienced bodies up front that can mash opponents and clear big lanes for their running backs. However, UCLA has struggled mightily to keep QB Brett Hundley upright in pass protection. In terms of pass blocking, UCLA had one of the worst lines in college football last year allowing 52 sacks which was more than any other team in college football not named Washington State. The Bruins had a very young line last year that struggled against complex blitz packages but those players have markedly improved this year. But, the Bruins still have their moments of ineptitude along the line which has led to five sacks allowed in three games against less than stellar defenses. The Bruins certainly haven't shown an indication so far that they are ready to handle a ferocious front like Utah's.

Utah's front led by ends Trevor Reilly and Nate Orchard have been nearly unblockable against both the run and the pass. The Utes have amassed 15 sacks in four games (tied for sixth most in the nation) and 31 tackles for loss. It's not like the Utes haven't had a chance to prove themselves against top offenses either. Two weeks ago the Utes faced a BYU team that had been averaging better than 350 rushing yards per game and held them to under four yards per carry. They mostly shut down Chuckie Keeton and Utah State in the fourth quarter (first three didn't go so well) of a comeback win in week one and against Oregon State...well actually Utah would like to forget that one.

UCLA will have a tough time accounting for Utah's defensive front and will likely have to all but abandon the run game at some point. However, if the Bruins can give Hundley time to throw the ball then the Bruins will be able to expose the one dirty little secret about Utah's otherwise great defense. Utah has quietly been a dumpster fire in the defensive secondary. Weber State and BYU didn't have the horses to expose Utah's back end but Utah State and Oregon State sure did. Chuckie Keeton of USU and Sean Mannion of OSU combined to go 58/85 passing for 757 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions against Utah. Hundley is a more talented passer than either Keeton or Mannion and although he doesn't have Brandin Cooks to throw to, Shaq Evans and Devin Fuller are elite Pac-12 caliber receivers who can run free against the Utes' secondary.

What should I watch for when Utah has the ball?

All you NFL junkies who love to scout future draft prospects should have your eyes glued to Utah's possessions. More specifically, you should be watching the duel between Utah's left tackle Jeremiah Poutasi and UCLA outside linebacker Anthony Barr. Poutasi is only a sophomore but he has quickly made a name for himself as of one of the Pac-12's best all around offensive lineman. What makes Poutasi so unique and such a difficult person for UCLA is his combination of size and athleticism. He is 340 pounds with elite movement skills and that spells trouble for the Barr, the Bruins' most dynamic player. Barr torched Pac-12 offensive tackles all last season but he couldn't get past Poutasi in last year's UCLA-Utah game. Barr had his worst game as a pass rusher last year against Utah as Poutasi held him to half a tackle for a loss and no sacks.

This is very important because normally UCLA is able to rely on Barr to be their play maker and ultimate difference maker on defense. Barr may very well get his revenge and dominate Poutasi but UCLA can't count on that happening. That means someone else somewhere on UCLA's front needs to consistently win at the point of attack and get pressure on Utah QB Travis Wilson. You might be surprised by how similar UCLA's defense is to Utah's, the Bruins debuted four new starters in their secondary this season and still do not have much of an indication as to whether any of those four new players can perform or not. The Bruins have not yet faced a particularly great pocket passer save for Nebraska's Taylor Martinez who is far more of a running quarterback. Martinez torched UCLA in the first half of the UCLA-Nebraska game with three touchdowns and nearly 150 yards. In the second half, UCLA was able to cover for their struggling secondary by blowing up the Cornhuskers' offensive line and preventing Martinez from getting any time to throw. UCLA will have to replicate that tonight against Utah.

The bright side for UCLA can be found in watching tape of Utah's game against BYU. As a great as Poutasi is, the rest of the Utes' offensive line can't quite live up to his standard. BYU used a very physical approach with a 3-4 defensive front and was able to push back Utah's offensive line and re-establish the line of scrimmage three yards deep in the backfield. This gave Utah no room to run the ball or Wilson any time and space to throw down field. UCLA also uses a 3-4 alignment and their linebackers and defensive linemen compare very favorably to BYU's from a physicality and athleticism stand point.

Who should I bet on and who will win?

Utah has home field advantage and some favorable match ups against the Bruins that they will be able to exploit and keep this game close. Utah will struggle to give Travis Wilson consistent opportunities to test UCLA's secondary but when they do, Utah will be able to move the ball. Ultimately, UCLA is an athletically superior team and their offensive line should be more adept at pushing back Utah's front. Bruins tailbacks Jordan James, Paul Perkins, and Malcolm Jones certainly won't have career nights against the Utes but UCLA's very good run blockers should at least give UCLA a chance to maintain some balance and stay ahead of the sticks. As for Utah, given the rest of their offensive line outside of Poutasi and their lesser talent at running back, they will have far more problems finding consistent offense.

The Pick: UCLA wins but Utah covers the spread, 31-27.

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

The Power Rankings Week 5

1. Oregon (Overall: 4-0, Conference: 1-0, Last Week: 1)
Scoring 55 points on just 381 yards of total offense amidst a hellish storm is incredibly impressive. Making your opponent implode to the tune of no touchdowns from its first team offense and under three yards per play in the same conditions is a sign of a truly dominant team.

2. UCLA (3-0, 0-0, LW: 2)
I don't know how they did it but UCLA managed to score another second half touchdown on Nebraska during their bye week, and oh whoops they scored another one just now.

3. Stanford (4-0, 2-0, LW: 4)
After a boring start to the season Stanford is rounding into form and punishing opponents with the most physically imposing roster in the conference.

4. Washington (4-0, 1-0, LW: 3)


Washington had another strong win and showed the killer instinct I had been waiting for them. However, the Huskies run defense looked a tad soft up the middle and their problems with dumb penalties still are not getting any better.

5. Arizona State (3-1, 1-1, LW: 6)
ASU's run defense has become a major concern that will cost them at least one more big game this year but if their offense continues to play the way it did against USC, the Devils' defense might not matter.

6. Oregon State (4-1, 2-0, LW: 7)
The Beavers finally put together a complete team game as the Beavers scored with ease and got consistent stops but the Beavers still can't run the ball. Despite a marked improvement on defense I doubt the Beavers will be able to replicate such a performance against a team better than Colorado.

7. Utah (3-1, 0-1, LW: 8)
Moved up one spot despite not playing last week.

8. Arizona (3-1, 0-1, LW: 5)
After a soft non-conference schedule the Wildcats were exposed by Washington. Arizona's defense is no joke after all as the Wildcats proved their mettle over and over again against the Huskies. However, we now know definitively that B.J. Denker is not a Pac-12 caliber starting quarterback and the Wildcats' offense will keep opponents in the game as long as he is out there.

9. Washington State (3-2, 1-1, LW: 10)
Washington State has found itself in some serious self doubt as their defensive line that imposed its will during the first four games of the year was manhandled by Stanford. Furthermore, Wazzou's sketchy QB situation has reached a fever pitch after Connor Halliday struggled once again and Austin Apodaca came on in relief and showed some flashes of brilliance.

10. USC (3-2, 0-2, LW: 11)
USC's offense finally turned the corner against the Sun Devils just as its defense fell apart. The result was USC firing head coach Lane Kiffin in a parking lot at four in the morning and leaving Ed Orgeron to pick up the pieces. We'll have to wait until next Thursday to see what happens to USC with Kiffin's toxic culture of poor leadership removed from the sideline.

11. Colorado (2-1, 0-1, LW: 9)
The resurrection of Colorado football and its transformation into a competent team under Mike MacIntyre was a fun story for a month but it all fell apart against Oregon State. Colorado just does not have the depth or quality of athletes to compete with most teams in the Pac-12. Brighter days are coming in Boulder but they are going to take a little while longer.

12. California (1-3, 0-1, LW: 12)
The Bear's defense is still atrocious and now their offense might be coming apart at the seems under a new found QB controversy. Cal looked like a team that belonged in the Mountain West against Oregon and there are several teams left on the Bears schedule that will make them feel that way again.

The Award Tracker:

Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year:
1. QB Marcus Mariota, So., Oregon (LW: 1)
Poor weather wreaked havoc on Mariota's accuracy and efficiency but he still found time to account for over 200 yards and three touchdowns in one half of work.

2. WR Brandin Cooks, Jr., Oregon State (LW: 3)
After Cooks won the match up against Colorado's Paul Richardson, there is no question he is playing at a higher level than any other receiver in college football. Cooks caught nine passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and maintained in his national lead in every major receiving category. Cooks now has 52 catches (12 more than second place), 807 yards (116 more than second place), and nine touchdowns.

3. QB Sean Mannion, Jr., Oregon State (LW: 2)

I decided to flip Mannion and Cooks because despite Mannion's career high production against Colorado because he didn't actually play all that well. He only completed 52% of his passes and a number of his longest completions were bailed out by Cooks adjusting to poorly thrown balls. He threw an interception and was sacked twice including a fumble. He's still the best pocket passer in the Pac-12 but I think as of right now Cooks is more indispensable to the Beavers than Mannion.

Honorable Mentions:
WR Paul Richardson, Jr., Colorado

RB Bishop Sankey, Jr., Washington

QB Brett Hundley, So., UCLA

RB De'Anthony Thomas, Jr., Oregon

QB Keith Price, Sr., Washington

Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year:
1. LB Anthony Barr, Sr., UCLA (LW: 1)
Barr had the week off but he's still the most intimidating player in the Pac-12. With Will Sutton dropping off, Barr is now the one singular defensive player in the Pac-12 that teams have to game plan for on every single snap.

2. DE Scott Crichton, Jr., Oregon State (LW: NR)

Crichton started the season slowly but boy has he ever woken up in a hurry. Crichton was invisible in the Beavers' disastrous opener against Eastern Washington but since then he has recorded eight tackles for loss in the past four games. Oregon State has an offense that can win games by itself but if Crichton keeps performing the way he is right now, the Beavers could be pretty good on defense too.

3. S Tra'Mayne Bondurant, Jr., Arizona(LW: 2)
Bondurant hasn't made the impact in recent weeks that he did at the start of the year but that is largely because the word about him has gotten out and teams are avoiding him. Bondurant has the talent and play making ability to create more turnovers in the future and that has made him the focal point of one of the Pac-12's finest defenses.

Honorable Mentions:
LB Addison Gilliam, Fr., Colorado

DT Leonard Williams, So., USC

S Deone Bucannon, Sr., Washington State

DE Josh Shirley, Jr., Washington

DE Trevor Reilly, Sr., Utah


Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year:
1. QB Jared Goff, California (LW: 1)
Goff was going to go uncontested for this award but suddenly his season is up in the air after he got an early benching against Oregon. Goff accounted for exactly zero yards of total offense against the Ducks before being benched toward the end of the 1st quarter. He's been splitting first team reps in practice so far this week but until he actually loses his job, I'm going to go ahead and keep him at the top.
 
2. RB Justin Davis, USC (LW: 2)
Maybe now that Lane Kiffin is out of the picture Davis will finally get consistent work in the Trojans' offense. He certainly deserves it after rushing for 122 yards and three touchdowns against ASU. Davis will always be behind Tre Madden and if Silas Redd gets healthy that will complicate things for him further but, Davis has shown clear ability to be a star and as long as he keeps performing he'll get the ball.

3. RB Michael Adkins, Colorado (LW: NR)
There weren't a lot of positives to come out of Colorado's three week layoff but Adkins might have been the only one. Adkins emerged during practice over the course of Colorado's consecutive bye weeks and had a great debut performance against Oregon State rushing for 98 yards. Adkins is going to be Colorado's feature back going forward and with Goff in limbo and Davis potentially getting crowded in USC's backfield, Adkins could wind up winning this award.
 
Honorable Mentions:
RB Paul Perkins, UCLA

RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon

RB Khalfani Muhammad, California

WR Kenny Lawlor, California

Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year:
1. LB Addison Gilliam, Colorado (LW: 1)
There's a reason I have now added Gilliam as an honorable mention for overall defensive player of the year. Gilliam was a monster again against the Beavers recording 13 tackles including one for a loss and a pass break up. Colorado's layoff put Gilliam out of sight somewhat but after his great game on Saturday he is now leading the conference with 11.33 tackles per game, no one else in the Pac-12 is averaging better than 8.8.

2. LB Scooby Wright, Arizona (LW: 3)

Wright had a big day against Washington recording nine tackles and one for a loss. Wright's productivity and continued presence in the second level of Arizona's defense is a big reason for the Wildcats big turnaround on that side of the ball.

3.  LB Myles Jack, UCLA (LW: 2)
UCLA had another week off but Jack remains a starter on arguably the Pac-12's most talented defense and has really impressed this year.

Honorable Mentions:

DB Daquawn Brown, Washington State

DL Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA

LB Hardy Nickerson, California

S Su'a Cravens, USC

Pac-12 Coach of the Year:
1. Jim Mora, UCLA (LW: 1)


2. Steve Sarkisian, Washington (LW: NR)


3. Mark Helfrich, Oregon (LW: 3)


Honorable Mentions:
Mike MacIntyre, Colorado

Kyle Whittingham, Utah

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Deciphering USC's head coaching search

As you may have heard, USC has a vacancy within its football program. The Trojans have moved on from Lane Kiffin and promoted Ed Orgeron on an interim basis. As much as fans of other Pac-12 teams want to see Orgeron receive the full-time gig and further drive the Trojans into the ground, that isn't going to happen. USC will embark on a lengthy and tireless search for their new head coach. Because they removed Kiffin so early in the season USC has carved out about two months to carefully operate their search before other jobs start to open up. However, USC's window won't last forever as the Texas job (a better position than USC) is likely to be open by the end of the season.

So what is USC looking for in a head coach? They want someone with head coaching experience and a proven long term track record. USC took a chance on a young coach last time around and it blew up in their face. The Trojans need someone with extensive experience who has won consistently. They want someone who understands USC's tradition and more importantly, it's standing within the city of Los Angeles. For USC alums and administration, it is unacceptable to be looking up at UCLA in the national rankings and Pac-12 standings and to be losing recruiting battles to the Bruins for the top LA high school recruits. Finally, believe it or not, but academics does matter in this situation. USC fans certainly don't care about it, the boosters who will pay the next coach's salary probably don't care, and even Pat Haden who will ultimately make the hire might not care about the academic side of the football program.

However, Haden won't be able to make a final decision without the blessing of USC's President and Board of Trustees and you're kidding yourself if you don't think academics matter to those parties. President Max Nikias and the BOT won't ratify a new coaches contract unless they believe the new guy will maintain a high graduation rate of his players and uphold USC's standing as an institution. USC isn't even one of the top five most prestigious academic institutions in the state of California but it is a private school with very high standards and a lot of powerful people in administration who think the school is on the same level academically as Stanford or UCLA.

A lot of people think USC wants a coach with NFL experience based on their history but that might not necessarily be true this time around. You have to keep in mind that this is Haden's first head coaching search for his football program. He inherited Lane Kiffin from his predecessor Mike Garrett who highly valued professional experience. Garrett hired three football coaches during his tenure: Paul Hackett, Pete Carroll and Kiffin, all of whom were NFL retreads. Garrett also valued professional experience in other sports as his final two hires for the men's basketball program were former NBA head coaches Tim Floyd and Kevin O'Neill. Haden has had to make one major coaching hire in his tenure when he fired O'Neill last season and replaced him with Andy Enfield. Haden did not consider a single NBA candidate last year and ultimately settled on a mid-major coach from Florida Gulf Coast University. Haden may very well settle on an NFL coach but we have seen no clear indication that Haden values NFL experience the way Garrett did.

With that in mind, there are a lot of names that have been thrown out for this job. Some are realistic possibilities while others are preposterous. First, let's dispel the notion that any of the following names have any interest whatsoever in coaching the Trojans:

Jon Gruden: Somehow Gruden comes up as a candidate for every NFL job and every significant college job. The truth of the matter is that Gruden has been out of coaching for five years now and the fire inside him for coaching might be extinguished. He's still relatively young at 50 years old compared to most coaches but he has four years left on his contract with ESPN that is rumored to be worth more than four million dollars per year. Gruden's ESPN contract is worth more than all but four coaches at the NCAA level and instead of working 16 hours a day all year round, he works once a week for four months and gets to do things like this. Gruden hasn't shut the door on returning to coaching but he sure as heck isn't going to take a college job.

Nick Saban: A lot of people think USC has more money than God and will be able to get whoever they want. If that were true, then why not pursue the best college coach in America? Well USC is not nearly as flushed with cash as some people think and Saban has no interest in moving West. Saban has put his roots down in the southeast and doesn't want to move to California where he will no longer have a pipeline to the southern recruits that he has spent the last 20 years getting access to. There is a reason Saban took the jobs at LSU, the Miami Dolphins, and Alabama because he only wants to be in the south. Even if there was mutual interest between Saban and USC, Saban will be the top target for Texas and USC has no hope of winning a bidding war with the Longhorns.

Jeff Fisher: USC's love of NFL coaches is well documented and between that and Fisher's status as a USC alum, Fisher has become a dream candidate for Trojan fans but the thought of him taking the USC job is totally unrealistic. Fisher has been coaching at the NFL level since 1985 and has no college coaching experience whatsoever, not even as a graduate assistant. With the exception of Saban and Bobby Petrino, no sitting NFL head coach has left an NFL job for a college job. Saban and Petrino were long term college coaches who gave the NFL a try and quickly found out it wasn't for them. Fisher is an NFL lifer and even if he is on the hot seat with the St. Louis Rams he won't be fired until the NFL coaching carousel starts in January, long after the expiration of USC's internal deadline to install a new coach. Even if Fisher is fired by the Rams, I think he would rather retire than step down to the college level.

Chris Petersen: The Boise State legend might be the most preferred candidate for USC fans but he has been the top target for top jobs before including Florida, UCLA, Arizona State, Arkansas, and Washington among others. Petersen has repeatedly said he is happy in Boise and did not get into coaching for money. He doesn't want to deal with the stress and pressure of coaching at a place like USC and he has proven that time and time again with his actions.

Mike Riley: Riley comes up because he has been wildly successful in the Pac-10/12 for the better part of the last decade and he is familiar with USC as he was the offensive coordinator and QB coach at USC from 1993-1996. Thanks to his history with USC and success in the conference, he was offered the job both in 2001 and 2010 and rebuffed the Trojans on both occasions. Like Petersen, Riley is happy at a small school where fans are happy with eight wins and will build a statue of him for it. He has proven that he has no interest in the USC job and the third time won't be the charm for USC if they call him again.

Kevin Sumlin: Sumlin might actually be a realistic candidate. A lot of people close to him say he is eager about moving up the coaching ladder and trying to rise to the top of the coaching profession. However, between Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Houston, and Texas A&M again, Sumlin has spent the last 12 years of his life establishing himself in Texas and building a reputation as a top recruiter within the state. I don't think Sumlin will be at Texas A&M for the long haul but I think he is going to patiently wait for the NFL to come calling rather than make a lateral move to a place like USC where he will no longer be able to build his roster on Texas recruits.

Those six names will come up frequently as possible targets for USC but will not be the Trojans' new coach under any circumstances. Of course, someone has to be the next coach at USC and the school's brain trust will be able to have their pick of an exciting crop of prospects. These are the names to pay attention to:

James Franklin: If you can win at Vanderbilt, you can win anywhere and if other programs want you, then you probably shouldn't stay at a place like Vandy for too long. Franklin has been a hot coaching prospect for about three years now because of his energy and passion and the way he inspires his players. He took over a pathetic program and turned it into a quality team almost overnight. If not for being in the SEC and constantly facing guaranteed losses from the likes of Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, Vanderbilt would be a perennial top 25 team under Franklin. Franklin has greatly stressed academics and maintained a very high graduation rate. He has also consistently won recruiting battles against top SEC teams and has qualified his high school recruits despite Vanderbilt's ridiculously high admissions standards. Franklin loves the college game and the traditions that surround it. He doesn't know much about USC and its traditions but he would embrace USC and its history with open arms.

Art Briles: Briles has become an enormously successful head coach at Baylor and like Franklin, he took over a historically terrible team and quickly built it into a borderline national title contender. To tell you the truth, I haven't heard Briles' name connected to USC all that much but he absolutely should be. If USC wants to compete in the new age Pac-12 and modernize its offense then they have to get a guy like Briles who is regarded as a true offensive genius and one of the best QB gurus in the college game. Briles seems happy at Baylor but the chance to coach at a place like USC is a huge step up in prestige and salary. Briles traded in the Houston job for Baylor and at the time Houston was a better football school than Baylor so I think Briles will have his eyes set on a great job like USC. Of course like Sumlin above, Briles has built his career on recruiting in Texas and he might be reluctant to leave that behind. If the Texas job opens up and UT officials pursue Briles, then Briles will pick Texas over USC. However, if the Longhorns don't court him and USC does offer, I think the Baylor coach would jump on the opportunity.

Jack Del Rio: As a former professional head coach and a USC alum, Del Rio fits the profile of a head Trojan. Unlike Fisher, Del Rio is not a current head coach but is rather the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos and is therefore clear to jump on an offer from USC. I believe Del Rio will be a serious candidate at USC and he would accept the job if offered but I don't think USC should want him. Del Rio has no college coaching experience at all and as a defensive coach, he would not be addressing USC's biggest issues, QB development and overall offensive productivity. I know USC was terrible on defense against Arizona State but that had more to do with scholarship sanctions than Clancy Pendergast. USC built a big enough body of work in its first four games to suggest their defense is better under Pendergast. Right now, USC does not have the depth to hang with the top teams in the Pac-12 but bringing in a defensive coach like Del Rio and pushing Pendergast away would be counter-productive. Because Del Rio has no college experience, there is no evidence to suggest that Del Rio has the connections to find a successful college offensive coordinator who can develop quarterbacks and call plays.  Del Rio will be in the mix for this job but USC would probably be smart to ignore him.

Pat Fitzgerald: I'm skeptical whether Fitzgerald wants to leave Northwestern. He is an NU alum and has been the head coach there for seven years now. He has been courted before but not by any schools as powerful as USC. He's also never been hotter as a commodity than right now as Northwestern is a top 25 team and is a legitimate front runner in the Big Ten. If Fitzgerald manages to upset Ohio State this week, Northwestern will be in the cat bird seat to reach the Rose Bowl and Fitzgerald will rise to the top of the wanted list for every team with a vacancy. Fitzgerald will have a hard time turning his back on his alma mater but a job as big as USC could sway him. Fitzgerald may be a defensive coach but he would still be a great fit at USC. Northwestern has had the best graduation rate in college football for several years now and Fitzgerald has unanimous respect from his players. Fitzgerald's players respect him and listen to him in ways that USC's players never did for Kiffin. he also made a great OC hire four years ago when he brought in Mick McCall who implemented the spread offense at Northwestern and made the Wildcats one of the premier offensive teams in the Big Ten. If Fitzgerald can bring McCall with him to USC, he would be a great hire and Haden would be stupid not to at least give Fitzgerlad's agent a phone call.

Tim DeRuyter: DeRuyter would be a fall back option for USC if the prospective coaches above said no but he probably should be a front runner. DeRuyter has built a great program at Fresno State and has the Bulldogs undefeated and in position as the best non-AQ program in college football in his second year at Fresno. DeRuyter is from a defensive background but he has a noted offensive coordinator/QB coach at Fresno in Dave Schramm who has made a name for himself developing QB Derek Carr into a potential first round draft pick. DeRuyter understands the college football culture in California and the local recruiting climate and he can give USC unprecedented access to Texas recruits thanks to his time as defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. His two teams at Fresno State have been very well disciplined and a lot of people have been very impressed by his command over Fresno's locker room. DeRuyter would not be a flashy hire like Franklin or Briles but I think he would be an ideal fit for what USC needs. Of course, there is one other guy who would have to say no before USC calls DeRuyter...

Steve Sarkisian: Sarkisian's name has been the most loudly heard within the USC fan base since Kiffin was fired, more so than Del Rio, Fisher, or anyone else. The reasons why are obvious, Sarkisian was an assistant at USC under Pete Carroll from 2001-2008 (save for one year in 2004 when was with the Oakland Raiders). Now of course USC hired a Carroll understudy with USC connections last time around and he was a complete failure. So why would USC go down this road again? Well Sarkisian is a far superior coach for one. Instead of a disastrous venture into the NFL and one ill-begotten season at Tennessee, Sarkisian parlayed his USC success into another Pac-12 job and has been a proven success. It took him a little while to turn things around at Washington and his job security was sketchy at times but in his fifth year in Seattle, Sarkisian has successfully rebuilt an 0-12 team into a borderline national title contender.

Sarkisian is a great offensive coach who coordinated great offenses for USC under Carroll but smartly abandoned his antiquated pro style system and brought in a new no-huddle spread offense this year that has revolutionized Washington's program. He also has a loaded staff at Washington that he can bring to USC led by defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox who is one of the best in the game and defensive line coach Tosh Lupoi who is regarded as one of the premier recruiters on the west coast. Sarkisian would modernize USC's offense, stabilize its defense, and beat UCLA in recruiting for all the top players in Southern California. Sarkisian should be USC's top target and the future of USC might come down to whether Sarkisian is willing to turn his back on Washington and make a lateral move within the conference that will surely lead to an ugly breakup in Seattle. Personally, I don't think Sark will leave Seattle. He was offered the USC job in 2010 but turned it down saying that he felt UW was a "dream job" and "not a stepping stone." He toiled for five years reshaping the worst team in college football into a contender and I don't think he is about to flush that all away so he can return to USC and inherit another rebuilding job that is in almost as dire a situation as what we walked into when he arrived in Seattle back in 2009.