With the
2013 college football season starting up in a little more than 50 days, now is
a good time to check in with all 12 coaches in the conference and take a look
at their job security. Here is a breakdown of each coach and what pressures and
expectations they are facing ranked from who has the hottest seat (likely to be
fired) to coolest seat (likely won’t ever be fired).
1. Lane Kiffin, USC: The hottest seat in the Pac-12 is pretty obvious. The Trojans were
ranked number one in the preseason polls last year and the expectation both
inside and outside the athletic department was that the Trojans were going to
break free from the sanctions that held it down and contend for the national
championship. Instead the Trojans completely flopped, as it finished 7-6 and
put up historically bad defensive numbers that would have made Nick Holt proud.
Kiffin had to remove his father Monte
as defensive coordinator which is a really bad sign for him considering that a
big reason he was hired in the first place was so USC could get the NFL legend
to coordinate its defense. With his father gone, Lane Kiffin will likely get
one last chance to prove to administration that he’s the guy. The 10 wins saves
him, nine will probably keep him around for 2014 although Kiffin will have to
sweat out his exit interview, but eight or fewer wins definitely gets him
fired. Remember that AD Pat Haden did not hire Kiffin and after he fired Men's
Basketball head coach mid-season last year, Haden might not hesitate to can
Kiffin before the year is up if USC starts slow.
2. Steve Sarkisian, Washington: I’ll have a full post about Sarkisian and the obstacles he is
facing this year up later but trust me when I tell you that the bloom is
starting to fall off the rose with Sark in Seattle. Sarkisian rescued the
Huskies from the Ty Willingham era and made the team competitive overnight.
However, Sarkisian’s progress has flat lined as the Huskies have repeated the
same 7-6 mark for three consecutive years. Now Coach Sark brings back a loaded
roster of returning talent including the first healthy and experienced
offensive line that he’s had since he got there.
The biggest issue for Sarkisian is
that he was hailed as a great offensive coach who did wonders tutoring young
QBs at USC including Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez. It looked like Sark had
brought that talent to Seattle when Jake Locker was picked in the top 10 and
Keith Price set several school records in 2011. However, after Keith Price’s
drastic regression last season following the departure of offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier to Alabama, many people (myself included) began to
wonder if Sark had been dining out on the success of others at USC and namely
on Nussmeier at Washington. Washington faces the most difficult schedule in the
conference next season but they have the pieces to win at least eight games. If
the Huskies hit that eight win mark and Price gets pack to his 2011 self than
Sarkisian stays. However, another year at 7-5 or god forbid a regression
coupled with continued poor QB play could see Sarkisian out the door and
Nussmeier coming back from Tuscaloosa to replace him.
3. Mark Helfrich, Oregon: Helfrich’s predecessor Chip Kelly had the safest job in the
conference thanks to a 46-7 record. Unfortunately for Helfrich, he is walking
into a situation where both fans and administration are expecting similar results
from him compared to what they got from the last guy. The main reason Helfrich
got the job was because AD Rob Mullens wanted to encourage continuity and
continue building the culture that Chip Kelly created. In light of that, with
15 starters and a lot of depth returning from last year’s 12-1 outfit,
expectations are to win the National Championship. Duck fans have watched their
team win two consecutive non-championship BCS bowls and judging by how few tickets
the University sold for the Fiesta Bowl, fans aren’t getting pumped about anything
less than a championship.
Oregon has way too much talent to win
fewer than 10 games, however a 10-3 mark with all that talent will make people
question his ability. The Ducks should have enough pieces to out-talent
opponents to at least another 10 wins in 2014 but if the Ducks aren’t in the
National Title picture in Helfrich’s first two seasons, he could be looking at
a make or break year in 2015.
4. Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Whittingham was a consistent winner with the Utes in the
Mountain West conference and lead the school to its two greatest achievements as
he led the Utes to victory in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl after Urban Meyer bolted for
Florida and toppled Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl to finish a perfect season.
Utah frequently played Pac-10 opponents in non-conference and performed at a
high level in those match ups leading many to think Utah would step right into
the Pac-12 and be at least a fringe contender. That hasn’t materialized as Utah
lost five games in year one and then slogged through a forgettable 5-7 season
last year, missing out on a bowl for the first time since 2002.
I always thought the idea that Utah
would compete in the Pac-12 from day one was over zealous and unrealistic and I
think Utah’s administration is smart enough to understand that. I also think
Whittingham built up enough good will in his first six years there before joining
the Pac-12 to earn a few transition years. However, if the Utes struggle again and
miss out on a bowl for the second straight year, Whittingham will be feeling
very uncomfortable heading into 2014.
5. Mike Leach, Washington State: Leach came in with bluster and had fans waving pirate flags
with pride and thinking the glory days would return in short order. Year one
turned into a bit of a flop though as WSU struggled in all phases on defense,
was incompetent running the ball, flip flopped between two quarterbacks and committed
turnovers in droves. Those problems don’t even include the whole MarquessWilson fiasco.
However, it is important to remember
that Leach was WSU’s first choice in the hiring process last year and Leach was
AD Bill Moos’ dream hire. In light of that it’s going to take a lot for Moos to
make a move on Leach. Another losing season won’t impact Leach much so long as
the team shows tangible progress which it did as last season went along. I
think the power brokers at WSU know Leach is a great coach and if they look
south to Corvallis and see how many times Oregon State has been rewarded for
sticking with Mike Riley and giving him time to get things right, I think WSU
will give Leach at least two more years before they start to have conversations
about his job security.
6. Sonny Dykes, Cal
7. Mike MacIntyre, Colorado: the two new head coaches in the Pac-12 are facing similar expectations
and will have relatively comparable timetables for winning. I think Dykes is
facing slightly heavier expectations only because there’s more top end talent
in Berkeley to work with and the University just finished a massive renovation
on Memorial Stadium and built a lot of other facilities so Dykes will face some
pressure to win quickly.
MacIntyre faces hardly any immediate
pressure at all as he inherits a roster mostly devoid of top talent and will
have no expectations to win right away. Colorado recently ousted AD Mike Bohn
and I think the new administration will be willing to let things play out with
MacIntyre for at least a few years while the University tries to upgrade
facilities and resources to make Coach Mac’s job a little easier.
8. Todd Graham, Arizona State
9. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
10. Jim Mora Jr., UCLA: I’m grouping the other three second year guys into one consortium because
they are all basically in the same boat. All three coaches delivered immediate
results and big time improvements over their predecessors in year one and all
three schools have every reason to believe they’ll be getting more of the same
in year two. UCLA and ASU are loaded with talent and expect to contend for the
Pac-12 South. Even if UCLA and/or ASU regress slightly and fail to reach their
goals I think both coaches will remain where they are for several more years as
long as Todd Graham doesn’t have any family in Los Angeles or Seattle.
Arizona is in a slightly different
situation given the defense and uncertainty at quarterback but I think last year’s
defensive struggles were mostly due to players trying to grasp the 3-3-5 on the
fly after being recruiting to play a 4-3 for Mike Stoops. Jeff Casteel has a
proven track record as a defensive coordinator and I think he’ll start to
deliver results on defense next year. Also, given Rich Rod’s track record with
breaking in young QB’s and getting immediate production from them (see White,
Patrick and Robinson, Denard) I think Arizona’s offense will be just fine no
matter who ends up taking snaps.
11. Mike Riley, Oregon State: It amazes me that still to this day some Oregon State fans want
to oust Riley. All he ever does is win despite having the fewest resources,
worst facilities, and least attractive town to advertise in the conference
outside of Wazzou. OSU simply won’t find another coach better than him and they
certainly won’t find one as committed to the University. Riley turned down an
opportunity to coach USC, arguably the best job in college football and his
alma mater not once, but twice. Things looked a little sketchy after an injury
plagued 3-9 campaign but OSU stuck with Riley as he has stuck with them. OSU
was rewarded for their faith with a 9-4 season and will likely be rewarded
again with another 8-10 win season in 2013.
12. David Shaw, Stanford: Free from the shadow of Jim Harbaugh, Shaw heads into the 2013 season as
the Pac-12 safest and perhaps most revered coach. Most fans dismissed his first
year because he won with Harbaugh’s players and specifically with Andrew Luck.
However, after continuing the success without Luck (and with a Freshman QB whom
Shaw recruited himself) and winning the Rose Bowl, something Harbaugh and Luck couldn’t
do, Shaw is completely safe and worry free heading into 2013. Now in his third
season, Shaw has a roster built mostly on players who never saw the field under
Harbaugh’s leadership. If Stanford contends for the national championship as I
expect them to, I think David Shaw could be fielding calls from the NFL just
like his predecessor.
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