Saturday, 16 November 2013

The Post That Takes Your Money: Week 12

Due to my post-Stanford stupor, I didn't get around to finishing the Pac-12 Journey this week. I completed a few but I didn't get around to Oregon State-Arizona State or Cal-Colorado so rather than post an incomplete bunch, I am posting none at all. As for my picks, I was 4-1 last week but had a couple bad beats against the spread and went 2-3 in the picks that really matter. However, after nailing UCLA -3 last night I'm feeling good heading into a big Saturday slate in the Pac-12

Arizona (-11) over Washington State

Too much Ka'Deem Carey and too much team speed from Arizona for Washington State to handle and seriously challenge in this game. The Wildcats have an athletic, ball hawking defense that will cause problems for Connor Halliday adn the Cougars' offense. Look for turnovers to loom very large once again for Wazzou.

The Pick: Arizona 38, Washington State 24

Oregon (-28) over Utah

Oregon is back at home following an embarrassing loss and looks ready and refocused after getting an extra two days off to prepare for this game. Utah on the other hand looks emotionally spent after a one point loss to Arizona State and is banged up again as QB Travis Wilson did not make the trip to Eugene due to a concussion. Former walk-on sophomore Adam Schulz will get his first career start and he has been less than inspiring completing 19/40 passes against Arizona and USC. So if your keeping track at home, you have a team that is mostly terrible outside its own state lines playing a struggling walk on at QB against a top five team in the loudest stadium in the conference and that top five team is angry and looking to make a statement to get back on track. Ducks roll, big.

The Pick: Oregon 52, Utah 17

Colorado (-1) over California

This game is sad, just so sad. Give me the Buffs and lets move on.

The Pick: Colorado 26, California 22

USC (+3.5) outright over Stanford

My upset special and no it's not just because I'm an Oregon fan and Stanford has to lose in order for Oregon to win the Pac-12, how dare you try to assail my character. I actually have legitimate reasons for taking the Trojans. Stanford can't possibly work themselves up as high emotionally as they did against Oregon and they are bound for some sort of let down after playing essentially a perfect game against the Ducks. USC has a great defensive front that can handle Stanford's power run game. The Trojans have surrendered more yards per carry than the Ducks this season but most of what they have allowed has come against spread offenses. Against conventional power running teams, the Trojans have been pretty much lights out.

I think USC plays out of its mind on defense in front of the first and probably only sellout of the season at the Coliseum and leads the way to a season defining victory.

The Pick: USC 23, Stanford 20

Arizona State (-14.5) over Oregon State

I'm sure it was nice for Oregon State to get last week off and take a break from how much they had been struggling but its not going to matter in Tempe. The Beavers offense clearly cannot succeed against defenses that can rush the passer without blitzing. That is Arizona State's primary M.O. as a defense as Will Sutton and Carl Bradford help forma  fierce front four and players like Alden Darby and Osahon Irabor form a lock down secondary. When the Sun Devils are on offense, I think Marion Grice will put up huge numbers. The Beavers have been okay on defense in the past month or so but were really exposed on the ground against USC two weeks ago.

The Pick: Arizona State 41, Oregon State 17

Last Week Against the Spread:  2-3

Last Week Straight Up: 4-1

This Season Against the Spread: 41-37 (includes Friday)

This Season Straight up: 62-16

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