Oregon Tabbed as Preseason Favorite

Last night I decided on the eve of Pac-12 media day to go through the entire conference schedule and pick all the winners on first instinct in order to formulate my own Pac-12 preseason poll. As it turns out, my results are exactly the same as the official pac-12 preseason media poll revealed today which is as follows:

North:
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. California
6. Washington State

South:
1. UCLA
2. Arizona State
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. Utah
6. Colorado

Oregon barely won the North poll over Stanford with 145 points to Stanford's 139 but was a little more decisive in the title winner poll, taking 14 out of 25 votes. By the way, how are there only 25 voters for this? The SEC had 243 people voting on their conference champion at SEC Media Days. Hey Larry Scott, I'm available, I watch every snap of all Pac-12 football games and I like voting for stuff. Give me a call buddy.

What does this mean? not much really. You might remember that USC garnered 83% of the first place votes last year and ended up in Waco, Texas while Stanford did not get a single first place vote. I do think this provides a bit of a window into the thinking of the Pac-12 media as a whole and it shows that less and less people are buying into Oregon's demise. When Chip Kelly jetted for Philadelphia and impending sanctions were still looming, it was all doom and gloom and a lot of prominent voices were trying to draw parallels between 2013 Oregon and 2010 USC. Then the sanctions finally dropped and revealed benign punishments, and then media folk got a chance to start listening to Mark Helfrich work a room and suddenly, as evidenced by the poll above, people are back on the Oregon bandwagon.

I'll have a recap with important tidbits and quotes and what everything means from all things Pac-12 media day as well as the next player in the Top 40 countdown up tonight. Stay tuned y'all.

40 Players in 40 Days: Numbers 36 and 35

That’s right, it’s time for the first double dip in the countdown as well as the only time you will see a player from a certain pair of teams on this list. One player from both Colorado and Washington State made the list, and today I present both of them together. No of course I didn’t plan to do it like this* and yes, I actually do think Colorado and Washington State have a player good enough to be in the top 40.**Checking in at number 36 is Colorado Senior Defensive End Chidera Uzo-Diribe. Later at number 35 will be Washington State Safety Deone Bucannon.

*Actually did plan this

**No seriously, I think both of these guys are really good and they could at least crack the two-deep at Oregon or Stanford.

Once again, a quick recap:

40. WR Chris Harper, Cal

39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC

38. S Alden Darby, Arizona St.

37. LT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon

 (photo cred: Doug Pensinger - Getty Images)

Uzo-Diribe has lived an unfortunate career thus far. He’s actually been very productive, racking up 20 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks in three seasons, most of which has occurred in the past two seasons. Of course, he also happens to play for arguably the worst team in the conference history. Washington may have gone 0-12 in 2008 but it didn’t bookend that season with a one or two win season which is what Colorado has experienced. The Buffs have won exactly four games in two years since joining the conference. I also think Uzo-Diribe is treated somewhat unfairly because he is the best player on a defense that has surrendered 6.85 yards per play the last two years as well as 46 points per game last season (this is the part where you throw up in your mouth).

You can’t let those team numbers color your opinion of Uzo-Diribe on an individual basis. Whether you have a team of Uzo-Diribe and 10 stiffs or J.J. Watt and 10 stiffs the results are going to be the same either way. You will suck, and you will give up yards, a lot of yards. Uzo-Diribe had 7 sacks last season, good for 12^th in the conference, ahead of more hyped players like Josh Shirley, Datone Jones, Cassius Marsh, Joe Kruger, and Wes Horton. I usually have videos to help supplement my point with these players however, I unfortunately can’t find anything today. When you search for “Chidera Uzo-Diribe” on YouTube you only get a few interviews. When you search for “Colorado Buffs Football Highlights,” this is the only result:

here is my deal with Uzo-Diribe. He’s mired in the worst losing culture I have ever seen in the conference. He’s asked to play DE in a 4-3, not at all suited to his size and athleticism, and he’s the only player on the field for CU’s defense who is worth a damn. Even Lawrence Taylor would fly under the radar in that situation. I honestly think Uzo-Diribe is going to turn into a solid pro player and there are at least a few other people who feel pretty good about him too. He might have to go to Canada and/or hang around on practice rosters for a while like Cameron Wake or Chris Clemons. But, given his natural size, his athleticism as a 3-4 OLB prospect, the production he’s put out despite his situation, and his captaincy of the Pac-12 all-name team, I feel confident saying Uzo-Diribe will be a tremendous sleeper prospect in the NFL Draft and a guy who could eventually become a superstar in the CFL and one day earn a decent NFL contract.

Side note: speaking of Colorado and the CFL, I’m writing this while watching a CFL game featuring Dan Hawkins as one of the coaches. Feel free to let some more vomit into your mouth Buffs fans.

Deone Bucannon’s stardom is a little easier to make a case for. First of all, I can just point to the 2012 All Pac-12 team, where Bucannon is a 2^nd team member. More importantly, I can point out Bucannon’s impressive stats which include 106 tackles, sixth in the conference and second among non-linebackers. He was also fourth in the conference in solo tackles with 65. Bucannon also flashed play making ability against the pass by racking up four interceptions. The best stat based case I can make for Bucannon though would be the improvement of Wazzou’s defense over the course of the season.

(photo cred: Jake Roth - US Pressswire)

In the first four games of the season WSU gave up 471.5 yards per game against fairly weak competition (BYU, Eastern Washington, UNLV, and Colorado). That number improved drastically during the middle four games to 321 yards per game, a stretch that included match ups with Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford (pre-Hogan but still). That number jumped up to 404.25 for the final four games but if you remove that one disastrous outing against Arizona State, the number becomes 385.33.

Bucannon was at the center of Wazzou’s defense and his production and leadership means he deserves a lot of credit for Wazzou’s massive improvement over the course of the season. Here’s a game tape of Bucannon against Oregon.

I’m not a particularly big fan of this game film because this wasn’t one of his better games but it’s the only extended film of Bucannon I could find online. Bucannon never does anything particularly special even on his interception which was just an awful throw by Marcus Mariota. But watching the film, you can see Bucannon is around the ball on every play and he never misses any tackles. He’s the most adequate player you can find without getting a player who truly wows you. Despite his production and what he means to the Cougars I don’t have him higher for a few reasons. He’s a senior and a three year starter so I think we’ve seen all he can do at the college level whereas most of the players in front of him on this list have more potential to develop into better playerswhile in college. Also, positions matter on this list and I just don;t think Safeties are as important as QBs, WRs, CBs, Linemen, etc. The bigger reason I have him lower is because despite being pretty much maxed out as a college player, he’s still only projected as a mid-round pick.

Still, Bucannon is one of finest Defensive Backs in the conference. I have him as the second best returning Safety in the Pac-12. He’s a great player and both he and Chidera Uzo-Diribe are wholly deserving of being top 40 players despite the poor teams they play on.

40 Players in 40 Days: Number 37

(photo cred: Mark J. Rebilas - USA Today Sports)

As the countdown hits our fourth member we finally reach our first member of the Oregon Ducks. As a bonus, I’m going to give you a break from reading stat lines because today’s subject is Oregon Sophomore Left Tackle Tyler Johnstone. As always, here’s a recap of the countdown so far before we begin:

40. WR Chris Harper, Cal

39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC

38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State

There are no stats that I can point to that will make my point because with offensive linemen there never are. However, there is one name I can put out there that illustrates how good Johnstone was last year. That name would be Kyle Long.

Long, if you don’t remember was drafted 20^th overall out of Oregon by the Chicago Bears back in April. The Bears drafted Long to play Guard but hope he will develop into a star Left Tackle and why wouldn’t they? Long is 6-6, 311 pounds, he is an elite athlete who once was able to play college baseball even with his big frame, and he has impressive football bloodlines being the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long and the younger brother of perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher Chris Long. Even with all of that working in Long’s favor, he was not able to play Left Tackle last year. Yes Johnstone was so good as a redshirt freshman that he forced a senior mere months from entering the NFL as a top-20 pick to play Guard.

What makes Johnstone so good? You can start with his fit within Oregon’s system. Oregon doesn’t have much use for big hulking tackles at 330 pounds who can’t run worth a lick. In the Ducks spread attack, a lineman has to be athletic, nimble, and in great shape, able to run over a mile in one game and remain just as effective in the 4^th quarter as he is in the 1^st. Johnstone stands 6-6 and has long arms and an athletic build which allows him to keep pass rushers at a distance while his movement skills allow him to get an explosive burst off the line to take advantage against even the most athletic Defensive Ends on running plays. Johnstone breaks the mold of most elite Left Tackles in that he is not bulky, in fact he isn’t even 300 pounds. Johnstone checks in at 292 which is huge for an average human being but quite undersized for a Left Tackle.

Johnstone’s size creates a bit of a catch-22 for him. On the one hand, his smaller size improves quicknesses and allows him to get to the second level on running plays and provide great blocks downfield to spring big plays. It also allows him to mirror pass rushing moves and stay with athletic sack artists step for step. To exhibit the good side of Tyler Johnstone, take a look at this game film from the Civil War.

Johnstone only played the first half and was pulled due to what looked like a foot injury but while he was in he pitched a shutout. Going up against 1^st team All Pac-12 performer Scott Crichton, Johnstone prevented Crichton from getting a single tackle while he was in the game. Watch the film, Crichton never gets past Johnstone off the line, not even once.

Unfortunately, I would be remiss if I did not talk about the bad side of being 292 pounds at Left Tackle. That bad side of Johnstone’s game was on full display in Oregon’s dream crushing loss to Stanford. You can view the damage below:

Johnstone faced another all conference standout in Henry Anderson and got beaten like a drum. Anderson piled up 7 total tackles (5 solo), 2.5 TFLs, a sack and a forced fumble, leading the way for one of the most impressive team defensive performances in Pac-12/10/8 history (considering context). Johnstone helped build Anderson's star. Without this game, I doubt Henry Anderson would have received all-conference honors.

 
So where does Johnstone go from here? I’m not sure, I don’t think any freshman has ever reached his full potential so there is certainly room for growth. He needs to get stronger and play more physically for sure but he needs to be careful not to add too much weight and take away from his athleticism and movement skills. I think he has great technique and he is a natural fit at the position but he still needs some fine tuning and some time in the weight room before he is ready to be an All Pac-12 pick. But, he’s only entering his Sophomore season. He’s got time on his side and the sky is the limit.

Pac 12 News and Notes: July 24

There are a few pieces of news floating around today that are rather important to the Pac-12 race this season but don't have quite enough substance to warrant an entire article so I'm combining them into one piece. Here is what's going on in the conference and what it means:

1. Scott Frost will call plays on offense for Oregon - Most people seem to have bought into the continuity that Oregon is fostering by promoting Mark Helfrich in the wake of Chip Kelly's departure. Everything is going to look exactly the same except for the absence of Oregon's play caller from the past six years. We've been wondering whether Helfrich or new Offensive Coordinator Scott Frost (previously the Wide Receivers coach) would call plays. Helfrich finally delivered an answer today in an interview with ESPN by confirming that it will be Frost making play calls from the booth.

This is interesting for a couple reasons. First, this sets up Scott Frost to rocket up the list of hot head coaching candidates. It has long been rumored that Frost wants to climb the ladder and become a big time head coach and he was even a finalist for the Louisiana Tech job this offseason. Scott is a bright young coach, a good recruiter, and someone who is beloved by his players. Getting the OC gig and a chance to call plays will make him even more attractive to other programs (so long as Oregon's offense remains productive and let's face it, Oregon would be productive with me calling plays). Also, as a former starting QB on a national title winner, he has a certain credibility he can bring to a locker room that most other coaches can't match. I think this announcement by Helfrich sets up Frost to become a head coach of a team in one of the five major conferences within the next two or three years.

The other and more important reason in the context of Oregon's championship hopes is what this will potentially do to Oregon's style of play and its pace. The last four seasons, Oregon's plays have been called from the sideline by Chip Kelly. However, during Kelly's two seasons as OC under Mike Bellotti, he called plays from the booth which is where Frost will disseminate his calls for at least this upcoming season. I don't think you'll see much difference in the style of plays and the run/pass ratio. Even under Kelly, the gameplan and the playbook were a collaborative effort and everyone on staff had input on a week to week basis and that will stay the same under Helfrich. With all assistant coaches back and only Wide Receiver coach Matt Lunick being a new voice to the offensive staff, I don't think the playbook will change very much at all. As for run/pass ratio and the spots on the field Oregon tries to attack, that will change week to week based on Oregon's opponent. There has been much conjecture about Helfrich possibly making Oregon into more of a passing team but truthfully, Oregon has talent at every position on the field and they will lean on whatever advantage they can find against certain opponents. Helfrich and Frost aren't going to approach every week saying "we need to call at least 40 pass plays." Instead, they'll break down the opposing defense, find weaknesses on film, and gameplan accordingly. They'll have a run based offense one week and a pass based offense the next week, and a perfect balance the week after.

One difference that could take place might be pace. I've been hearing a school of thought today that with the play caller in the booth, it takes a few extra seconds to get the play call to the players on the field and as a result the offense will move more slowly. Oregon might choose to slow down at times, but it won't be because Frost is in the booth. According to sports-reference.com, Oregon ran 79.1 plays per game in 2007 and 73.7 in 2008 when Kelly made calls from the booth. That number actually dropped to 68.1 with Kelly on the sideline in 2009 before jumping back up to 78.8 in 2010, down to 72.5 in 2011, and finally, way up to 81.1 last year. Bottom line is Oregon is going to operate very quickly and be aggressive whether plays are being called on the field, in the booth, or from the parking lot.

2. UCLA S Dietrich Riley has retired due to injury - It's always sad when young players are forced to give up the sport they love, particularly guys like Riley who showed tremendous promise and probably could have made it to the NFL if not for his bad luck. Riley was a four-star prospect out of California in 2010 and broke into the Bruins secondary right away and showed a lot of promise in a reserve role. Riley was having a solid sophomore season in 2011 with 36 tackles and three pass break ups in just eight games before a violent collision with Cal RB Isi Sofele ended his season and necessitated a fusing of two of his vertebrae. Riley took a medical redshirt in 2012 and wanted to come back this year but lingering concerns in his neck have forced him to give up football. although I hate to see careers end like this, I am happy to see Riley make a rational decision with the rest of his life in mind. Here's to hoping Riley can finish his degree (if he hasn't already) and go on to have a prosperous life away from football.

3. Arizona S Patrick Onwuasor has been booted from the team - While Dietrich Riley has made a very smart decision to end his career for his own good, Onwuasor has made some very dumb decisions that has cost him his career. Onwuasor has been charged with a series of drug related offenses (four felonies in all) and has subsequently been removed from Arizona's roster. He played sparingly as a redshirt freshman last season and racked up 36 tackles but he was expected to play a larger role as a sophomore. Arizona runs a 3-3-5 which calls not only for playing a lot of safeties but necessitating a lot of production from those safeties. Losing a body who can play at that position always sucks but this is not expected to be a loss than cannot be overcome.

4. Lane Kiffin has joined the chorus of crusty idiots complaining about up tempo offenses:

@SIPeteThamel 

Kiffin: "If we're so concerned about player safety, are you right to allow systems that increase a game by 20 plays."

This whole movement to stop fast paced offenses has really been bothering me. First of all, a study has been done that shows that teams playing at a slower pace actually suffered more injuries last season than fast paced teams. Secondly, what's more dangerous to other players? having to run really fast 20 more times a game, or a 330 pound defensive tackle running at full strength trying to remove people's heads? If you're going to restrict the number of plays a team can run you also have to restrict the type of players that teams use. You can't just take away the identity of Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Wazzou, UCLA etc. and leave USC and Stanford alone. Thirdly, running up tempo forces players to stay in better shape and do more real fitness training rather than just being he-men and pumping iron all day. The better shape you are in, the less susceptible to injury you are, it's just a fact.Football is a violent game and the players understand the risks when they accept their scholarships. Injuries happen in football whether offenses are running fast, slow, or in between.

Now I'm sure Kiffin's concern are entirely about player safety and have nothing to do with surrendering 588 yards to Arizona and 730 to Oregon. But, clearly USC has struggled to stop up-tempo offenses based on the hideous results of the porous defense that USC has played under Kiffin. Well since USC is the easiest school to recruit to in the country and has more advantages than anyone else, maybe Kiffin should recruit smaller, faster, and nimbler players to match everyone's speed and then the other team running a lot of plays won't be such a big deal. Maybe instead of locking your players in the weight room and telling them to just do power cleans all day, take them on a five mile run every now and then and get some real fitness for them to supplement all that weight training. Just a thought Lane, take or leave it though even if you take it you're still going to get fired at the end of the season so what does it matter?

40 Players in 40 Days: Number 38

(photo cred: Jennifer Hilderbrand - US Presswire)

The third player on the Top 40 list comes from a third different school and a third different position as the list reveals our first All Pac-12 selection with Arizona State Safety Alden Darby. Before we get to Darby, here’s a quick recap of the list so far:

40. WR Chris Harper, Cal

39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC

As has been custom with the first two posts in this series, I will first prevent Darby’s stats from 2012:

80 tackles (53 solo), 5.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, 7 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble

Good not great stats although 80 tackles for a deep safety is pretty good especially for a team with such a good D-Line that doesn’t need safeties to make tackles too often. What makes Darby so special is his ability to read plays and react in and instant to make a big play. This play he made against USC this past season is friggin’ incredible and illustrates his ability to read plays and flash amazing athleticism.

I apologize for the terrible quality but it's the only clip of the play I can find and it is an absolute must watch to explain why Darby is a top 40 player. You can see ASU has four defensive backs lined up deep 11-12 yards or so off the line of scrimmage. Normally, a player that far away wouldn’t make a play five yards in the back field unless he was coming in to strip the ball from a ball carrier that was already wrapped up. However, a fraction before the snap, you can see Darby figure out USC is going to run a swing pass to the left he is in full stride as the ball is snapped, makes a beeline for the passing lane, covers 15 yards in about two and a half seconds, makes the interception and houses it.

This is a guy who does his homework, he read the formation with Marqise Lee lined up at running back, saw lee’s body language and quickly figured out what he was going to do and made a 15 yard break on the ball all at the same time. It is absolutely ridiculous how good this one play is from an individual standpoint. Forget about his numbers and overall body of work, I would have been okay with Darby as 2nd team All Pac-12 based on this play alone.

Of course, like any play, Darby has his warts. He’s another guy who is a little undersized (5-11, 188) and his run coverage is hit or miss. Here is a nice game tape of Darby against Arizona that I can use to show the good and bad with him.

At 0:14 ASU gives up a touchdown but Alden makes a perfect play that would have prevented a score against any other Running Back. I’m not sure if it was by design or not but Darby was unblocked on this play. Darby is the last line of defense, they only man who can keep Ka’Deem Carey out of the endzone. The temptation for a lot of players in this situation is to attack the ball player, come in hot and take the play to the ball carrier. Had Darby done this, Carey would have just run right around him and walked into the endzone just inside the pylon. Instead, Darby plants his feet on the goal line, doesn’t give Carey a chance to go left or right and makes him go through him.

Instead, Carey makes one of the most amazing plays I have ever seen and dives over Darby’s head and into the endzone. Darby makes a perfect play but Carey made a better one, it happens.

At 2:36 you can see how Darby has problems sometimes. Occasionally, Darby forgets that he is always in that right place and doing the right thing. He reads the play and starts running toward the line of scrimmage thinking he can make another huge play like he did against USC. Instead he runs himself right out of position, leaving no one in the hole to greet Carey and keep the play to a minimal gain but instead he gives up an open alley and allows 16 yards and it would have been a lot more if not for a shoe string tackle.

Alden Darby is a very good safety, one of the better DBs in the country, not just the conference. His size is a concern and his athleticism although adequate will not wow you which doesn’t make him much of an NFL prospect. Darby just quietly does his job very effectively and every now and then he makes an amazing play that leaves me drooling. He’s a solid player and someone you would take on your team any time but just not an elite player.