(Photo cred: Carlos Acenas - Daily Trojan)
The top 40 got underway over the weekend and after a day off
we’re back with another talented young player with volatile talent. Unlike
Chris Harper though, this player has proven production on the field but has been
stuck in a role that doesn’t suit his skill set. As a result, I find myself
putting him a little lower as a junior than I thought I would when he was a
freshman. The 39th best player in the Pac-12 is USC OLB Dion Bailey.
Here is the Pac-12 Top 40 list so far:
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
I promise this part of the countdown will become more
exciting as the list comes along.
Bailey is an undeniable talent who just doesn’t seem to have
found the right fit in USC’s “defense.” I put that word in quotations because
whatever defense USC played as a unit last year was merely an allegation. That
being said, Bailey had a decent enough season in 2012. The Outside Linebacker
spots in a 4-3 defense are typically not very productive positions as the 4-3
and specifically the Tampa 2 which USC ran the last three years under Monte Kiffin is typically designed to get tackles from other positions.
Despite that, Bailey still produced 80
tackles (48 Solo) and eight TFLs (although only one sack). The encouraging portion
of his stat line was his pass defense numbers: four interceptions and nine pass
deflections plus an untold number of incomplete passes due to his man rarely
being open. With his athleticism and nimble frame (listed at just 6-0, 200,
tiny for a linebacker) Bailey did a particularly great job covering slot
receivers.
The Trojans loved to line up in their base 4-3 personnel and
walk Bailey out to the perimeter to cover guys in the slot. However, when teams
went with big personnel and forced Bailey to cover a tight end or when they ran
the ball out of a spread formation, Bailey had his problems. Take this scouting tape of Bailey against Washington as an example of the mixed bag USC got from
Bailey.
He uses good positional zone principles to stay in the
passing lane and intercept a bad pass and he shows off his electric hitting
ability by forcing a fumble at the end of the clip. When he’s highlighted
covering slot receivers you can see he does well covering short passes and even
makes a great play by diagnosing a check down to Bishop Sankey and coming up to
make a solid tackle for a loss. You can also see the problems he has. When the
Trojans kept him inside the box and opposing teams were able to get a blocker
on him, Bailey struggled to shed blocks.
Watch this touchdown USC gave up against Oregon. Oregon
picks out Bailey lined up inside the tackles and runs a screen for Josh Huff
right at him. Oregon actually messed up the play as Oregon C Hroniss Grassu
tried to cut-block Bailey and whiffed but Bailey still wasn’t able to get in
there and make a play on Huff to prevent the touchdown.
Here’s a long video of Oregon highlights against USC. Check out
a few plays to get a sense of Bailey’s struggles when Monte Kiffin put him in
the box.
At 3:33 He finds a hole in the O-line but takes a bad angle
and gets caught out of position. On the next play, TE Colt Lyerla (not a huge
Lineman, Bailey should be able to shed his block at some point) trucks Bailey
and pushes him back about 10 yards and would have kept going if not for the
whistle. At 4:42 he gets lost in the middle of the field and ends up getting to
Kenyon Barner late, he can’t make the tackle and gets knocked over with ease
for his trouble which allows Barner to pick up an extra 30(!) yards. Bailey
wasn’t even blocked initially and was unimpeded in his route to stop Barner on
the sideline but he was slow finding the ball and ended up allowing a 40 yard
run instead of a 10 yard run. At 5:56, he has coverage responsibilities on
Deanthony Thomas but he runs too far into the backfield and opens the door for
Thomas to take a swing pass 10 yards when he should have been in position to
force a throw to another receiver.
These are all little mistakes but you can see how they
snowball into allowing huge plays. It may be a little harsh to pick on Bailey
in particular when the entire defense put forth such a pathetic effort in that
game but you can see the frequent problems he has against the run (and
swing/screen passes that are basically runs that count as passes) when he was
lined up as a traditional linebacker.
So why have him in the top 40 if I’m so down on him as
linebacker? Well, he’s ridiculously talented and he is one of the better zone
coverage defenders in the conference for one but more importantly, it sounds like
he might not be playing linebacker anymore.
I love the idea of Bailey playing Strong Safety. He can stay
away from the box and provide run support from the back end where he is either a
luxury in run support or the last line of defense rather than a first responder.
USC’s new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast can use him as an eighth man
in the box where he can still be a productive tackler however, Bailey can line
up outside the tackles and cover slot receivers exclusively and avoid getting
blocked by lineman whom he cannot shake. Most importantly, his smaller stature
which was a huge concern at linebacker becomes no problem at all as 6-0, 200 is
pretty much the ideal size for a safety.
Of course there is concern over his shoulder surgery which
could take away practice reps and remove precious time Bailey would need to
pick up a new position. However, I think Bailey has the talent and coverage
abilities to pick up the position quickly and be very good at it. But, if
Pendergast decides to leave him at Linebacker then I don’t think Bailey belongs
in the top 40 anymore.
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