1. Oregon (Overall: 3-0, Conference: 0-0, Last Week: 2)
It looked early on like the Ducks would sleep walk to another victory but instead they opened up the throttle and put an epic beatdown on the Tennessee Volunteers. Oregon is now scoring an average of 61.3 points per game while allowing nine. The Ducks have not committed a turnover while forcing seven, have allowed only one sack, and are out-gaining their opponents by nearly six yards per play. They haven't necessarily faced any great teams but they haven't faced Nicholls State every week either. In the last two weeks, the Ducks have beaten an ACC and an SEC team by a combined 94 points.
2. UCLA (2-0, 0-0, LW: 4)
The Bruins looked like a middling team for the first 19 minutes of the game against Nebraska. Over the course of the final 41 minutes however, UCLA was a top 10 team. I think the Bruins true identity lies more so with the latter. UCLA is loaded on both lines, Shaq Evans has certainly developed into a number one receiver, Jordan James and Paul Perkins have replaced Jonathan Franklin, and Brett Hundley is still a superstar. UCLA showed incredible character coming back from 18 down on the road and if they keep playing like they did in the second half, even Oregon might not be able to stop them.
3. Washington (2-0, 0-0, LW: 1)
I was torn between between having Washington at second or third but I settled on third for one simple reason.The most important thing for a great team to do is keep their foot on the gas with a big lead. UCLA built its lead to two scores and kept pressing as they built their lead even further and shutout a top 30 offense in the second half. Washington took a 21 point lead and immediately gave up a 70+ touchdown and followed that with only one first down on its two ensuing offensive possessions. Don't get me wrong, the Huskies look great but they need to learn how to play with big leads.
4. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0, LW: 6)
The story coming out of the Wisconsin-ASU game was incompetent officiating but that buries the fact that ASU looked very good against a top team. Taylor Kelly became the first QB to throw for 300 yards against the Badgers defense since 2009 and Marion Grice has somehow managed to maintain his absurd touchdown rate of one score per 7.5 touches despite raising his touches per game from 11 to 22.5. ASU's defensive line is diminutive with no one taller than 6'2'' but that didn't hurt them against one of the nation's most physical offensive lines.
5. Stanford (2-0, 0-0, LW: 3)
I promised to do these rankings based solely on what happens on the field this season and Stanford certainly hasn't done much. But, if you watch this team play you can see their talent and ability and you can also tell they're being held back. Stanford has used an excessively conservative game plan in both of their games thus far and yet they have suffocated both of their opponents. The Cardinal will finally have their hands full on Saturday against Arizona State.
6. Arizona (3-0, 0-0, LW: 7)
While we're talking about teams leaving things in their back pocket, how about the Wildcats who have finally wrapped up one of the lightest non-conference schedules in the history of college football. Ka'Deem Carey is a special player and the 'Cats finally got some production from their receivers as Garic Wharton made a couple nice plays. B.J. Denker was once again unspectacular but he was efficient and kept the offense moving. Arizona's team speed on defense continues to look great and they are tackling in space better than I have seen in years. We'll have to wait and see if all that holds up as the season grows older.
7. Oregon State (2-1, 1-0, LW: 11)
Every year the Beavers lay an egg early in the season and we convince ourselves that Oregon State is a bad team. The moment we feel we have all the evidence to prove they aren't any good, Oregon State pulls a rabbit out of its hat and shocks a favored team on the road. The Beavers won an exhilarating overtime game against a Utah team that was coming in incredibly hot and now the coast might be clear for OSU to get into the conference title picture. Sean Mannion and Brandin Cooks are without a doubt the best QB-WR combo in the Pac-12 and you can make a case that they're the best in the nation. That being said, the defense was atrocious once again and looked like they had never seen a zone read before. That's bad news knowing that almost every team in the conference has the zone read in their play book and the Beavers don't have a scout team QB who can replicate it in practice.
8. Utah (2-1, 0-1, LW: 5)
Poor Utah, they commit some early turnovers and fall behind by 17 points, stage a rousing comeback to take the lead, cough that lead right back up again, tie the game almost as time expires, and then lose in overtime as a pass goes through a defenders hands and right to Brandin Cooks for a soul-crushing touchdown. That's just the way football is sometimes. Utah should be encouraged as they moved the ball both on the ground and through the air and finally found a feature tailback in the form of James Poole. The defensive line was supposed to be a strength of this team but their performance was concerning as they struggled to get pressure on Sean Mannion.
9. Colorado (2-0, 0-0, LW: 8)
Colorado had to take an unplanned week off after flooding in Boulder necessitated a postponement of its game against Fresno State. Colorado is taking this next week off as well although this time it is a planned opening in the schedule. I'm keeping the Buffs in this general area for the next little while until I get a chance to see them again.
10. Washington State (2-1, 1-0, LW: 10)
The Cougars did what they were supposed to do and blew out a bad team to build some momentum off their win over USC last week. Connor Halliday finally played efficiently as he threw only nine incompletions and just one unlucky interception. Halliday also demonstrated a good deep ball for the first time this season. If Halliday can complement the Cougars screens and quick passes with some longer throws, The Cougs might be able to use that and their stout defense to make a bowl game.
11. USC (2-1, 0-1, LW: 12)
Yes, USC finally started to look like the USC of old against Boston College but these rankings are based on an overall body of work. One decent afternoon against Boston College does not erase two weeks of rancid play before that. Furthermore, doesn't the fact that USC is being celebrated for blowing out a bad BC team go to show just how far they've fallen?
12. California (1-2, 0-0, LW: 9)
Where else am I supposed to put the only losing team in the Pac-12 besides last place? The Bears offense was exciting and productive once again but still way too mistake prone. Ohio State also exposed some weaknesses in the Bears' pass protection and the Cal defense might be the worst among all power conference teams.
The Award Tracker:
Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year:
1. QB Marcus Mariota, So., Oregon (LW: 2)
Mariota finally put together a great game as a passer as he shredded Tennessee for 456 yards and four touchdowns through the air. On the ground Mariota had his moments including a touchdown where he was dead to rights in the back field but he out ran a tackler to the corner. Even though he didn't break one for 50+ yards, his per carry average is still holding steady at an absurd 17.5.
2. QB Sean Mannion, Jr., Oregon State (LW: 3)
Mannion torched the Utah secondary all night to the tune of 443 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. He now has a 12 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio and is averaging 412 yards per game while completing nearly 77% of his throws on third down. Mannion has quickly established himself as the best pocket passer in the Pac-12 but once again his lack of contribution as a runner keeps him behind Mariota.
3. WR Brandin Cooks, Jr., Oregon State (LW: NR)
Cooks has emerged as Mannion's favorite target and with good reason. After an all-world performance against Utah (nine receptions, 210 yards, three touchdowns), Cooks leads the nation in receptions and touchdown catches with 29 and seven respectively. Cooks' 498 receiving yards ranks second in the nation and only five of his receptions have not gone for either a first down or a touchdown. I have Cooks behind Mannion because I think the Beavers would be worse of without their QB but that is no disparagement to Cooks who might be the most explosive receiver in college football.
Honorable Mentions:
WR Paul Richardson, Jr., Colorado
RB Bishop Sankey, Jr., Washington
QB Brett Hundley, So., UCLA
RB De'Anthony Thomas, Jr., Oregon
RB Marion Grice, Sr., Arizona State
Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year:
1. S Tra'Mayne Bondurant, Jr., Arizona (LW: 1)
Bondurant did not manage to return an interception for a touchdown this week but he did have a season high eight tackles and three pass break ups. Bondurant has made headlines by playing the ball as he leads the Pac-12 in passes defended and interceptions but if he starts tracking down ball carriers and affecting the run game like he did on Saturday, he might just stay atop these rankings all year.
2. LB Anthony Barr, Sr., UCLA (LW: NR)
In just two games Barr has recorded 3.5 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. Furthermore, Barr had all of those forced fumbles against Nebraska to go along with 11 tackles. That made him Pac-12 defensive player of the week and his performance could have been even better as he twice had Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez wrapped up in the backfield but couldn't bring him down. Martinez is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation but UCLA has some immobile QBs coming up on the schedule so Barr's sacks should climb.
3. DE Trevor Reilly, Sr., Utah (LW: NR)
One Utah pass rusher falls off and another steps up. Nate Orchard was the most impressive defensive lineman in the conference after week one but he has fallen off in the last two games. Enter Reilly, who had a big game against the Beavers with two tackles for loss, a sack, and a pass break up. Reilly now leads the conference with four tackles for loss and will be highly motivated to play well against his brother Trevor and BYU this Saturday.
Honorable Mentions:
S Dion Bailey, Jr., USC
LB Devon Kennard, Sr., USC
DT Arik Armstead, So., Oregon
S Deone Bucannon, Sr., Washington State
DE Josh Shirley, Jr., Washington
Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year:
1. QB Jared Goff, California (LW: 1)
Goff made a number of great throws once again although his passing yards per game actually dropped to 433.7. I don't want to put Goff in the race for overall player of the year because I think he's made way too many forced throws that have hurt his team and his numbers are inflated by the Bears' system. However, his impact on the Pac-12 season is far greater than any other freshman has had or will have.
2. RB Justin Davis, USC (LW: NR)
Davis was inexplicably frozen out of the game plan against Washington State but was given some steady work against Boston College and responded with 96 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. Davis is now averaging 6.6 yards per carry and with uncertainty at the QB position and Silas Redd still in poor health Davis might continue to put out big performances.
3. RB Paul Perkins, UCLA (LW: NR)
Perkins has yet to get a chance to put together a full performance but he did score the touchdown at the end of the first half that started the Bruins huge comeback against Nebraska. He also had a key 20 yard catch and run on a screen pass when he broke a couple tackles. Based on the reps he is getting, it seems Perkins hay have beaten out Malcolm Jones for the number two tailback role behind Jordan James.
Honorable Mentions:
RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon
RB Khalfani Muhammad, California
Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year:
1. LB Addison Gilliam, Colorado (LW: 1)
Gilliam was not afforded a stage to show off his abilities this weekend but the memories of what he has done are not old enough to make him fade form the top spot.
2. LB Myles Jack, UCLA (LW: 3)
Jack must have looked really impressive during UCLA's bye week practices because he was installed as a starter at outside linebacker against Nebraska. Jack rewarded Jim Mora's faith in him with a big performance as he tallied five solo tackles, one impressive tackle for a loss, and he even broke up a pass that would have gone for about 20 yards had he not made the play. Jack did not produce Gilliam type numbers but he looked very impressive on film. After re-watching the game, it seemed like Nebraska was showing him the ultimate show of respect by actively running plays away from him and toward All-American Anthony Barr at the other outside linebacker spot.
3. LB Scooby Wright, Arizona (LW: NR)
I keep trying to temper my excitement over Arizona's defense because they started well last year and got ripped in conference play and seem to be set up for that again following three games against sub par opponents. But regardless of who the Wildcats have played, Wright along with Bondurant has looked impressive. Wright has shown a great propensity for finding the ball and tackling in space as he has recorded 19 tackles including three for a loss this season. Wright has quickly become a starter and a key player for the Cats.
Honorable Mentions:
DB Daquawn Brown, Washington State
LB Torrodney Prevot, Oregon
DL, Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA
Pac-12 Coach of the Year:
1. Jim Mora, UCLA (LW: NR)
No coach had ever shown so much dignity as Mora with the way he handled himself in the wake of Nick Pasquale's death. The UCLA team showed a lot of heart and character these past two weeks especially after scoring 38 unanswered points in their big win over Nebraska. I love the faith Mora shows in his players as he did not shake up his lineup in the defensive secondary after they were shredded in the first half. I also think his willingness to play true freshmen like Jack, Vanderdoes, and Deon Hollins in an already loaded front seven shows tremendous faith in his roster. That faith surely inspires his players to play hard for him.
2. Mike MacIntyre, Colorado (LW: 1)
Like Gilliam, one unexpected week off isn't enough for MacIntyre's work turning the Buffs around to fade away. I don't know if Colorado will hold up very well in conference play but the fact that Coach Mac has already won half as many games in two weeks as Jon Embree won in two years is reason enough to keep him up here for awhile.
3. Mark Helfrich, Oregon (LW: NR)
Helfrich has not only created a seamless transition from Chip Kelly but in some ways he has improved on Kelly's culture. Oregon is now snapping the ball every 17 seconds, up from 20 a year ago and is taking more shots down field in the passing game. Marcus Mariota looks more like a QB and less like a playmaker in the pocket and I think Helfrich deserves a lot of credit for that. I also love that Helfrich maintains the tempo and keeps his foot on the gas pedal even after he puts his backups in.
Athletes in Space is named after ESPN/ABC's Kirk Herbstreit and his favorite saying that has spawned many drinking games. It is the most spectacularly mediocre Pac-12 Football and Men's Basketball blog on the internet and is filled with all the player analysis, game breakdowns, predictions, gambling advice, and news your pretty brain can handle. Owned and operated by Cam Stuerle, a lifelong Oregon fan, non-partisan writer, and an exiled college football lover living in Kelowna, BC, Canada.
Tuesday, 17 September 2013
Monday, 16 September 2013
The Pac-12 Week 3 Recap: Marcus Mariota is back to abnormal, Washington is baffling, and UCLA did it for Nick
You can't overstate how important last Saturday was to the Pac-12 and all the opportunities this conference had to make a major statement. You also can't overstate what a rousing success this past Saturday became. How does 8-1 with wins over the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC sound? How about the first 300 yard passer against Wisconsin in 46 games? The worst loss in 108 years for Tennessee? 600+ yards on the road against a Big Ten team? 38 unanswered points against a ranked Big Ten team? It all happened, and now the Pac-12 is without a doubt the second best conference in college football behind the SEC. Here is the important stuff that happened two days ago and what it all means going forward.
1. Marcus Mariota's arm has finally remembered that the off season is over. A sense of panic had been setting in with the Oregon fan base. "Yeah, we're blowing teams out but have you seen Marcus? His passing looks terrible!" Leave it to Oregon fans to find something to complain about after winning by seven touchdowns but to a certain extent they were right to fret. Mariota was completing only 53% of his throws through two games and although he had been victimized by some drops particularly against Virginia he was missing some open receivers. His mechanics looked fine, he was comfortable in the pocket, and he was not throwing under pressure yet he was missing a lot of throws. It wasn't a simple problem either like he was consistently throwing too high. He was missing high, low, to the right, and to the left.
After about half a quarter against Tennessee, Mariota wasn't looking any better. He was 2/7 passing on Oregon's first two series and twice he over shot an open man on 3rd down. People started to groan and worry continued to rise. Then Mariota went out and had a career day by throwing for 456 yards and became the first Oregon QB since Kellen Clemens in 2005 to surpass the 400 yard mark. I think Mariota's problems were all mental. My theory is that he started out like gangbusters last year including the most efficient passing debut for a freshman ever because he had been battling Bryan Bennett for playing time all summer. Practice and Fall Camp were so intense for Mariota last year that it put him in a better position to succeed once the season started. Not having that competition and extra push this year may have hurt him.
I also think he struggles to get comfortable right out of the chute. Even after his great performance against the Vols, Mariota is completing just 48.1% of his 1st quarter passes. Despite his supposedly rough outings against Nicholls and Virginia though, Mariota is completing 65.4% of his passes in the 2nd quarter and 65.5% in the 3rd. It's important to note that he still hasn't thrown an interception and his QBR (an advanced stat created by ESPN to track a QBs entire performance, including rushing numbers) is 97.4 out of 100. That is the second highest number ESPN has tracked through three games in the past 10 seasons trailing only Russell Wilson's senior season at Wisconsin. Mariota's 1st quarter efficiency will be corrected over the course of the year but, the real concern are his red zone numbers. Even with a pair of red zone scores to tight end John Mundt on Saturday, Mariota is sitting at 5/16 on pass attempts in the red zone. Those 11 incompletions include a drop by Byron Marshall that would have gone for a touchdown against Virgina but it also includes a pair of missed throws on 4th down against Nicholls and overthrowing a receiver on 3rd down during Oregon's second possession against Tennessee.
There is certainly hope for Mariota's red zone efficiency to come around just like his 1st quarter numbers. Last year, Mariota completed 64.3% of his red zone passes and threw 19 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. Long story short, not only will Mariota be fine he's already been fine. Oregon fans need to find something else to be worried about (like the interior offensive line) besides the most well rounded QB in college football.
2. Officiating is still a pandemic in the Pac-12, and it's not getting any better. By now, I'm sure you're well aware of what happened at the end of the Wisconsin-ASU game. I have certainly hashed out the events in painstaking detail. In the wake of Saturday night's events, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott has reprimanded the officials responsible for the fiasco and promised "additional sanctions" against those officials. What those sanctions are or will be if they haven't already been enforced is anyone's guess. I personally doubt it will be a suspension as there are six games in Pac-12 stadiums next week that will all require an official Pac-12 crew and I believe Utah's visit to independent BYU also calls for Pac-12 refs (since BYU is independent, its games are normally officiating by the conference of the visiting team). I'm sure Wisconsin fans and most college football fans would like to see those refs suspended but unfortunately they will probably be needed to work next Saturday.
The bottom line here is that officiating isn't getting any better. Then Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen promised a probe and sweeping changes following the 2006 Oklahoma-Oregon onside kick debacle, and Larry Scott brought in former NFL head of officials Mike Pereira to help out two years ago and yet the situation never improves. Oh and don't forget that the integrity of the Pac-12's men's basketball officiating was shattered six months ago. The thing is, Pac-12 commissioners past and current have tried bringing in new blood, hiring top professionals to run seminars, acquiring more respected heads of officials, raising officials salaries for motivation, and suspensions and fines in extreme cases like this one but none of it is working. Commissioner Scott has tried everything and I don't know what to say or how to fix this problem. It's all just sad really.
3. Washington's numbers don't make sense. What team has a difference of 43 between it's national ranking in total offense and scoring offense? That would be the Washington Huskies who have managed to average more yards per game than anyone other than Baylor, Oregon, and Texas A&M yet find themselves staring up at 46 teams when it comes to actually scoring. This discrepancy baffles me and I can't think of ever seeing one like it. Cal also has a similar dichotomy (9th in yards, 51st in scoring) but Cal's issues are easily explained through turnovers (two per game) and third down inefficiency (45.6% conversions).
Washington has only committed three turnovers all year and has the third best 3rd down conversion rate in the nation at 67.7%. But then I found Washington's problem: they need to get better in the red zone. The Huskies have had 10 red zone possessions this year and have six touchdowns. That 60% touchdown conversion rate puts them at 74th in the nation which is not good enough. Considering how good Washington is at tailback particularly with physical backs who can get tough yards along with a mobile and accurate passer and perhaps the best red zone receiving target in the country in Austin Seferian-Jenkins, there is no excuse for UW to be at anything less than 90%. Maybe near perfection is a little too much to ask but go look at their roster and the type of talent they have and tell me they shouldn't be punching in more touchdowns. UW needs to find a way to be more effective when close to their opponent's end zone and do it soon because teams like Stanford and Oregon will make them pay for kicking field goals.
4. Stanford is playing possum. If Stanford played Arizona tomorrow would anything actually happen? I joke of course but in addition to the Wildcats, Stanford has also decided to show about 40% of their hand to the rest of the conference. Stanford's game against San Jose State was fairly monotonous and I figured that would happen because I thought SJSU was good enough to push Stanford for a little while and keep the score respectable. As for Saturday against Army, I'm still not sure if that game actually happened or not.
I have a feeling David Shaw has some major offensive wrinkles hiding in the playbook that we're going to see fairly soon. All Stanford has run this year is basic dive and stretch run plays and some highly simplified pass concepts. That's all Stanford has needed so far but pretty soon, as in this weekend, Stanford will have to start emptying the playbook. There is only one top 25 match up in college football on Saturday and Stanford is in it as the Cardinal host Arizona State and it's vaunted defensive front. I've heard some rumblings of an expansion on the option pass concepts that Shaw tinkered with late last year after Kevin Hogan became the starting QB. It's going to be fascinating to see what Stanford does now that they start playing good teams that will require a maximum effort. I promise you this, the boring weeks of Stanford football are over until next year.
5. UCLA won one for Nick. The best moment of the weekend in college football was not Johnny Manziel having the best performance of all-time against Alabama's defense. It was not Alabama overcoming that effort to win one of the great shootouts in college football history. The one truly great moment of the weekend was not a plush suited renegade cowboy trying to capture a wild fox, an FCS team pulling a big upset on a Hail Mary, Michigan almost losing to Akron, or one of the most inexplicable endings to a football game ever witnessed. The true moment of the weekend was when Jim Mora in the wake of a come from behind 41-21 win at Nebraska, broke the fourth wall and looked straight into an ESPN camera and addressed the Pasquale family. Jim Mora genuinely seemed to forget that he was in the middle of an interview with Shannon Spake standing a foot away from him or that millions were watching and listening to him. For a brief few fleeting seconds, Mora was thousands of miles away from the Pasquales yet he was alone with them.
Mora held back his emotions as he said, "We won one for your son" and later, "We got one for Nick." Honestly, sometimes I hate writing and the limitations of this craft. I could have written two thousands words about what Nick Pasquale meant to his teammates and the emotions that the UCLA players fought through during the game and what poured out of them afterward. I hate clichés, but if "a picture says a thousand words" then here is a million:
May Nick Paquale rest in peace. May his memory stay forever with the UCLA players and all who were close with him. May he rest in heaven and watch down with pride and joy as his brothers play for him and go on to a special season in his honor.
1. Marcus Mariota's arm has finally remembered that the off season is over. A sense of panic had been setting in with the Oregon fan base. "Yeah, we're blowing teams out but have you seen Marcus? His passing looks terrible!" Leave it to Oregon fans to find something to complain about after winning by seven touchdowns but to a certain extent they were right to fret. Mariota was completing only 53% of his throws through two games and although he had been victimized by some drops particularly against Virginia he was missing some open receivers. His mechanics looked fine, he was comfortable in the pocket, and he was not throwing under pressure yet he was missing a lot of throws. It wasn't a simple problem either like he was consistently throwing too high. He was missing high, low, to the right, and to the left.
After about half a quarter against Tennessee, Mariota wasn't looking any better. He was 2/7 passing on Oregon's first two series and twice he over shot an open man on 3rd down. People started to groan and worry continued to rise. Then Mariota went out and had a career day by throwing for 456 yards and became the first Oregon QB since Kellen Clemens in 2005 to surpass the 400 yard mark. I think Mariota's problems were all mental. My theory is that he started out like gangbusters last year including the most efficient passing debut for a freshman ever because he had been battling Bryan Bennett for playing time all summer. Practice and Fall Camp were so intense for Mariota last year that it put him in a better position to succeed once the season started. Not having that competition and extra push this year may have hurt him.
I also think he struggles to get comfortable right out of the chute. Even after his great performance against the Vols, Mariota is completing just 48.1% of his 1st quarter passes. Despite his supposedly rough outings against Nicholls and Virginia though, Mariota is completing 65.4% of his passes in the 2nd quarter and 65.5% in the 3rd. It's important to note that he still hasn't thrown an interception and his QBR (an advanced stat created by ESPN to track a QBs entire performance, including rushing numbers) is 97.4 out of 100. That is the second highest number ESPN has tracked through three games in the past 10 seasons trailing only Russell Wilson's senior season at Wisconsin. Mariota's 1st quarter efficiency will be corrected over the course of the year but, the real concern are his red zone numbers. Even with a pair of red zone scores to tight end John Mundt on Saturday, Mariota is sitting at 5/16 on pass attempts in the red zone. Those 11 incompletions include a drop by Byron Marshall that would have gone for a touchdown against Virgina but it also includes a pair of missed throws on 4th down against Nicholls and overthrowing a receiver on 3rd down during Oregon's second possession against Tennessee.
There is certainly hope for Mariota's red zone efficiency to come around just like his 1st quarter numbers. Last year, Mariota completed 64.3% of his red zone passes and threw 19 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. Long story short, not only will Mariota be fine he's already been fine. Oregon fans need to find something else to be worried about (like the interior offensive line) besides the most well rounded QB in college football.
2. Officiating is still a pandemic in the Pac-12, and it's not getting any better. By now, I'm sure you're well aware of what happened at the end of the Wisconsin-ASU game. I have certainly hashed out the events in painstaking detail. In the wake of Saturday night's events, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott has reprimanded the officials responsible for the fiasco and promised "additional sanctions" against those officials. What those sanctions are or will be if they haven't already been enforced is anyone's guess. I personally doubt it will be a suspension as there are six games in Pac-12 stadiums next week that will all require an official Pac-12 crew and I believe Utah's visit to independent BYU also calls for Pac-12 refs (since BYU is independent, its games are normally officiating by the conference of the visiting team). I'm sure Wisconsin fans and most college football fans would like to see those refs suspended but unfortunately they will probably be needed to work next Saturday.
The bottom line here is that officiating isn't getting any better. Then Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen promised a probe and sweeping changes following the 2006 Oklahoma-Oregon onside kick debacle, and Larry Scott brought in former NFL head of officials Mike Pereira to help out two years ago and yet the situation never improves. Oh and don't forget that the integrity of the Pac-12's men's basketball officiating was shattered six months ago. The thing is, Pac-12 commissioners past and current have tried bringing in new blood, hiring top professionals to run seminars, acquiring more respected heads of officials, raising officials salaries for motivation, and suspensions and fines in extreme cases like this one but none of it is working. Commissioner Scott has tried everything and I don't know what to say or how to fix this problem. It's all just sad really.
3. Washington's numbers don't make sense. What team has a difference of 43 between it's national ranking in total offense and scoring offense? That would be the Washington Huskies who have managed to average more yards per game than anyone other than Baylor, Oregon, and Texas A&M yet find themselves staring up at 46 teams when it comes to actually scoring. This discrepancy baffles me and I can't think of ever seeing one like it. Cal also has a similar dichotomy (9th in yards, 51st in scoring) but Cal's issues are easily explained through turnovers (two per game) and third down inefficiency (45.6% conversions).
Washington has only committed three turnovers all year and has the third best 3rd down conversion rate in the nation at 67.7%. But then I found Washington's problem: they need to get better in the red zone. The Huskies have had 10 red zone possessions this year and have six touchdowns. That 60% touchdown conversion rate puts them at 74th in the nation which is not good enough. Considering how good Washington is at tailback particularly with physical backs who can get tough yards along with a mobile and accurate passer and perhaps the best red zone receiving target in the country in Austin Seferian-Jenkins, there is no excuse for UW to be at anything less than 90%. Maybe near perfection is a little too much to ask but go look at their roster and the type of talent they have and tell me they shouldn't be punching in more touchdowns. UW needs to find a way to be more effective when close to their opponent's end zone and do it soon because teams like Stanford and Oregon will make them pay for kicking field goals.
4. Stanford is playing possum. If Stanford played Arizona tomorrow would anything actually happen? I joke of course but in addition to the Wildcats, Stanford has also decided to show about 40% of their hand to the rest of the conference. Stanford's game against San Jose State was fairly monotonous and I figured that would happen because I thought SJSU was good enough to push Stanford for a little while and keep the score respectable. As for Saturday against Army, I'm still not sure if that game actually happened or not.
I have a feeling David Shaw has some major offensive wrinkles hiding in the playbook that we're going to see fairly soon. All Stanford has run this year is basic dive and stretch run plays and some highly simplified pass concepts. That's all Stanford has needed so far but pretty soon, as in this weekend, Stanford will have to start emptying the playbook. There is only one top 25 match up in college football on Saturday and Stanford is in it as the Cardinal host Arizona State and it's vaunted defensive front. I've heard some rumblings of an expansion on the option pass concepts that Shaw tinkered with late last year after Kevin Hogan became the starting QB. It's going to be fascinating to see what Stanford does now that they start playing good teams that will require a maximum effort. I promise you this, the boring weeks of Stanford football are over until next year.
5. UCLA won one for Nick. The best moment of the weekend in college football was not Johnny Manziel having the best performance of all-time against Alabama's defense. It was not Alabama overcoming that effort to win one of the great shootouts in college football history. The one truly great moment of the weekend was not a plush suited renegade cowboy trying to capture a wild fox, an FCS team pulling a big upset on a Hail Mary, Michigan almost losing to Akron, or one of the most inexplicable endings to a football game ever witnessed. The true moment of the weekend was when Jim Mora in the wake of a come from behind 41-21 win at Nebraska, broke the fourth wall and looked straight into an ESPN camera and addressed the Pasquale family. Jim Mora genuinely seemed to forget that he was in the middle of an interview with Shannon Spake standing a foot away from him or that millions were watching and listening to him. For a brief few fleeting seconds, Mora was thousands of miles away from the Pasquales yet he was alone with them.
Mora held back his emotions as he said, "We won one for your son" and later, "We got one for Nick." Honestly, sometimes I hate writing and the limitations of this craft. I could have written two thousands words about what Nick Pasquale meant to his teammates and the emotions that the UCLA players fought through during the game and what poured out of them afterward. I hate clichés, but if "a picture says a thousand words" then here is a million:
May Nick Paquale rest in peace. May his memory stay forever with the UCLA players and all who were close with him. May he rest in heaven and watch down with pride and joy as his brothers play for him and go on to a special season in his honor.
Sunday, 15 September 2013
The Roundup: Week 3 (Part Two)
Washington State 48, Southern Utah 10. We wanted to see Connor Halliday take care of the ball and keep Wazzou moving on offense and yesterday we finally saw it. Halliday did throw an interception early in the second quarter but you can live with that when he gives you 32/41 for 383 yards and five touchdowns. There wasn't much to see here as Wazzou just wanted to get its offense on track and avoid injuries against a bad team. Wazzou did what it needed to do and blew out a bad team to move to 2-1. Wazzou will have another chance to stay on track and build more momentum next week against lowly Idaho.
Ohio State 52, California 34. Okay so here's the scouting report on Cal through three games: offense = really good although mistake prone, defense = god awful. Ohio State's scored on each of it's first three possessions as the first two ended in touchdown passes of 90 and 47 yards. Cal gave up at least 40 yards on five of OSU's first six possessions and the only one that didn't go for at least 40 was a short 23 yard touchdown drive following a fumble.
The first quarter of this game was insane featuring a combined 38 points, three turnovers, and 470 yards. Cal was able to hang around for awhile as I thought they would with some big pass plays but they also made some critical errors that did not allow them to keep pace with the Buckeyes. Cal's short passing game was effective but when Jared Goff couldn't throw a screen or get a pass of right as his back foot hit, the Cal O-line struggled to protect and allow for longer routes to develop. Goff also showed his inexperience once again as Cal forced a fumble down 21-7 and gave the Bears a chance to get back in the game. Sonny Dykes decided to take a shot right away with a flea flicker but it didn't fool the defense. Goff predetermined that he would throw deep to Chris Harper but he ended up heaving into double coverage (and over threw Harper for his trouble) and was intercepted. OSU quickly turned that into a field goal to make it a three possession game and Cal never really threatened after that.
Cal needs to do something to shore up its defense. They won't be pitching shutouts and controlling games any time soon but they need to be able to do something. Whether it's rushing the passer, playing good coverage, tackling in space, filling gaps, or something else, this Cal defense needs to develop one good trait that they can lean on to get an occasional stop. Right now, these guys have absolutely no identity and not one thing they do well to fall back on. Cal is now 116th in the nation in scoring defense and 120th in yards allowed. They have a week off to do something to work on their defense and they better make the most of it because a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon awaits on the other side of their bye week.
Oregon State 51, Utah 48 (OT). What a freaking game this was and what a freaking joke the Canadian government is. Thanks to the CRTC's feeble and senseless goals to "protect Canadian media," Fox Sports 1 isn't available in Canada (in addition to all the ESPN networks) and my usually consistent Ukrainian pirate streaming websites didn't have a stream for this game so I ended up missing what might be the best game in the Pac-12 all season. This was billed as two of the nation's most underrated passers in Kevin Wilson of Utah and Sean Mannion of OSU going throw for throw in a shootout and they lived up to the hype and then some. Wilson showcased the good and bad that you get from him as he was inefficient throughout the night and threw three interceptions.Wilson also showed what makes him so great as he put together 421 total yards (279 passing and 142 rushing) and five total touchdowns. The last of Wilson's three rushing touchdowns was a nine yarder that capped an incredible seven play, 75 yard drive that tied the game with 21 seconds left to force overtime.
Wilson was great if not sloppy at times but Beavers QB Sean Mannion was simply untouchable. Mannion threw for 443 yards and five touchdowns and did not commit a turnover. Mannion was certainly helped by wide receiver Bradin Cooks who has not only replaced Markus Wheaton in the Beavers offense, he's actually become better than he ever was. Cooks finished with nine catches for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Cooks scored an amazing touchdown in the 3rd quarter when he took a tunnel screen and outran at least six defenders while crossing the field and then threw a tackler off his shoulders while tip-toeing down the sideline for a 55 yard touchdown. Cooks also made a nice back shoulder catch with 2:29 to give the Beavers a late lead shortly before Wilson's game tying drive. Once in overtime, Cooks put the final stamp on the game as he ran a great square-in route and showed tremendous concentration as he caught a pass off a deflection to score the game winning touchdown. I casually said after last week that as good as Mannion and Cooks had played they'd need to be better to make up for OSU's atrocious defense. For at least one night, Mannion and Cooks did exactly that and earned a big win.
Also a quick side note, I didn't see the play so I'm not going to speculate about what happened but Oregon State running back Storm Woods took a nasty hit and was motionless on the ground for awhile and had to be removed by an ambulance. He flashed a thumbs up while he was stretchered off and Woods is currently resting in a Salt Lake City hospital and does have feeling and movement in all his extremities. Here's to hoping Woods will be okay.
Arizona 38, UTSA 13. All it took was the graduation of one QB and suddenly Arizona has gone from arguably the most most exciting team in the Pac-12 to maybe the most boring. I didn't watch this game and from what I gather I hope you didn't either. The Wildcats trailed for the first time this season when UTSA kicked a field goal on its first drive but Arizona responded with a passing touchdown (!) and it was pretty much smooth sailing from there. I will say that this was B.J. Denker's best game as Arizona's QB by far. He finished 14/21 for 158 yards and that one touchdown. Denker also showed his best trait again by using his legs to rush for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
Ka'Deem Carey looked great at tailback again with 128 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Arizona never really pulled away per say but they controlled the game from start finish with its running game, timely passes, and strong defense. Yes, you read that last sentence correctly and yes this is a Rich Rodriguez coached team. Arizona has played fine and been uninspiring and that was all they needed against a terrible set of non-conference foes. Next up, Arizona finally picks on someone their own size after a bye week when they face Washington in Seattle.
Arizona State 32, Wisconsin 30. Arizona State rode a career high four touchdowns from Marion Grice and an all back shoulder throw offense to the biggest win of the Todd Graham era. Jaelen Strong had a break out game with six catches for 104 yards and offensive coordinator Mike Norvell showed off D.J. Foster in his new hybrid role. Somehow I missed this during the off season but ASU has converted Foster into a hybrid wide receiver with 2012 Marion Grice as his model. ASU involved Foster in both the pass and run game and he looked pretty good. QB Taylor Kelly struggled somewhat especially under pressure and the ASU receivers outside of Strong really struggled with drops especially Richard Smith who dropped three passes in a span of two series in the second quarter and was benched for an extended period of time.
Defensively, ASU was solid. They did reasonably well against the Wisconsin run game and held James White to 45 yards on 12 carries. Melvin Gordon was a different story as he broke a number of tacklers and early in the 3rd quarter, ASU had some bad run fits and lost backside containment which allowed Gordon to bust one for an 80 yard touchdown. ASU did really well against the pass though as the Sun Devils had pressure in Wisconsin QB Joel Stave's face all night and held him to 50% completions.
But enough about all that, you probably want to figure out exactly what the hell happened at the end of that game. I tried to explain what happened in words to my dad last night but mere words didn't go very far. Luckily, YouTube exists to take care of that problem.
Okay, let's try to tackle this step by step.
1. Wisconsin is trailing by two and looking to set up a field goal attempt for the win but they are out of timeouts and cannot stop the clock. the Badgers are set up on the right hash mark and want to line up the field goal attempt down the middle to make it easier for their kicker.
2. Stave takes the snap and steps over to his left and takes a knee, his plan is to quickly get the Badgers lined up again and spike the ball with a few seconds left.
3. Stave takes the knee but as you can see, he bumps into one of his linemen and as a result, his knee quickly taps the ground and because of that, the ASU defense doesn't see his knee hit the ground and does not know that he gave himself up.
4. Stave places the ball on the ground and walks away from it but the ASU defense thinks it might be a fumble so they smartly pounce on the ball hoping to gain possession. The head ref quickly and correctly rules that Stave gave himself up and that the ball is dead and there is no fumble. This creates mass confusion and is why you should always toss the ball to an official after every play rather than putting it on the ground. If Stave tosses the ball three feet in front of him to the umpire, none of this would have happened.
5. ASU's Anthony Jones believes he has recovered a fumble and is lying on it waiting for an official to give a ruling as all defenders do when they fall on a loose ball. There should not be a delay of game penalty as Jones has every right to jump on that ball but the Umpire erred when he did not stop the clock to uncover the pile and re-spot the ball.
6. Wisconsin, particularly Stave, made a huge mistake arguing with the head official trying to verify that he did not fumble and also lobby for a delay of game penalty. The officials finally get Jones off the ball and spot it but by then Wisconsin can't get lined up in time for the spike and the clock runs out. For the record, there is a new rule in place that does not allow teams to spike the ball with less than three seconds left. Ironically, the rule was largely put in place to avoid a repeat of what happened to Wisconsin in the 2012 Rose Bowl. As a result, even if the Badgers had gotten the snap off it wouldn't have mattered.
7. In the wake of this, a lot of people have said that Stave never put his knee down and technically he did fumble. That theory has been disspelled by this photo:
8. The fault for this is definitely on the officials who should have done a better job of getting Jones off the ball and spotting it with enough time for Wisconsin to run the spike. That being said, I have a big issue with Wisconsin's strategy. I get that you want to kick it with no time left but with no timeouts you have to play it conservatively just in case something like this happens. If they kick the ball on that 1st down play, it would take about five seconds to run the field goal so after a squib kickoff, ASU would have had the ball somewhere between their own 25-40 yard line with about 13 seconds left (less if they had chosen to try to return the kickoff). With one timeout and a predictable passing game, what are the chances ASU would have been able to respond and get their own winning field goal?
9. This is another unfortunate example of Pac-12 officials displaying horrifying ineptitude and costing a team a game. Worse yet, they once again cost a visiting team from another major conference a win against a Pac-12 team on the road leading to talk of "conspiracies" (Oklahoma fans still won't let go of the 2006 Oregon game, nor should they). Here's the thing, a conspiracy has to be well planned and it has to require a certain level of intelligence form those perpetrating the conspiracy. If you watch any Pac-12 football at all, you know the refs in this conference are not intelligent enough to pull off such a thing.
10. Finally, it needs to be said that the #CollegeKickers meme exists for a reason. This isn't the NFL where the kickers are automatic and poor kicking has been an epidemic in CFB for some time now. It is entirely possibly that Wisconsin could have missed the kick or had a bad snap or bad hold or even had a blocking breakdown that allowed for ASU to block the kick. Even if the officials had done their jobs correctly, it's no guarantee that Wisconsin would have won.
Ohio State 52, California 34. Okay so here's the scouting report on Cal through three games: offense = really good although mistake prone, defense = god awful. Ohio State's scored on each of it's first three possessions as the first two ended in touchdown passes of 90 and 47 yards. Cal gave up at least 40 yards on five of OSU's first six possessions and the only one that didn't go for at least 40 was a short 23 yard touchdown drive following a fumble.
The first quarter of this game was insane featuring a combined 38 points, three turnovers, and 470 yards. Cal was able to hang around for awhile as I thought they would with some big pass plays but they also made some critical errors that did not allow them to keep pace with the Buckeyes. Cal's short passing game was effective but when Jared Goff couldn't throw a screen or get a pass of right as his back foot hit, the Cal O-line struggled to protect and allow for longer routes to develop. Goff also showed his inexperience once again as Cal forced a fumble down 21-7 and gave the Bears a chance to get back in the game. Sonny Dykes decided to take a shot right away with a flea flicker but it didn't fool the defense. Goff predetermined that he would throw deep to Chris Harper but he ended up heaving into double coverage (and over threw Harper for his trouble) and was intercepted. OSU quickly turned that into a field goal to make it a three possession game and Cal never really threatened after that.
Cal needs to do something to shore up its defense. They won't be pitching shutouts and controlling games any time soon but they need to be able to do something. Whether it's rushing the passer, playing good coverage, tackling in space, filling gaps, or something else, this Cal defense needs to develop one good trait that they can lean on to get an occasional stop. Right now, these guys have absolutely no identity and not one thing they do well to fall back on. Cal is now 116th in the nation in scoring defense and 120th in yards allowed. They have a week off to do something to work on their defense and they better make the most of it because a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon awaits on the other side of their bye week.
Oregon State 51, Utah 48 (OT). What a freaking game this was and what a freaking joke the Canadian government is. Thanks to the CRTC's feeble and senseless goals to "protect Canadian media," Fox Sports 1 isn't available in Canada (in addition to all the ESPN networks) and my usually consistent Ukrainian pirate streaming websites didn't have a stream for this game so I ended up missing what might be the best game in the Pac-12 all season. This was billed as two of the nation's most underrated passers in Kevin Wilson of Utah and Sean Mannion of OSU going throw for throw in a shootout and they lived up to the hype and then some. Wilson showcased the good and bad that you get from him as he was inefficient throughout the night and threw three interceptions.Wilson also showed what makes him so great as he put together 421 total yards (279 passing and 142 rushing) and five total touchdowns. The last of Wilson's three rushing touchdowns was a nine yarder that capped an incredible seven play, 75 yard drive that tied the game with 21 seconds left to force overtime.
Wilson was great if not sloppy at times but Beavers QB Sean Mannion was simply untouchable. Mannion threw for 443 yards and five touchdowns and did not commit a turnover. Mannion was certainly helped by wide receiver Bradin Cooks who has not only replaced Markus Wheaton in the Beavers offense, he's actually become better than he ever was. Cooks finished with nine catches for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Cooks scored an amazing touchdown in the 3rd quarter when he took a tunnel screen and outran at least six defenders while crossing the field and then threw a tackler off his shoulders while tip-toeing down the sideline for a 55 yard touchdown. Cooks also made a nice back shoulder catch with 2:29 to give the Beavers a late lead shortly before Wilson's game tying drive. Once in overtime, Cooks put the final stamp on the game as he ran a great square-in route and showed tremendous concentration as he caught a pass off a deflection to score the game winning touchdown. I casually said after last week that as good as Mannion and Cooks had played they'd need to be better to make up for OSU's atrocious defense. For at least one night, Mannion and Cooks did exactly that and earned a big win.
Also a quick side note, I didn't see the play so I'm not going to speculate about what happened but Oregon State running back Storm Woods took a nasty hit and was motionless on the ground for awhile and had to be removed by an ambulance. He flashed a thumbs up while he was stretchered off and Woods is currently resting in a Salt Lake City hospital and does have feeling and movement in all his extremities. Here's to hoping Woods will be okay.
Arizona 38, UTSA 13. All it took was the graduation of one QB and suddenly Arizona has gone from arguably the most most exciting team in the Pac-12 to maybe the most boring. I didn't watch this game and from what I gather I hope you didn't either. The Wildcats trailed for the first time this season when UTSA kicked a field goal on its first drive but Arizona responded with a passing touchdown (!) and it was pretty much smooth sailing from there. I will say that this was B.J. Denker's best game as Arizona's QB by far. He finished 14/21 for 158 yards and that one touchdown. Denker also showed his best trait again by using his legs to rush for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
Ka'Deem Carey looked great at tailback again with 128 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Arizona never really pulled away per say but they controlled the game from start finish with its running game, timely passes, and strong defense. Yes, you read that last sentence correctly and yes this is a Rich Rodriguez coached team. Arizona has played fine and been uninspiring and that was all they needed against a terrible set of non-conference foes. Next up, Arizona finally picks on someone their own size after a bye week when they face Washington in Seattle.
Arizona State 32, Wisconsin 30. Arizona State rode a career high four touchdowns from Marion Grice and an all back shoulder throw offense to the biggest win of the Todd Graham era. Jaelen Strong had a break out game with six catches for 104 yards and offensive coordinator Mike Norvell showed off D.J. Foster in his new hybrid role. Somehow I missed this during the off season but ASU has converted Foster into a hybrid wide receiver with 2012 Marion Grice as his model. ASU involved Foster in both the pass and run game and he looked pretty good. QB Taylor Kelly struggled somewhat especially under pressure and the ASU receivers outside of Strong really struggled with drops especially Richard Smith who dropped three passes in a span of two series in the second quarter and was benched for an extended period of time.
Defensively, ASU was solid. They did reasonably well against the Wisconsin run game and held James White to 45 yards on 12 carries. Melvin Gordon was a different story as he broke a number of tacklers and early in the 3rd quarter, ASU had some bad run fits and lost backside containment which allowed Gordon to bust one for an 80 yard touchdown. ASU did really well against the pass though as the Sun Devils had pressure in Wisconsin QB Joel Stave's face all night and held him to 50% completions.
But enough about all that, you probably want to figure out exactly what the hell happened at the end of that game. I tried to explain what happened in words to my dad last night but mere words didn't go very far. Luckily, YouTube exists to take care of that problem.
Okay, let's try to tackle this step by step.
1. Wisconsin is trailing by two and looking to set up a field goal attempt for the win but they are out of timeouts and cannot stop the clock. the Badgers are set up on the right hash mark and want to line up the field goal attempt down the middle to make it easier for their kicker.
2. Stave takes the snap and steps over to his left and takes a knee, his plan is to quickly get the Badgers lined up again and spike the ball with a few seconds left.
3. Stave takes the knee but as you can see, he bumps into one of his linemen and as a result, his knee quickly taps the ground and because of that, the ASU defense doesn't see his knee hit the ground and does not know that he gave himself up.
4. Stave places the ball on the ground and walks away from it but the ASU defense thinks it might be a fumble so they smartly pounce on the ball hoping to gain possession. The head ref quickly and correctly rules that Stave gave himself up and that the ball is dead and there is no fumble. This creates mass confusion and is why you should always toss the ball to an official after every play rather than putting it on the ground. If Stave tosses the ball three feet in front of him to the umpire, none of this would have happened.
5. ASU's Anthony Jones believes he has recovered a fumble and is lying on it waiting for an official to give a ruling as all defenders do when they fall on a loose ball. There should not be a delay of game penalty as Jones has every right to jump on that ball but the Umpire erred when he did not stop the clock to uncover the pile and re-spot the ball.
6. Wisconsin, particularly Stave, made a huge mistake arguing with the head official trying to verify that he did not fumble and also lobby for a delay of game penalty. The officials finally get Jones off the ball and spot it but by then Wisconsin can't get lined up in time for the spike and the clock runs out. For the record, there is a new rule in place that does not allow teams to spike the ball with less than three seconds left. Ironically, the rule was largely put in place to avoid a repeat of what happened to Wisconsin in the 2012 Rose Bowl. As a result, even if the Badgers had gotten the snap off it wouldn't have mattered.
7. In the wake of this, a lot of people have said that Stave never put his knee down and technically he did fumble. That theory has been disspelled by this photo:
8. The fault for this is definitely on the officials who should have done a better job of getting Jones off the ball and spotting it with enough time for Wisconsin to run the spike. That being said, I have a big issue with Wisconsin's strategy. I get that you want to kick it with no time left but with no timeouts you have to play it conservatively just in case something like this happens. If they kick the ball on that 1st down play, it would take about five seconds to run the field goal so after a squib kickoff, ASU would have had the ball somewhere between their own 25-40 yard line with about 13 seconds left (less if they had chosen to try to return the kickoff). With one timeout and a predictable passing game, what are the chances ASU would have been able to respond and get their own winning field goal?
9. This is another unfortunate example of Pac-12 officials displaying horrifying ineptitude and costing a team a game. Worse yet, they once again cost a visiting team from another major conference a win against a Pac-12 team on the road leading to talk of "conspiracies" (Oklahoma fans still won't let go of the 2006 Oregon game, nor should they). Here's the thing, a conspiracy has to be well planned and it has to require a certain level of intelligence form those perpetrating the conspiracy. If you watch any Pac-12 football at all, you know the refs in this conference are not intelligent enough to pull off such a thing.
10. Finally, it needs to be said that the #CollegeKickers meme exists for a reason. This isn't the NFL where the kickers are automatic and poor kicking has been an epidemic in CFB for some time now. It is entirely possibly that Wisconsin could have missed the kick or had a bad snap or bad hold or even had a blocking breakdown that allowed for ASU to block the kick. Even if the officials had done their jobs correctly, it's no guarantee that Wisconsin would have won.
The Roundup: Week 3 (Part One)
UCLA 41, Nebraska 21. With the searing pain of losing a loved one on their minds, the Bruins wanted to go out against Nebraska and honor their fallen teammate Nick Pasquale with their performance. but after the first 28 minutes of the game they weren't doing him very proud. Brett Hundley was off on his throws, especially on one particular play when Shaq Evans adjusted a hitch route and burned a Nebraska corner for what would have been about a 30-40 yard gain but Hundley threw the original hitch route right to the corner for an interception. In the trenches, the Bruins struggled to create space for their running backs to operate while their vaunted front seven was pushed around by the Nebraska offensive line.
The biggest question mark coming into the game was the UCLA defensive backs and how they would hold up. It didn't take long for that question to be answered and the unfortunate answer was that they were not very good. No one in the UCLA secondary could cover Quincy Enuwa or Kenny Bell as Nebraska started ripping the Bruins secondary early and often. Nebraska's first touchdown drive ended with two UCLA DBs running with a slot receiver on a seem route leaving Enuwa completely uncovered on a slant route for an 11 yard touchdown. UCLA responded with a field goal but Nebraska came back onto the field and put together another efficient drive that ended with Enuwa beating UCLA corner Fabian Moreau off the line and then won a jump ball in the endzone. Later in the second quarter with the score still 14-3, UCLA had another disastrous miscue as UCLA punter Sean Covington dropped a snap and handed Nebraska the ball at the UCLA 26. Two plays later the ball was in the end zone again as Moreau got beat on a corner route by Bell to make the score 21-3. UCLA took the ball following the Bell touchdown and desperately needed a score to stay in the game but after a missed field goal it sure looked like UCLA was cooked.
However, the Bruins defense final stiffened and forced a three and out and then took the ball and scored a touchdown to get back in the game. The drive was highlighted by QB Brett Hundley making a special play that few can make. He shook off a pair of tackles in the backfield and scrambled 13 yards for the first down. On the next play, Hundley hit Devin Fuller on a well designed crossing route as Fuller came across the field and the Nebraska corner got caught in traffic trying to run with Fuller. Fuller's 32 yard catch and run put UCLA on the door step and two plays later, Paul Perkins got the ball on a draw play and found a seam for the score. Little did we know that finally getting a stop and a scoring drive would spark UCLA to one heck of a comeback. UCLA made some adjustments at halftime and completely dominated Nebraska in the second half. After being pushed around for most of the game, UCLA's front seven took over the game and allowed only four first downs the rest of the way. UCLA scored touchdowns on all four of its 3rd quarter possessions and suddenly this game became a blowout in the other direction as the Bruins went on to win 41-21.
UCLA should be proud of their performance and know that they won one for Nick and did it in the best way possible by fighting and showing resilience in the face of almost insurmountable odds. I will say this though, the secondary is still a significant concern despite the great second half defensive performance. Most if not all of Nebraska's second half incompletions and poor throws were forced by pressure in the backfield. I never got a great look at whether Nebraska had open receivers in the 2nd half but UCLA's pressure made sure Martinez didn't have time to find them. UCLA's corners played very poorly to start the game and did not get much of a chance to atone in the second half so they are still a concern going forward.
Stanford 34, Army 20. There was another Pac-12 team in action early yesterday but that game wasn't nearly as noteworthy. The Cardinal started incredibly sloppy as Kevin Hogan fumbled on the opening possession to set up a short field goal and then a quick three and out set up another field goal to put Stanford behind 6-0 early and spark UPSET ALERT on every internet media source. But then Stanford settled down and found a groove with a six play, 75 yard drive to take the lead and put Stanford in control. The Cardinal went on to score 17 unanswered and it looked like Stanford had full control but Stanford's defense committed an uncharacteristic mistake by giving Army's Terry Baggett the edge uncontested for a 46 yard run to set up a touchdown to make it 17-13 just before the half. Army had the ball to start the 3rd with a chance to retake control but Stanford's defense rose to the occasion by forcing a punt and after Stanford's offense couldn't get untracked, the Cardinal pounced on a fumble. That turnover got the offense going as Tyler Gaffney broke a screen pass for a 23 yard touchdown on a 2nd and 16 to make it 24-13 and effectively put the game away.
This was a very sloppy and below standard performance for the Cardinal. You can attribute a lot of this performance to the long road trip as jet lag and 9:00 AM often don't go together very well. That being said, Stanford has started to develop a nasty habit of playing down to the level of their competition. Just think of last year's games against San Jose State, USC, Washington, Arizona, and Washington State and now this. That's six teams ranging from middling to poor with no business hanging with a top 10 team like Stanford yet the Cardinal had trouble putting all of them away. They inexplicably lost to Washington and trailed by 10 to Arizona with under three minutes to go last year. You always hear that good teams need to beat up on the bad teams when they get a chance. Well, Stanford needs to start acting like a good team before it bites them in the butt again like it did last year.
USC 35, Boston College 7. Well, well, well, maybe USC has an offense after all. The Trojans have been rancid offensively before yesterday but maybe all it took was for Lane Kiffin to make up his mind on a QB. Truth be told, both Cody Kessler and Max Wittek saw the field just like the previous two games but yesterday it was for entirely different reasons. Kessler got the start and was never replaced while the game was in doubt and he finally looked like a competent passer. Kessler completed 15 of 17 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Most of Kessler's passes were set up by play action thanks to a stellar effort from tailbacks Tre Madden and Justin Davis. Madden and Davis combined for 198 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
Boston College isn't a good team but neither are Hawaii or Washington State so it was good to see USC finally dominate a bad team like they're supposed to. What we need to see now is whether Kessler can remain effective and mistake free when he isn't buoyed by a run game. Eventually, USC will run into a strong defense that can stop Madden and Davis and take away the effectiveness of Kessler's play action while forcing Kessler into obvious pass situations on 2nd and 3rd and long. Can Kessler still find receivers when the defense knows he's going to throw? Better yet, can he throw in the face of pressure? The answer was no against Hawaii and Wazzou but Boston College wasn't able to get anyone in the backfield yesterday. The Trojans will face much better pass rushers in the weeks to come so it'll be interesting to see if Kessler's new found confidence still applies when 300 pound monsters are breathing in his face but those answers can wait. For now USC looks a lot better than it did a week ago and Lane Kiffin can relax in his office for at least one more week.
Oregon 59, Tennessee 14. Remember when Marcus Mariota was struggling as a passer and everyone was worried that he was regressing and becoming a running back with a live arm? That was fun. Mariota started slow again as he completed just two of his first seven pass attempts which included overthrowing a wide open receiver on third down to end each of the Ducks first two possessions. But, Mariota suddenly flipped a switch and completed 21 of his next 26 throws (that included two throwaways under pressure by the way) and finished with a career high 456 yards (first 400 yard passing game for an Oregon QB since 2005) and four touchdown plus another score on the ground. The Ducks were sloppy all over the field early as the Ducks started with consecutive three and outs, the second of which came after a fumble set Oregon up at the Tennessee 29 and resulted in a missed field goal (some things never change).
The Ducks defense had a major breakdown on Tennessee's ensuing possession as a miscommunication left Vols wideout Josh Smith open by at least 30 yards as he notched a 51 yard catch and run. The play set up a touchdown and then Oregon proceeded to have a touchdown of their own wiped out by an offensive pass interference call that forced a field goal attempt. Suddenly Oregon was down 7-3 and Tennessee was building confidence. Then Oregon stopped playing around and began ripping the Vols to pieces on offense and defense. Oregon completely out manned Tennessee's vaunted offensive line as the Ducks used only four or five men in the box on every play and Tennessee still couldn't run on them. The Ducks chose to drop seven to eight men into coverage on every play and the Vols couldn't get anyone open. The Oregon offense finally kicked into high gear on its third possession as a long Bralon Addison punt return set up a touchdown pass to freshman tight end John Mundt who started in place of Colt Lyerla reportedly because of an illness. That quick scoring drive started a run of eight consecutive touchdown drives, seven of which happened in under two minutes.
Now that Mariota has hit his stride, Oregon might actually be unstoppable. I'm not going to lie, the Ducks looked amazing yesterday and I don't see many flaws that better teams can exploit.
Washington 34, Illinois 24. Washington looked very impressive again as the Huskies out gained Illinois 615-327. Keith Price has regained his 2011 form and then some as he finished 28/35 for 342 and two touchdowns while Bishop Sankey complemented him on the ground with 208 rushing yards. You might ask, "How did they win by only 10 when they looked so utterly dominant?" The answer is a bunch of really dumb mistakes. The Huskies lost a pair of fumbles that cost them productive drives in the 1st half that resulted in the halftime lead being only 10-3. The Huskies were also incredibly undisciplined as UW committed 12 penalties for 104 yards. Many of those flags allowed Illinois to extend drives and keep the Huskies offense on the sideline.
I'll confess that I don't get Big Ten Network and couldn't find an online stream for this game until late in the third quarter so I don't have too much analysis of how UW played. I was a little perturbed by how Washington's defense played after the Huskies went up 31-10 in the 4th. On the first play from scrimmage following a Jaydon Mickens touchdown catch to make it 31-10, UW corner Gregory Ducre made a horrible mistake by allowing Illinois receiver Ryan Lankford to get a free inside release with no safety help coming over the top. That is the ultimate no-no for a corner and the result was a 72 yard touchdown that cut the lead to 14. The Huskies offense also became inexplicably conservative late as UW punted on its next two possessions although the defense at least rose up and forced a three and out in between those two stalled drives.
The UW defense also lost their minds again on Illinois' second drive following the touchdown as over-aggressiveness left a receiver wide open on a double-reverse pass for a 35 yard gain. That big play led to a short rushing touchdown as Illinois pulled to within one defensive stop of getting a shot at forcing overtime. Fortunately for the Huskies, they were able to put a drive together, bleed the clock, and kick a field goal to go up 10 and put the game away. The Huskies are a really good team and they played well but they need to take better care of the ball and do a better job of putting teams away late. then again, if you're biggest concern is how you play with a 21 point lead, that means you're pretty good.
The biggest question mark coming into the game was the UCLA defensive backs and how they would hold up. It didn't take long for that question to be answered and the unfortunate answer was that they were not very good. No one in the UCLA secondary could cover Quincy Enuwa or Kenny Bell as Nebraska started ripping the Bruins secondary early and often. Nebraska's first touchdown drive ended with two UCLA DBs running with a slot receiver on a seem route leaving Enuwa completely uncovered on a slant route for an 11 yard touchdown. UCLA responded with a field goal but Nebraska came back onto the field and put together another efficient drive that ended with Enuwa beating UCLA corner Fabian Moreau off the line and then won a jump ball in the endzone. Later in the second quarter with the score still 14-3, UCLA had another disastrous miscue as UCLA punter Sean Covington dropped a snap and handed Nebraska the ball at the UCLA 26. Two plays later the ball was in the end zone again as Moreau got beat on a corner route by Bell to make the score 21-3. UCLA took the ball following the Bell touchdown and desperately needed a score to stay in the game but after a missed field goal it sure looked like UCLA was cooked.
However, the Bruins defense final stiffened and forced a three and out and then took the ball and scored a touchdown to get back in the game. The drive was highlighted by QB Brett Hundley making a special play that few can make. He shook off a pair of tackles in the backfield and scrambled 13 yards for the first down. On the next play, Hundley hit Devin Fuller on a well designed crossing route as Fuller came across the field and the Nebraska corner got caught in traffic trying to run with Fuller. Fuller's 32 yard catch and run put UCLA on the door step and two plays later, Paul Perkins got the ball on a draw play and found a seam for the score. Little did we know that finally getting a stop and a scoring drive would spark UCLA to one heck of a comeback. UCLA made some adjustments at halftime and completely dominated Nebraska in the second half. After being pushed around for most of the game, UCLA's front seven took over the game and allowed only four first downs the rest of the way. UCLA scored touchdowns on all four of its 3rd quarter possessions and suddenly this game became a blowout in the other direction as the Bruins went on to win 41-21.
UCLA should be proud of their performance and know that they won one for Nick and did it in the best way possible by fighting and showing resilience in the face of almost insurmountable odds. I will say this though, the secondary is still a significant concern despite the great second half defensive performance. Most if not all of Nebraska's second half incompletions and poor throws were forced by pressure in the backfield. I never got a great look at whether Nebraska had open receivers in the 2nd half but UCLA's pressure made sure Martinez didn't have time to find them. UCLA's corners played very poorly to start the game and did not get much of a chance to atone in the second half so they are still a concern going forward.
Stanford 34, Army 20. There was another Pac-12 team in action early yesterday but that game wasn't nearly as noteworthy. The Cardinal started incredibly sloppy as Kevin Hogan fumbled on the opening possession to set up a short field goal and then a quick three and out set up another field goal to put Stanford behind 6-0 early and spark UPSET ALERT on every internet media source. But then Stanford settled down and found a groove with a six play, 75 yard drive to take the lead and put Stanford in control. The Cardinal went on to score 17 unanswered and it looked like Stanford had full control but Stanford's defense committed an uncharacteristic mistake by giving Army's Terry Baggett the edge uncontested for a 46 yard run to set up a touchdown to make it 17-13 just before the half. Army had the ball to start the 3rd with a chance to retake control but Stanford's defense rose to the occasion by forcing a punt and after Stanford's offense couldn't get untracked, the Cardinal pounced on a fumble. That turnover got the offense going as Tyler Gaffney broke a screen pass for a 23 yard touchdown on a 2nd and 16 to make it 24-13 and effectively put the game away.
This was a very sloppy and below standard performance for the Cardinal. You can attribute a lot of this performance to the long road trip as jet lag and 9:00 AM often don't go together very well. That being said, Stanford has started to develop a nasty habit of playing down to the level of their competition. Just think of last year's games against San Jose State, USC, Washington, Arizona, and Washington State and now this. That's six teams ranging from middling to poor with no business hanging with a top 10 team like Stanford yet the Cardinal had trouble putting all of them away. They inexplicably lost to Washington and trailed by 10 to Arizona with under three minutes to go last year. You always hear that good teams need to beat up on the bad teams when they get a chance. Well, Stanford needs to start acting like a good team before it bites them in the butt again like it did last year.
USC 35, Boston College 7. Well, well, well, maybe USC has an offense after all. The Trojans have been rancid offensively before yesterday but maybe all it took was for Lane Kiffin to make up his mind on a QB. Truth be told, both Cody Kessler and Max Wittek saw the field just like the previous two games but yesterday it was for entirely different reasons. Kessler got the start and was never replaced while the game was in doubt and he finally looked like a competent passer. Kessler completed 15 of 17 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Most of Kessler's passes were set up by play action thanks to a stellar effort from tailbacks Tre Madden and Justin Davis. Madden and Davis combined for 198 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
Boston College isn't a good team but neither are Hawaii or Washington State so it was good to see USC finally dominate a bad team like they're supposed to. What we need to see now is whether Kessler can remain effective and mistake free when he isn't buoyed by a run game. Eventually, USC will run into a strong defense that can stop Madden and Davis and take away the effectiveness of Kessler's play action while forcing Kessler into obvious pass situations on 2nd and 3rd and long. Can Kessler still find receivers when the defense knows he's going to throw? Better yet, can he throw in the face of pressure? The answer was no against Hawaii and Wazzou but Boston College wasn't able to get anyone in the backfield yesterday. The Trojans will face much better pass rushers in the weeks to come so it'll be interesting to see if Kessler's new found confidence still applies when 300 pound monsters are breathing in his face but those answers can wait. For now USC looks a lot better than it did a week ago and Lane Kiffin can relax in his office for at least one more week.
Oregon 59, Tennessee 14. Remember when Marcus Mariota was struggling as a passer and everyone was worried that he was regressing and becoming a running back with a live arm? That was fun. Mariota started slow again as he completed just two of his first seven pass attempts which included overthrowing a wide open receiver on third down to end each of the Ducks first two possessions. But, Mariota suddenly flipped a switch and completed 21 of his next 26 throws (that included two throwaways under pressure by the way) and finished with a career high 456 yards (first 400 yard passing game for an Oregon QB since 2005) and four touchdown plus another score on the ground. The Ducks were sloppy all over the field early as the Ducks started with consecutive three and outs, the second of which came after a fumble set Oregon up at the Tennessee 29 and resulted in a missed field goal (some things never change).
The Ducks defense had a major breakdown on Tennessee's ensuing possession as a miscommunication left Vols wideout Josh Smith open by at least 30 yards as he notched a 51 yard catch and run. The play set up a touchdown and then Oregon proceeded to have a touchdown of their own wiped out by an offensive pass interference call that forced a field goal attempt. Suddenly Oregon was down 7-3 and Tennessee was building confidence. Then Oregon stopped playing around and began ripping the Vols to pieces on offense and defense. Oregon completely out manned Tennessee's vaunted offensive line as the Ducks used only four or five men in the box on every play and Tennessee still couldn't run on them. The Ducks chose to drop seven to eight men into coverage on every play and the Vols couldn't get anyone open. The Oregon offense finally kicked into high gear on its third possession as a long Bralon Addison punt return set up a touchdown pass to freshman tight end John Mundt who started in place of Colt Lyerla reportedly because of an illness. That quick scoring drive started a run of eight consecutive touchdown drives, seven of which happened in under two minutes.
Now that Mariota has hit his stride, Oregon might actually be unstoppable. I'm not going to lie, the Ducks looked amazing yesterday and I don't see many flaws that better teams can exploit.
Washington 34, Illinois 24. Washington looked very impressive again as the Huskies out gained Illinois 615-327. Keith Price has regained his 2011 form and then some as he finished 28/35 for 342 and two touchdowns while Bishop Sankey complemented him on the ground with 208 rushing yards. You might ask, "How did they win by only 10 when they looked so utterly dominant?" The answer is a bunch of really dumb mistakes. The Huskies lost a pair of fumbles that cost them productive drives in the 1st half that resulted in the halftime lead being only 10-3. The Huskies were also incredibly undisciplined as UW committed 12 penalties for 104 yards. Many of those flags allowed Illinois to extend drives and keep the Huskies offense on the sideline.
I'll confess that I don't get Big Ten Network and couldn't find an online stream for this game until late in the third quarter so I don't have too much analysis of how UW played. I was a little perturbed by how Washington's defense played after the Huskies went up 31-10 in the 4th. On the first play from scrimmage following a Jaydon Mickens touchdown catch to make it 31-10, UW corner Gregory Ducre made a horrible mistake by allowing Illinois receiver Ryan Lankford to get a free inside release with no safety help coming over the top. That is the ultimate no-no for a corner and the result was a 72 yard touchdown that cut the lead to 14. The Huskies offense also became inexplicably conservative late as UW punted on its next two possessions although the defense at least rose up and forced a three and out in between those two stalled drives.
The UW defense also lost their minds again on Illinois' second drive following the touchdown as over-aggressiveness left a receiver wide open on a double-reverse pass for a 35 yard gain. That big play led to a short rushing touchdown as Illinois pulled to within one defensive stop of getting a shot at forcing overtime. Fortunately for the Huskies, they were able to put a drive together, bleed the clock, and kick a field goal to go up 10 and put the game away. The Huskies are a really good team and they played well but they need to take better care of the ball and do a better job of putting teams away late. then again, if you're biggest concern is how you play with a 21 point lead, that means you're pretty good.
Saturday, 14 September 2013
The Saturday Slate: Week Three (Part One)
Welcome to "Show Me Somethin' Saturday" in the Pac-12. This is perhaps the biggest set of non-conference games the Pac-12 has played in a decade. Four marquee match ups with the Big Ten with two in Pac-12 stadiums and two at Big ten stadiums. The games include a pair of top 26 showdowns and a chance for one of the Pac-12's lower tier programs to make a major statement against the Big Ten's best. In other action, the SEC and the ACC will each send a representative to the west coast while game two of the Pac-12 conference schedule will kick off late tonight. This is the big one folks, by the time we all go to bed at the end of the night, the Pac-12 will either be firmly in place as the lone challenger to the SEC's dominance, or it will fall back to the pack or even behind the likes of the Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC. Today is huge and it all gets started bright and early...
All times are Pacific
#16 UCLA at #23 Nebraska (-3), 9:00 AM on ABC
All the national attention is being placed squarely on the Alabama-Texas A&M game but, there is another all top-25 showdown taking place as the Bruins visit the Huskers. Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini has talked a big game all week about how Nebraska "owes them (UCLA) for last year." You might remember that 370 days ago, UCLA upset then #16 Nebraska 36-30 at the Rose Bowl behind 653 yards of total offense. Brett Hundley had his coming out party on a national stage with 305 yards and four touchdowns passing as Jim L. Mora got his first signature win as head Bruin.
Unfortunately for Pelini, his mouth might be writing cheques that his defense can't cash. Nebraska has struggled mightily on defense. The Huskers were very middling on defense finishing 35th in yards allowed per game and 58th in points allowed per game last year. Its numbers were poor as is however, Nebraska was aided by playing in the offensively anemic Big Ten. Had Nebraska played a Big 12 or Pac-12 schedule, the numbers would have been a lot worse. Nebraska gave up over 600 yards to Wyoming (yes that Wyoming) in Week One before shutting down hapless Southern Miss (the only 0-12 team last year) one week ago. I'm guessing the Nebraska defense that shows up today will look more like the unit that got sliced by Wyoming and that's bad news against a loaded UCLA offense.
Nebraska has a very good offense led by fifth year senior QB Taylor Martinez, a four year starter. Martinez has been at the butt end of many jokes in the college football blog-o-sphere over the years for his ugly throwing motion and poor mechanics. However, Martinez has slowly improved his passing ability over the years and posted a respectable 62% completion percentage. He's been very good so far this season, completed 32 of 45 passes for 325 yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception in about a game and a half. His passing has gotten better but he has always been an elite runner, see 2972 yards (that includes yards lost due to sacks) and 31 TDs on the ground for his career. UCLA has a dominant front seven that should be able to keep Martinez in the pocket and prevent star tailback Ameer Abdullah from ripping off big gains. The concern for UCLA is the secondary facing Martinez and All-Big Ten wideout Kenny Bell. The Bruins have four new starters in the secondary and a game against run heavy Nebada and a bye week has provided no answers one way or another about UCLA's coverage abilities.
The biggest concern for UCLA might be the absurdly early start time. You might remember that the last time a Pac-12 team played a power conference foe at 9:00 AM, it didn't go so well. The fortunate thing for the Bruins is they had a perfectly timed bye week. Thanks to having the last week off, UCLA has been practicing at 8:00 AM every day for two weeks now so the players body clocks will be ready and prepared for the early kickoff. I think UCLA will struggle out of the gates but it will be more from being unnerved early from playing the first road game of the year in a very loud and hostile environment. The Bruins will struggle at times against Martinez and the offense might stall early while it figures out how to combat the crowd noise. Ultimately though, I think the Bruins defense will rise to the challenge and Nebraska's defense will struggle mightily to run with UCLA's offense. I'm going to take the points and pick UCLA to win outright, 38-31.
#5 Stanford (-30) at Army, 9:00 AM on CBS Sports Network
After a solid opening performance against San Jose State last week, the Cardinal get a significant step down in competition as they go across the country to face the Black Knights. Thanks to being a service academy that requires all of its players to serve in the armed forces after graduation, Army has significant size limitations for its players. Army averages about 250 pounds per player on both the offensive and defensive lines and will be giving up about 60-70 pounds per player to Stanford's lines.
Army runs the old triple option and runs the ball on nearly every play. The Army offense is predicated on running to all angles of the field and testing a team's ability to maintain gap integrity, assignments, and tackle in space. the horrible news for Army is that in addition to being significantly larger, Stanford also excels in these three areas. There's not much to break down here, Stanford should physically dominate and out man Army on both sides of the ball and blow them out. I have Stanford winning this one big, 41-3.
Fresno State at Colorado, Postponed
Colorado was eager for a big measuring stick game against arguably the best non-AQ team in college football however it will have to wait, perhaps forever. Due to severe flooding throughout Colorado but especially in Boulder that has reportedly already claimed four lives, this game has been postponed indefinitely. The two schools are targeting conference championship weekend (Dec.7) as a make up date. You may recall that Oregon State used these exact same logistics last season to make up a postponed game against Nicholls State after Nicholls was unable to travel out of Louisiana due to Hurricane Isaac. However, The Mountain West Conference is staging a conference championship for the first time this season and Fresno is a strong contender to play in it. As a result, the two schools are trying to swap bye weeks with a third team in order to guarantee the game will take place.
The health and safety of thousands is far more important than any football game so I'm glad to see this game postponed after University officials originally announced on Thursday that the game would proceed as planned. Stay safe out there Colorado friends, and make sure you keep Ralphie high and dry.
Boston College at USC (-14), 12:00 PM on Pac-12 Network
The good news for USC is that the Trojans are finally halting their game of musical quarterbacks and have settled on one full time starter. The bad news is that USC's full time guy is Cody Kessler who has completed just 56.3% of his passes for 136 yards with a pair of interceptions. As bad as Kessler has been, he is the right call which is entirely an indictment of Max Wittek who has looked awful since coming off the bench for an injured Matt Barkley late last season. Kessler has struggled but he has led more productive drives than Wittek and has thrown USC's only touchdown pass this season and scored the Trojans only touchdown last week with his legs. USC's offense as a whole has been entirely short on confidence and many have tied that to Lane Kiffin flip flopping his QBs. Picking one passer should provide a shot of swagger for Kessler and we'll see if it has a positive effect on the rest of the offense. Then again, this unit might be broken beyond repair and beyond saving through motivational tactics.
As for this game, don't watch it because USC will likely be just as stifled offensively as before. While BC has been at least somewhat competent offensively (5.59 yards per play compared to 4.07 for USC), the Eagles have done it against mostly sub par competition and do not have nearly enough talent to score consistently on the USC defense. I think the Trojans will be able to put together a few scoring drives and even a small improvement offensively combined with another stellar defensive effort should be enough. But, I'm not sure if I trust USC to score 14 points total, never mind beat any team by two touchdowns. I'll take the points and I won't watch a second of this snoozer that USC will win 20-13.
Tennessee at #2 Oregon (-28), 12:30 PM on ABC
Oregon returns home from a big win over Virginia and welcomes in another foe from a big time conference as SEC program Tennessee comes to Autzen Stadium. This is the second game of a home-and-home series between the Ducks and Volunteers. In the first game back in 2010 Tennessee raced out to a 13-3 lead on the then #7 Ducks and had Oregon on upset alert. However, Oregon proceeded to reel off 45 unanswered points and scored on offense, defense, and special teams while turning the game into a 48-13 rout.
Three years have passed and a lot has changed for both programs (each has changed coaches for starters) but I anticipate a similar result. Tennessee's lines are bigger, stronger, and more physical than anything Oregon has seen since the Fiesta Bowl in January. That being said, the Vols defensive front has already taken a big hit as senior defensive tackle Maurice Couch has been suspended for this game. Couch is one of five players who allegedly took money and other gifts from an agent and that violates the NCAA's rules on amateurism. As a side note, Athletes in Space hates the NCAA as an organization and its hopelessly antiquated and nonsensical rulebook. I sincerely hope that Couch did take the money and I hope he gets away with it.
The Vols fronts might give the Ducks some trouble early and that might keep them in the game but don't kid yourself into thinking Tennessee has the overall depth and talent at all positions to hang with Oregon past halftime. The SEC may be known for its play in the trenches but Oregon is equally adept at dominating the line of scrimmage. Oregon is allowing just 2.78 yards per rush and has recorded eight sacks so far this season while allowing none.
The Oregon offense should be unstoppable as always but I expect Marcus Mariota to improve his accuracy in the passing game while the Ducks produce the same dominance on the ground. Tennessee can play with the Ducks for a little while but I anticipate Oregon turning on the afterburners and leaving the Vols in the dust. I'll take Oregon to cover the big spread and win 52-17.
Last Week Against the Spread: 7-2
Last Week Straight Up: 8-1
This Season Against the Spread: 12-7
This Season Straight Up: 15-4
Part Two will be posted in a little while.
All times are Pacific
#16 UCLA at #23 Nebraska (-3), 9:00 AM on ABC
All the national attention is being placed squarely on the Alabama-Texas A&M game but, there is another all top-25 showdown taking place as the Bruins visit the Huskers. Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini has talked a big game all week about how Nebraska "owes them (UCLA) for last year." You might remember that 370 days ago, UCLA upset then #16 Nebraska 36-30 at the Rose Bowl behind 653 yards of total offense. Brett Hundley had his coming out party on a national stage with 305 yards and four touchdowns passing as Jim L. Mora got his first signature win as head Bruin.
Unfortunately for Pelini, his mouth might be writing cheques that his defense can't cash. Nebraska has struggled mightily on defense. The Huskers were very middling on defense finishing 35th in yards allowed per game and 58th in points allowed per game last year. Its numbers were poor as is however, Nebraska was aided by playing in the offensively anemic Big Ten. Had Nebraska played a Big 12 or Pac-12 schedule, the numbers would have been a lot worse. Nebraska gave up over 600 yards to Wyoming (yes that Wyoming) in Week One before shutting down hapless Southern Miss (the only 0-12 team last year) one week ago. I'm guessing the Nebraska defense that shows up today will look more like the unit that got sliced by Wyoming and that's bad news against a loaded UCLA offense.
Nebraska has a very good offense led by fifth year senior QB Taylor Martinez, a four year starter. Martinez has been at the butt end of many jokes in the college football blog-o-sphere over the years for his ugly throwing motion and poor mechanics. However, Martinez has slowly improved his passing ability over the years and posted a respectable 62% completion percentage. He's been very good so far this season, completed 32 of 45 passes for 325 yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception in about a game and a half. His passing has gotten better but he has always been an elite runner, see 2972 yards (that includes yards lost due to sacks) and 31 TDs on the ground for his career. UCLA has a dominant front seven that should be able to keep Martinez in the pocket and prevent star tailback Ameer Abdullah from ripping off big gains. The concern for UCLA is the secondary facing Martinez and All-Big Ten wideout Kenny Bell. The Bruins have four new starters in the secondary and a game against run heavy Nebada and a bye week has provided no answers one way or another about UCLA's coverage abilities.
The biggest concern for UCLA might be the absurdly early start time. You might remember that the last time a Pac-12 team played a power conference foe at 9:00 AM, it didn't go so well. The fortunate thing for the Bruins is they had a perfectly timed bye week. Thanks to having the last week off, UCLA has been practicing at 8:00 AM every day for two weeks now so the players body clocks will be ready and prepared for the early kickoff. I think UCLA will struggle out of the gates but it will be more from being unnerved early from playing the first road game of the year in a very loud and hostile environment. The Bruins will struggle at times against Martinez and the offense might stall early while it figures out how to combat the crowd noise. Ultimately though, I think the Bruins defense will rise to the challenge and Nebraska's defense will struggle mightily to run with UCLA's offense. I'm going to take the points and pick UCLA to win outright, 38-31.
#5 Stanford (-30) at Army, 9:00 AM on CBS Sports Network
After a solid opening performance against San Jose State last week, the Cardinal get a significant step down in competition as they go across the country to face the Black Knights. Thanks to being a service academy that requires all of its players to serve in the armed forces after graduation, Army has significant size limitations for its players. Army averages about 250 pounds per player on both the offensive and defensive lines and will be giving up about 60-70 pounds per player to Stanford's lines.
Army runs the old triple option and runs the ball on nearly every play. The Army offense is predicated on running to all angles of the field and testing a team's ability to maintain gap integrity, assignments, and tackle in space. the horrible news for Army is that in addition to being significantly larger, Stanford also excels in these three areas. There's not much to break down here, Stanford should physically dominate and out man Army on both sides of the ball and blow them out. I have Stanford winning this one big, 41-3.
Fresno State at Colorado, Postponed
Colorado was eager for a big measuring stick game against arguably the best non-AQ team in college football however it will have to wait, perhaps forever. Due to severe flooding throughout Colorado but especially in Boulder that has reportedly already claimed four lives, this game has been postponed indefinitely. The two schools are targeting conference championship weekend (Dec.7) as a make up date. You may recall that Oregon State used these exact same logistics last season to make up a postponed game against Nicholls State after Nicholls was unable to travel out of Louisiana due to Hurricane Isaac. However, The Mountain West Conference is staging a conference championship for the first time this season and Fresno is a strong contender to play in it. As a result, the two schools are trying to swap bye weeks with a third team in order to guarantee the game will take place.
The health and safety of thousands is far more important than any football game so I'm glad to see this game postponed after University officials originally announced on Thursday that the game would proceed as planned. Stay safe out there Colorado friends, and make sure you keep Ralphie high and dry.
Boston College at USC (-14), 12:00 PM on Pac-12 Network
The good news for USC is that the Trojans are finally halting their game of musical quarterbacks and have settled on one full time starter. The bad news is that USC's full time guy is Cody Kessler who has completed just 56.3% of his passes for 136 yards with a pair of interceptions. As bad as Kessler has been, he is the right call which is entirely an indictment of Max Wittek who has looked awful since coming off the bench for an injured Matt Barkley late last season. Kessler has struggled but he has led more productive drives than Wittek and has thrown USC's only touchdown pass this season and scored the Trojans only touchdown last week with his legs. USC's offense as a whole has been entirely short on confidence and many have tied that to Lane Kiffin flip flopping his QBs. Picking one passer should provide a shot of swagger for Kessler and we'll see if it has a positive effect on the rest of the offense. Then again, this unit might be broken beyond repair and beyond saving through motivational tactics.
As for this game, don't watch it because USC will likely be just as stifled offensively as before. While BC has been at least somewhat competent offensively (5.59 yards per play compared to 4.07 for USC), the Eagles have done it against mostly sub par competition and do not have nearly enough talent to score consistently on the USC defense. I think the Trojans will be able to put together a few scoring drives and even a small improvement offensively combined with another stellar defensive effort should be enough. But, I'm not sure if I trust USC to score 14 points total, never mind beat any team by two touchdowns. I'll take the points and I won't watch a second of this snoozer that USC will win 20-13.
Tennessee at #2 Oregon (-28), 12:30 PM on ABC
Oregon returns home from a big win over Virginia and welcomes in another foe from a big time conference as SEC program Tennessee comes to Autzen Stadium. This is the second game of a home-and-home series between the Ducks and Volunteers. In the first game back in 2010 Tennessee raced out to a 13-3 lead on the then #7 Ducks and had Oregon on upset alert. However, Oregon proceeded to reel off 45 unanswered points and scored on offense, defense, and special teams while turning the game into a 48-13 rout.
Three years have passed and a lot has changed for both programs (each has changed coaches for starters) but I anticipate a similar result. Tennessee's lines are bigger, stronger, and more physical than anything Oregon has seen since the Fiesta Bowl in January. That being said, the Vols defensive front has already taken a big hit as senior defensive tackle Maurice Couch has been suspended for this game. Couch is one of five players who allegedly took money and other gifts from an agent and that violates the NCAA's rules on amateurism. As a side note, Athletes in Space hates the NCAA as an organization and its hopelessly antiquated and nonsensical rulebook. I sincerely hope that Couch did take the money and I hope he gets away with it.
The Vols fronts might give the Ducks some trouble early and that might keep them in the game but don't kid yourself into thinking Tennessee has the overall depth and talent at all positions to hang with Oregon past halftime. The SEC may be known for its play in the trenches but Oregon is equally adept at dominating the line of scrimmage. Oregon is allowing just 2.78 yards per rush and has recorded eight sacks so far this season while allowing none.
The Oregon offense should be unstoppable as always but I expect Marcus Mariota to improve his accuracy in the passing game while the Ducks produce the same dominance on the ground. Tennessee can play with the Ducks for a little while but I anticipate Oregon turning on the afterburners and leaving the Vols in the dust. I'll take Oregon to cover the big spread and win 52-17.
Last Week Against the Spread: 7-2
Last Week Straight Up: 8-1
This Season Against the Spread: 12-7
This Season Straight Up: 15-4
Part Two will be posted in a little while.
Friday, 13 September 2013
The Saturday Slate: Week Three (Part Two)
#19 Washington (-10) at Illinois, neutral site game from Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, 3:00 PM on Big Ten Network
The last time we saw the Huskies, they were beating up a good Boise State team that was supposed to challenge them. Today, the Huskies resume their season after a week off with another quality opponent. The Huskies have come a long way already this season but now we will find out if Washington has improved perhaps its greatest shortcoming: playing on the road. Since Steve Sarkisian took over as head coach, Washignton is 7-18 in road and neutral site games.
It's hard to get a great read on this game considering both the venue and the opponent. The Huskies are not visiting Illinois' Memorial Stadium in Champaign and will instead be playing this game in Chicago at Soldier Field. Obviously, this is still a road game and it will be a pro-Illinois crowd but the stadium likely won't be full and won't have the atmosphere of a Chicago Bears game. Also, Washington received a fairly large ticket allotment for this game and reportedly sold most of it so this might turn out to be a neutral game after all.
As for the opponent, it's almost impossible to get a good read on the Fighting Illini. Illinois went 2-10 last year and was the laughing stock of the Big Ten. So far this year, They nearly blew an 18 point fourth quarter lead against FCS Southern Illinois and followed that by blowing out Cincinnati, a borderline top 25 team. Illinois is a team that prefers to play only one side of the ball. The Illini possess a very potent offense led by fifth year senior (and four year starter) Nathan Sheelhaase. Sheelhaase was hurt for most of last year and Illinois can attribute several of its 10 losses to that. So far this year, Sheelhaase is completing 74% of his throws for 728 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. Sheelhaase is a very accurate passer who can throw to all quadrants of the field, spreads the ball around to all his receivers, and extend plays with his legs.
Sheelhaase and the Illinois offense will be a great test for the Huskies defense that dominated two weeks ago. As for the Illini defense, well they probably won't offer much resistance. Illinois is surrendering 6.12 yards per play this season and while opponents have struggled to be efficient against Illinois (59% opponent completions and 3.69 yards per rush), the Illini have surrendered a lot of big plays.
Washington has a big advantage in talent and team speed and I like the match up of Washington's hybrid 4-3 against the Illini offense. That being said, Washington on the road scares me and I'm not going to believe the Huskies can dominate away from Seattle until I actually see them do it. I think Illinois can move the ball and will keep this one close so I'll go ahead and take the points and say the Huskies win 38-33.
Southern Utah at Washington State (-21.5), 3:30 PM on Pac-12 Network
Washington State will look to build on a program defining win last week over USC with a match up against an over matched FCS opponent. There's not much to see in this game and Wazzou should win, nay better win big. The main thing to watch is Wazzou QB Connor Halliday and whether he can start making better decisions with the football and avoid committing turnovers. Halliday has already thrown five picks this season and frankly had another two or three interceptions that were dropped in the Auburn game. If he can't get it together and keep the offense moving against Southern Utah, then it should probably be time for Mike Leach to give someone else a shot with the first team offense.
I do happen to be a believer in Halliday's ability and I think he will play well today. Buoyed by another good defensive effort, I think Wazzou will cover and win this one going away, 38-10.
#4 Ohio State (-14.5) at California, 4:00 PM on Fox
Okay, before I talk about this game, I need to talk a little bit about the Buckeyes travel logistics. Ohio State produced over $140,000,000 in athletic department revenue last year so they can afford to rent a pretty nice hotel on the road. However, instead of staying in Berkeley or finding a hotel in a quiet neighborhood somewhere in the bay area, OSU is staying in freaking downtown Oakland. Last night gunshots were reportedly heard within a block of the team hotel. So, hopefully the buses Ohio State chartered to get to the stadium don't get caught in a drive-by shooting and this game will be able to go off without a hitch.
Once the Buckeyes do arrive at the stadium, Ohio State should win. The Buckeyes have have not lost in 14 games under head coach Urban Meyer and possess a major advantage in talent and especially in depth over the Bears. The health of star QB Braxton Miller is a concern as he left last week's game with a sprained MCL in his left knee. Miller is questionable for this game however backup QB Kenny Guiton is very capable and looked every bit as good as Miller in relief last week.
the Buckeyes struggled defensively at times last year but have a ton of talent on that unit led by All-Americans like corner Bradley Roby and linebacker Ryan Shazier as well as rising young stars like defensive linemen Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. OSU hasn't really been challenged this year nor have they faced an offense like that of Cal. It will be interesting to see how the Buckeyes try to game plan against the Bear Raid. I also want to see if Ohio State can respond to adversity and keep its composure on the road if and when Cal is able to keep the game close.
Ohio State has some question marks in the defensive backfield outside of Roby so I think Cal can move the ball simply by throwing away from him. Roby might be able to shut down Bryce Treggs but Cal should find favorable match ups with Chris Harper, Darius Powe Jr., and Richard Rodgers. Cal's defense on the other hand is in for a tough day. The Bears have struggled to get stops in both games this year and will be without their best linebacker Nick Forbes and starting defensive end Brennan Scarlett. Chris McCain, Cal's best pass rusher is questionable.
With or without Miller, I expect OSU to move the ball consistently although I think Jared Goff and the Bear Raid can keep this one reasonably close. 14.5 seems like a lot for a banged up team playing its first road game against a quality opponent so I'll go ahead and take the points and predict a 38-24 Ohio State victory.
Oregon State at Utah (-3), 7:00 PM on Fox Sports 1
I'm sure you'll spend most of the evening watching the Wisconsin-ASU game but feel free to flip over to this one during commercials and get drunk on passing yards. OSU's Sean Mannion and Utah's Travis Wilson will try to go throw for throw in what could be a classic Pac-12 shootout. Oregon State has had well documented struggles defensively through two games while Utah was consistently gashed by Chuckie Keaton and Utah State in week one. I have no doubt both teams will move the ball and score (although I am still waiting to see if Utah can establish its run game) so this game will come down to who can rise up defensively.
I think Oregon State has some very good players defensively who have struggled to maintain focus and discipline in both games this year. OSU has often been a good road team under Mike Riley and I do think going on the road will help this defense rise to the occasion and start playing better. On the other hand, I just think Utah's offense is really good and they'll be able to manufacture some big passing plays. Oregon State should get yards as well but their offensive line is really banged up right now (star center Isaac Seumalo who has missed time this year himself is expected to play as many as three positions tonight). This is a poor time for OSU to start suffering on the O-line against a strong and tenacious Utah defensive front. Oregon State is famous for starting slow and getting one big win to put the team in gear before reeling off a big win streak. I am fully prepared to feel like an idiot while I watch tonight be that game for the Beavers but I simply think Utah is a better team and will be able to win this one at home, 35-31.
Texas-San Antonio at Arizona (-24.5), 7:30 PM on Pac-12 Network
Yawn, another week and another cupcake opponent for the Wildcats. It's week three and we still don't know anything definitive about Arizona. UTSA might be a slight step up from Northern Arizona and UNLV but it's not much. UTSA did have a good game offensively last week scoring 35 points against an Oklahoma State team that held Mississippi State to three points in week one. Arizona might finally show some holes on defense but the offense should run wild on the Roadrunners. The only thing to watch closely is still QB B.J. Denker. Denker has looked good in Arizona's zone read game this season but has been very poor from the pocket. At least he has taken care of the ball and hasn't thrown an interception but he has really struggled with his accuracy. Denker possesses below average arm strength so we knew the Wildcats deep game would be non-existent but if Denker can't complete those short passes, Zona might be in trouble.
Even if Denker struggles to throw once again, Ka'Deem Carey should run wild and that alone might be enough to cover the spread. I'll take Arizona to win big again, 48-21.
#20 Wisconsin at Arizona State (-4.5), 7:30 PM on ESPN
The final night cap is a big one as two Rose Bowl dark horses collide in Tempe. Neither team has allowed a single point this season but that will change as both teams have great offenses led by electrifying run games. Between Wisconsin's James White and Melvin Gordon and ASU's Marion Grice and D.J. Foster, there are four future NFL tailbacks in this game and all four might eventually be starters at the next level. Obviously, the defensive numbers aren't all they're cracked up to be as the three opponents faced by these two teams so far are a pair of FCS teams and UMass, arguably the single worst team at the FBS level.
Keep a very close eye on the game within the game being played by Wisconsin's offensive line and ASU's defensive line. Wisconsin has earned the nickname of "O-line U" by sending multiple blockers to the NFL every year while ASU has built one of the nation's most vaunted D-line's led by All-American Will Sutton. If ASU can win up front and halt the Badgers power run game they will come out with a win. If Wisconsin can push ASU back then everything will fall on Grice, Foster, and QB Taylor Kelly to win a shootout. I do like the matchup of ASU's great athletes on offense against the Wisconsin's defense. Despite two impressive performances this year, Wisconsin has long been accosted for having a lack of speed on defense and I don't think that will change overnight. Wisconsin's size and physicality will give ASU occasional problems but I do like ASU to break the 500 yard mark and score some points. I expect a good night from the Sun Devil offense but I also expect a lot of production from Wisconsin's vaunted run game. We should see a lot of offense at Sun Devil Stadium and the general rule is to take the points in a shootout so I will do just that and call a 34-31 Sun Devil victory.
Last Week Against the Spread: 7-2
Last Week Straight Up: 8-1
This Season Against the Spread: 12-7
This Season Straight Up: 15-4
The last time we saw the Huskies, they were beating up a good Boise State team that was supposed to challenge them. Today, the Huskies resume their season after a week off with another quality opponent. The Huskies have come a long way already this season but now we will find out if Washington has improved perhaps its greatest shortcoming: playing on the road. Since Steve Sarkisian took over as head coach, Washignton is 7-18 in road and neutral site games.
It's hard to get a great read on this game considering both the venue and the opponent. The Huskies are not visiting Illinois' Memorial Stadium in Champaign and will instead be playing this game in Chicago at Soldier Field. Obviously, this is still a road game and it will be a pro-Illinois crowd but the stadium likely won't be full and won't have the atmosphere of a Chicago Bears game. Also, Washington received a fairly large ticket allotment for this game and reportedly sold most of it so this might turn out to be a neutral game after all.
As for the opponent, it's almost impossible to get a good read on the Fighting Illini. Illinois went 2-10 last year and was the laughing stock of the Big Ten. So far this year, They nearly blew an 18 point fourth quarter lead against FCS Southern Illinois and followed that by blowing out Cincinnati, a borderline top 25 team. Illinois is a team that prefers to play only one side of the ball. The Illini possess a very potent offense led by fifth year senior (and four year starter) Nathan Sheelhaase. Sheelhaase was hurt for most of last year and Illinois can attribute several of its 10 losses to that. So far this year, Sheelhaase is completing 74% of his throws for 728 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. Sheelhaase is a very accurate passer who can throw to all quadrants of the field, spreads the ball around to all his receivers, and extend plays with his legs.
Sheelhaase and the Illinois offense will be a great test for the Huskies defense that dominated two weeks ago. As for the Illini defense, well they probably won't offer much resistance. Illinois is surrendering 6.12 yards per play this season and while opponents have struggled to be efficient against Illinois (59% opponent completions and 3.69 yards per rush), the Illini have surrendered a lot of big plays.
Washington has a big advantage in talent and team speed and I like the match up of Washington's hybrid 4-3 against the Illini offense. That being said, Washington on the road scares me and I'm not going to believe the Huskies can dominate away from Seattle until I actually see them do it. I think Illinois can move the ball and will keep this one close so I'll go ahead and take the points and say the Huskies win 38-33.
Southern Utah at Washington State (-21.5), 3:30 PM on Pac-12 Network
Washington State will look to build on a program defining win last week over USC with a match up against an over matched FCS opponent. There's not much to see in this game and Wazzou should win, nay better win big. The main thing to watch is Wazzou QB Connor Halliday and whether he can start making better decisions with the football and avoid committing turnovers. Halliday has already thrown five picks this season and frankly had another two or three interceptions that were dropped in the Auburn game. If he can't get it together and keep the offense moving against Southern Utah, then it should probably be time for Mike Leach to give someone else a shot with the first team offense.
I do happen to be a believer in Halliday's ability and I think he will play well today. Buoyed by another good defensive effort, I think Wazzou will cover and win this one going away, 38-10.
#4 Ohio State (-14.5) at California, 4:00 PM on Fox
Okay, before I talk about this game, I need to talk a little bit about the Buckeyes travel logistics. Ohio State produced over $140,000,000 in athletic department revenue last year so they can afford to rent a pretty nice hotel on the road. However, instead of staying in Berkeley or finding a hotel in a quiet neighborhood somewhere in the bay area, OSU is staying in freaking downtown Oakland. Last night gunshots were reportedly heard within a block of the team hotel. So, hopefully the buses Ohio State chartered to get to the stadium don't get caught in a drive-by shooting and this game will be able to go off without a hitch.
Once the Buckeyes do arrive at the stadium, Ohio State should win. The Buckeyes have have not lost in 14 games under head coach Urban Meyer and possess a major advantage in talent and especially in depth over the Bears. The health of star QB Braxton Miller is a concern as he left last week's game with a sprained MCL in his left knee. Miller is questionable for this game however backup QB Kenny Guiton is very capable and looked every bit as good as Miller in relief last week.
the Buckeyes struggled defensively at times last year but have a ton of talent on that unit led by All-Americans like corner Bradley Roby and linebacker Ryan Shazier as well as rising young stars like defensive linemen Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. OSU hasn't really been challenged this year nor have they faced an offense like that of Cal. It will be interesting to see how the Buckeyes try to game plan against the Bear Raid. I also want to see if Ohio State can respond to adversity and keep its composure on the road if and when Cal is able to keep the game close.
Ohio State has some question marks in the defensive backfield outside of Roby so I think Cal can move the ball simply by throwing away from him. Roby might be able to shut down Bryce Treggs but Cal should find favorable match ups with Chris Harper, Darius Powe Jr., and Richard Rodgers. Cal's defense on the other hand is in for a tough day. The Bears have struggled to get stops in both games this year and will be without their best linebacker Nick Forbes and starting defensive end Brennan Scarlett. Chris McCain, Cal's best pass rusher is questionable.
With or without Miller, I expect OSU to move the ball consistently although I think Jared Goff and the Bear Raid can keep this one reasonably close. 14.5 seems like a lot for a banged up team playing its first road game against a quality opponent so I'll go ahead and take the points and predict a 38-24 Ohio State victory.
Oregon State at Utah (-3), 7:00 PM on Fox Sports 1
I'm sure you'll spend most of the evening watching the Wisconsin-ASU game but feel free to flip over to this one during commercials and get drunk on passing yards. OSU's Sean Mannion and Utah's Travis Wilson will try to go throw for throw in what could be a classic Pac-12 shootout. Oregon State has had well documented struggles defensively through two games while Utah was consistently gashed by Chuckie Keaton and Utah State in week one. I have no doubt both teams will move the ball and score (although I am still waiting to see if Utah can establish its run game) so this game will come down to who can rise up defensively.
I think Oregon State has some very good players defensively who have struggled to maintain focus and discipline in both games this year. OSU has often been a good road team under Mike Riley and I do think going on the road will help this defense rise to the occasion and start playing better. On the other hand, I just think Utah's offense is really good and they'll be able to manufacture some big passing plays. Oregon State should get yards as well but their offensive line is really banged up right now (star center Isaac Seumalo who has missed time this year himself is expected to play as many as three positions tonight). This is a poor time for OSU to start suffering on the O-line against a strong and tenacious Utah defensive front. Oregon State is famous for starting slow and getting one big win to put the team in gear before reeling off a big win streak. I am fully prepared to feel like an idiot while I watch tonight be that game for the Beavers but I simply think Utah is a better team and will be able to win this one at home, 35-31.
Texas-San Antonio at Arizona (-24.5), 7:30 PM on Pac-12 Network
Yawn, another week and another cupcake opponent for the Wildcats. It's week three and we still don't know anything definitive about Arizona. UTSA might be a slight step up from Northern Arizona and UNLV but it's not much. UTSA did have a good game offensively last week scoring 35 points against an Oklahoma State team that held Mississippi State to three points in week one. Arizona might finally show some holes on defense but the offense should run wild on the Roadrunners. The only thing to watch closely is still QB B.J. Denker. Denker has looked good in Arizona's zone read game this season but has been very poor from the pocket. At least he has taken care of the ball and hasn't thrown an interception but he has really struggled with his accuracy. Denker possesses below average arm strength so we knew the Wildcats deep game would be non-existent but if Denker can't complete those short passes, Zona might be in trouble.
Even if Denker struggles to throw once again, Ka'Deem Carey should run wild and that alone might be enough to cover the spread. I'll take Arizona to win big again, 48-21.
#20 Wisconsin at Arizona State (-4.5), 7:30 PM on ESPN
The final night cap is a big one as two Rose Bowl dark horses collide in Tempe. Neither team has allowed a single point this season but that will change as both teams have great offenses led by electrifying run games. Between Wisconsin's James White and Melvin Gordon and ASU's Marion Grice and D.J. Foster, there are four future NFL tailbacks in this game and all four might eventually be starters at the next level. Obviously, the defensive numbers aren't all they're cracked up to be as the three opponents faced by these two teams so far are a pair of FCS teams and UMass, arguably the single worst team at the FBS level.
Keep a very close eye on the game within the game being played by Wisconsin's offensive line and ASU's defensive line. Wisconsin has earned the nickname of "O-line U" by sending multiple blockers to the NFL every year while ASU has built one of the nation's most vaunted D-line's led by All-American Will Sutton. If ASU can win up front and halt the Badgers power run game they will come out with a win. If Wisconsin can push ASU back then everything will fall on Grice, Foster, and QB Taylor Kelly to win a shootout. I do like the matchup of ASU's great athletes on offense against the Wisconsin's defense. Despite two impressive performances this year, Wisconsin has long been accosted for having a lack of speed on defense and I don't think that will change overnight. Wisconsin's size and physicality will give ASU occasional problems but I do like ASU to break the 500 yard mark and score some points. I expect a good night from the Sun Devil offense but I also expect a lot of production from Wisconsin's vaunted run game. We should see a lot of offense at Sun Devil Stadium and the general rule is to take the points in a shootout so I will do just that and call a 34-31 Sun Devil victory.
Last Week Against the Spread: 7-2
Last Week Straight Up: 8-1
This Season Against the Spread: 12-7
This Season Straight Up: 15-4
Thursday, 12 September 2013
What Really Happened At USC's Players Only Meeting?
In the wake of an embarrassing loss at home to Washington State, A collection of the USC roster held a players only meeting to discuss what has been going wrong and how they all need to get together and move forward. News of the meeting reached the media, and when the polo shirted army brought questions about this meeting to embattled head coach Lane Kiffin, Kiffin was made out to be a fool when he not only did not know about the meeting but said that "no meeting took place."
A lot of hoopla has been made of this meeting and Kiffin's knowledge or lack thereof about it has become another bullet in the chamber for angry Trojan fans demanding a new coach. But what happened in this meeting that was such a big deal? Is this all being blown out of proportion? Luckily for all of you, Athletes in Space has its ear a little closer to the ground than coach Kiffin and caught wind of this meeting. Prior to this controversial players only meeting, AIP bugged the room and managed to record everything that took place. What you are about to read is a transcript of what occurred behind Kiffin's back.
The Scene: A meeting room within the USC football complex. Marqise Lee has called together a collection of the Trojans football players in an attempt to establish what has gone wrong this season and move forward with a renewed focus. Lee gets up in front of the room and begins to speak to his teammates.
Marqise Lee: Look guys, we need to pick things up here, last week we didn't show what we're capable of but we still have the ability to turn this around. Let's #FIGHTON y'all.
Devon Kennard: Wait Marqise, that's all fine and whatever but don't we need to talk a little about you? I mean I seem to remember you getting the yardage to gain on a 4th and 7 and taking a step backwards to avoid a tackle but then getting stopped short of the line. That did cost us the most important drive of the game you know.
Lee: That's beside the point, and arguing about the past isn't going to do anyth-
Tre Madden: Wait, didn't you also drop a pass on fourth down against Hawaii? And drop another one that would have gone for like a 50 yard touchdown? Are we all sure you should be leading this meeting?
Lee: See this is what I'm talking about, we're just talking about the past and it's killing our confidence man. Look I'm all for airing grievances and if y'all don't think I'm fit to lead this meeting, it's all good. But if I'm not going to be a leader someone else here has to step up and do it.
Max Wittek: I will be a leader.
The room groans.
I am the quarterback and I was chosen to be the quarterback who finished each game. The coaches trust me to lead all of the most important series of the game and you should all trust me to be your leader.
There is a knock at the door, Dion Bailey gets up to investigate.
Bailey: Oh shit, it's Cody
Lee: Okay, no one panic and just let him in. We'll say we we're all getting together for a pizza party or something.
Nelson Agholor: Wouldn't he be pissed about not being invited?
Lee: Dammit.
Cody Kessler gets tired of waiting for a response. He opens the door himself and walks in.
Kessler: Whats going on in here guys? Is this like a players only meeting or something?
Lee: I prefer to call it a "regular get-together."
Kessler: This doesn't seem very regular.
Kennard: That's because it isn't. Look Cody, it's nothing personal against you but right now myself and the rest of the defense are among the best in the country and you've been wasting our efforts with how much you suck.
Wittek: Yeah man, and that's why I should be the full time starter, I'm the best passer here.
Kennard: No Max, you suck too.
Kessler: Do you guys not have YouTube accounts? Coach Kiffin named me the full time starter against Boston College.
The room falls deafly silent.
Lee: Wait, what?
Kessler: Yeah, I'm the starting QB now and I'm going to play the entire game.
Wittek: That's it, I'm outta here. I'm transferring.
Agholor: And who exactly is going to take you after what everyone has seen from you on the field?
Wittek: I'm going back home to play for UConn! I'm going to play with a real coach who understands how to develop a great quarterback.
Agholor: [laughs]...Yeah, and I'm going to transfer back home to Florida and receive passes from Jeff Driskel. Actually comparatively speaking, that doesn't sound so bad...
Lee: Look man, I almost went to Oregon, I could've had Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota but now I'm stuck with you Kessler, and a coach and play caller who looks like a drunk news anchor.
Kessler: See and that's the point! I don't suck, none of us do it's Kiffin that's screwing this all up.
USC Defensive Line coach Ed Orgeron bursts through the wall, and rips his shirt off.
Orgeron: WHATS GOING ON IN HERE! HOW DARE YOU UNDERLINGS TALK DOWN ABOUT THE COACHES!!!!! YOU MUST PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYY!!! WHO WILL CHALLENGE ME!?!?!?!?!?!
Orgeron begins foaming at the mouth and sprouts bull horns. He takes aim at a group of players on the other side of the room. He charges at them, misses, goes through the wall and disappears.
Kennard: Right, the coaches are the problem!
Morgan Breslin: So what are we going to do?
Lee: I have a plan so incredible, so dastardly it will get Kiffin fired by the end of the month. By mid-October, we'll have Jeff Fisher, Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher, Chris Petersen, James Franklin, Charlie Strong, and Bill Cowher!
Breslin: Don't you mean one of those guys will be our coach?
Lee: No! All of them will be here, we'll have seven co-head coaches, I know it because I read it on five different message boards. If five different sources have the same story, it has to be true. And the real kicker is Gruden has already bought some land in LA!
Kennard: Nice, so what's the plan?
Lee: We go on a three game losing streak to Washignton State, Boston College and Utah State all at home.
Agholor: Woah Marqise, that's a little much I mean I know we've been struggling but do you know what you're suggesting? How are we going to lose to three teams that bad all at home?
Lee: I think we all know...
Everyone in the room looks at Kessler and nods. Kessler picks up a football and nods back. He throws the ball toward Lee but misses five feet high and four feet to the right. Even though the game doesn't begin for another two days, the pass is intercepted and returned for a touchdown by a Boston College defender.
A lot of hoopla has been made of this meeting and Kiffin's knowledge or lack thereof about it has become another bullet in the chamber for angry Trojan fans demanding a new coach. But what happened in this meeting that was such a big deal? Is this all being blown out of proportion? Luckily for all of you, Athletes in Space has its ear a little closer to the ground than coach Kiffin and caught wind of this meeting. Prior to this controversial players only meeting, AIP bugged the room and managed to record everything that took place. What you are about to read is a transcript of what occurred behind Kiffin's back.
The Scene: A meeting room within the USC football complex. Marqise Lee has called together a collection of the Trojans football players in an attempt to establish what has gone wrong this season and move forward with a renewed focus. Lee gets up in front of the room and begins to speak to his teammates.
Marqise Lee: Look guys, we need to pick things up here, last week we didn't show what we're capable of but we still have the ability to turn this around. Let's #FIGHTON y'all.
Devon Kennard: Wait Marqise, that's all fine and whatever but don't we need to talk a little about you? I mean I seem to remember you getting the yardage to gain on a 4th and 7 and taking a step backwards to avoid a tackle but then getting stopped short of the line. That did cost us the most important drive of the game you know.
Lee: That's beside the point, and arguing about the past isn't going to do anyth-
Tre Madden: Wait, didn't you also drop a pass on fourth down against Hawaii? And drop another one that would have gone for like a 50 yard touchdown? Are we all sure you should be leading this meeting?
Lee: See this is what I'm talking about, we're just talking about the past and it's killing our confidence man. Look I'm all for airing grievances and if y'all don't think I'm fit to lead this meeting, it's all good. But if I'm not going to be a leader someone else here has to step up and do it.
Max Wittek: I will be a leader.
The room groans.
I am the quarterback and I was chosen to be the quarterback who finished each game. The coaches trust me to lead all of the most important series of the game and you should all trust me to be your leader.
There is a knock at the door, Dion Bailey gets up to investigate.
Bailey: Oh shit, it's Cody
Lee: Okay, no one panic and just let him in. We'll say we we're all getting together for a pizza party or something.
Nelson Agholor: Wouldn't he be pissed about not being invited?
Lee: Dammit.
Cody Kessler gets tired of waiting for a response. He opens the door himself and walks in.
Kessler: Whats going on in here guys? Is this like a players only meeting or something?
Lee: I prefer to call it a "regular get-together."
Kessler: This doesn't seem very regular.
Kennard: That's because it isn't. Look Cody, it's nothing personal against you but right now myself and the rest of the defense are among the best in the country and you've been wasting our efforts with how much you suck.
Wittek: Yeah man, and that's why I should be the full time starter, I'm the best passer here.
Kennard: No Max, you suck too.
Kessler: Do you guys not have YouTube accounts? Coach Kiffin named me the full time starter against Boston College.
The room falls deafly silent.
Lee: Wait, what?
Kessler: Yeah, I'm the starting QB now and I'm going to play the entire game.
Wittek: That's it, I'm outta here. I'm transferring.
Agholor: And who exactly is going to take you after what everyone has seen from you on the field?
Wittek: I'm going back home to play for UConn! I'm going to play with a real coach who understands how to develop a great quarterback.
Agholor: [laughs]...Yeah, and I'm going to transfer back home to Florida and receive passes from Jeff Driskel. Actually comparatively speaking, that doesn't sound so bad...
Lee: Look man, I almost went to Oregon, I could've had Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota but now I'm stuck with you Kessler, and a coach and play caller who looks like a drunk news anchor.
Kessler: See and that's the point! I don't suck, none of us do it's Kiffin that's screwing this all up.
USC Defensive Line coach Ed Orgeron bursts through the wall, and rips his shirt off.
Orgeron: WHATS GOING ON IN HERE! HOW DARE YOU UNDERLINGS TALK DOWN ABOUT THE COACHES!!!!! YOU MUST PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYY!!! WHO WILL CHALLENGE ME!?!?!?!?!?!
Orgeron begins foaming at the mouth and sprouts bull horns. He takes aim at a group of players on the other side of the room. He charges at them, misses, goes through the wall and disappears.
Kennard: Right, the coaches are the problem!
Morgan Breslin: So what are we going to do?
Lee: I have a plan so incredible, so dastardly it will get Kiffin fired by the end of the month. By mid-October, we'll have Jeff Fisher, Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher, Chris Petersen, James Franklin, Charlie Strong, and Bill Cowher!
Breslin: Don't you mean one of those guys will be our coach?
Lee: No! All of them will be here, we'll have seven co-head coaches, I know it because I read it on five different message boards. If five different sources have the same story, it has to be true. And the real kicker is Gruden has already bought some land in LA!
Kennard: Nice, so what's the plan?
Lee: We go on a three game losing streak to Washignton State, Boston College and Utah State all at home.
Agholor: Woah Marqise, that's a little much I mean I know we've been struggling but do you know what you're suggesting? How are we going to lose to three teams that bad all at home?
Lee: I think we all know...
Everyone in the room looks at Kessler and nods. Kessler picks up a football and nods back. He throws the ball toward Lee but misses five feet high and four feet to the right. Even though the game doesn't begin for another two days, the pass is intercepted and returned for a touchdown by a Boston College defender.
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