About Last Night:
Arizona 35, Northern Arizona 0. There was little reason to watch this game other than to see if Ka'Deem Carey could challenge his output from last year's Colorado game against the helpless Lumberjacks. That anticipation was removed entirely though when Rich Rodriguez announced shortly before kickoff that Carey would be suspended (but on the sideline and in uniform) for the NAU game. Rodriguez cited the always vague "team rules" but it's not hard to deduct that this is Carey's punishment for a wayward offseason that saw him land in court a couple times.
As for what happened once the game started, it certainly wasn't a surprise how it unfolded although it went a little differently than I thought it would. I was a little surprised that Rodriguez had apparently made B.J. Denker the man without question. Denker played most of the game and was lifted in the 4th quarter once the game was in hand. He was the only one to attempt the pass and was not pushed at all by Jesse Scroggins or Javelle Allen while the game was in doubt. the game plan was very conservative and watered down. The offense consisted mostly of basic run plays and quick passes run at a much slower tempo as Arizona only ran 47 plays.
I admit I didn't see the whole game but while I was watching I never saw a Denker pass travel more than 10 yards through the air. Denker finished 9/13 for 83 yards and one touchdown and also picked up 71 yards and another score on the ground. Denker and the offense started out hot and scored a 75 yard touchdown drive to begin the game but quickly petered out with a turnover on downs followed by consecutive three and outs. the 'Cats got a big play on its fourth drive as Daniel Jenkins took a handoff and showed great explosion through the hole and took advantage of some bad angles by the NAU defense and ran 91 yards for a touchdown. I wouldn't get too carried away on Jenkins' night though. He only ran for 48 yards on his other 11 carries and the 91 yard was mostly created by poor defense. I wouldn't count on him replicating that run again this season or stealing any snaps from Carey once he's reinserted into the lineup.
The most interesting part of a pretty nondescript night for Arizona's offense was what happened after Denker was lifted in the 4th quarter. Rather than Scroggins, it was the redshirt freshman Allen who replaced Denker. Allen didn't get to attempt a pass but showed off his impressive wheels with a 61 yard touchdown run. I think Scroggins being no higher than third on the depth chart is mostly due to him missing most of the offseason program with various injuries and his conditioning and comfort level with the offense not being there as a result. I can still see him making a run at playing time later in the year if he can get his body right.
As for the defense, it looked more than fine holding NAU to 3.6 yards per play, 4 of 19 on third down conversions and forcing three turnovers in a shutout. I wouldn't put too much stock in the performance as NAU did not have the players to exploit the Wildcats' glaring weakness up front. I did like the speed that Arizona played with and I think they will be able to match up well with teams in their division like UCLA and Arizona St. that like to move the ball horizontally. Although even those teams will be able to exploit Zona up front. Arizona's competition improves slightly but not much next week as the Wildcats go on the road to face generally hapless UNLV.
About Today:
Nicholls State at Oregon, 1:00 PM on Fox Sports 1. Line: Oregon (-59)
Welcome to the biggest mismatch in college football this season and the one game you absolutely do not need to watch. You know all about Oregon by now: ranked third in the country, loaded with talent, new head coach but same assistant staff, loudest stadium in the conference, Heisman candidates, All-Pac-12 selections, and future draft picks galore. What you probably don't know is anything about the Ducks' victim this afternoon, the Nicholls State Colonels. The Colonels are an FCS level team and one of the worst ones at that. This team has won a grand total of two games in the last two seasons and both came against Evangel College. Don't recognize Evangel as a college football power? You shouldn't because it isn't even in the NCAA. It's an NAIA school made entirely of walk-ons who couldn't even make it in NCAA Division III.
All the Ducks have to do is make sure all the players arrive at the stadium safely and they win a blowout. One of Nicholls' games last year was a 77-3 beatdown against Oregon St. when the Beavers honestly spent the last 40 minutes of the game doing everything they could not to score and finding the endzone anyway. I think it's pretty telling that I stared at this line for about five minutes and ultimately decided it was at least 10 points too low. Oregon has it's starters comfortably on the bench in the 2nd quarter of an 80-0 rout.
Eastern Washington at Oregon State, 3:00 PM on Pac-12 Network. Line: Oregon State (-27)
The Oregon schools are both playing FCS opponents today but Nicholls and EWU may as well be from different planets. the Eagles are a perennial top 10 team at the FCS level and won the national championship in 2010. Perhaps more importantly for the purpose of this game, the Eagles have a track record of giving Pac-12 teams fits having lost by just four at Wazzou last season and by three to Washington in Seattle in 2011. In light of reigning Big 12 champ Kansas State losing to FCS powerhouse North Dakota State last night, the Beavers cannot take this game lightly.
I'm urgently waiting to see how the snaps break down with the quarterbacks. We know Sean Mannion will start but how much time will Cody Vaz see and will the design of the offense look any different from one QB to the other? I also want to see how OSU's offensive line will hold up. That unit was embarrassed by Texas in the Alamo Bowl last time we saw them and they have had four projected starters miss practice time this week including their best lineman, center Isaac Seumalo who is not expected to play.
Despite the banged up O-line and the inherent problems that come with playing two QBs I think Oregon State has the defensive strength and enough play making ability to win this one comfortably but I am expecting a backdoor cover from the Eagles. Oregon State 45, Eastern Washington 24.
Washington State at Auburn, 4:00 PM on ESPNU. Line: Auburn (-15)
This is a huge game for Wazzou and the Pac-12 as the Cougars, one of the Pac-12's worst from last year face one of the SEC's reigning worst Auburn down in SEC country. With both teams being in relatively the same place within its respective conference pecking orders this could be a big moment for not only Wazzou but the Pac-12 as a whole. That being said, I don't envision much happiness for Cougars fans tonight. Auburn fell off becasue of bad coaching and player development however, with the patron saint of Auburn's 2010 national title team Gus Malzahn coming in to run the show, the Tigers should be much improved. Malzahn inherits a rough situation from Gene Chizik and previous offensive coordinator Scott Loeffler but he also takes over a roster stocked with former four and five star recruits. Chizik was a poor gameday coach but you can't deny his credentials as a recruiter and he left a lot behind for Malzahn to work with.
This Auburn team reminds me of the one Malzahn walked into as OC back in 2009. He took over an offense that finished 104th in the nation in total offense the previous year and had Chris Todd as his QB who looked like one of the least talented QBs to ever play in the SEC. Well, with that tire fire of an offense, Malzahn manged to get Auburn all the way to 16th in total offense and darn near beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa to block the Tide from playing for a national title. Auburn finished 118th in total offense last year and I don't know if the turn around will be as drastic as it was in 2009 but it will be a lot better and that spells doom for the Cougars.
I want to see Wazzou's defense and how it reacts to Malzahn's charges. The Cougars were queitly one of the best defenses on the West Coast in the second half of last season and I'm curious to see how much of that momentum they can hold over to this year. I think Wazzou can get a few stops and some quality drives to stay in this one but I expect the overall talent and the crowd in Auburn to be a little too much as the Tigers pull away late and cover the spread 48-28.
Nevada at UCLA, 7:00 PM on Pac-12 Network. Line: UCLA (-21)
The line on this game fascinates me. Vegas seems to be down on the Bruins for the season judging by the 6.5 over/under it was given but it seems to be getting a lot of respect in this game as 21 points seems like a lot against a decent team. That being said UCLA is an overwhelming favorite for a reason and while its situation isn't quite as dire as Utah's, UCLA does need to win this game and win impressively if it is going to end up going where it wants to go.
On the field, We all know about QB Brett Hundley who is one of the best around and that UCLA's O-line should be much improved after playing multiple freshmen last year and still doing pretty well anyway. I'm going to have my eyes locked on UCLA's skill position players. The Bruins searched all season last year to find a go to target in the passing game and no one developed. The two guys to keep an eye on are a pair of former five star recruits, Shaq Evans and Devin Fuller. Evans had an up and down year last season in his first year with the Bruins after transferring from Notre Dame. UCLA was hopeful he would deliver on his promising potential immediately but it didn't totally pan out. UCLA media types observing practice all off season have been saying impressive things about Evans and it's reasonable to think he could have a great season. As for Fuller, he played a bevy of different positions last year and showed a lot of ability. From the sound of things, UCLA is going to begin developing Fuller strictly as a wide receiver. Both coaches and media have said Fuller played great all spring and summer and both parties have labeled him as the breakout player in this offense.
At running back, UCLA needs to replace a 1700 yard rusher in Johnathan Franklin but honestly I'm not concerned about it. Seniors Damien Thigpen and Malcolm Jones have waited a long time to be focal points in the offense and I think both will excel. UCLA's big physical offensive line will help a lot and Hundley's abilities as a runner and play action passer will prevent teams from attacking the running back with multiple defenders. If Thigpen or Jones can't get it done, the Bruins are stocked with other talented former high end recruits who could get a shot so I'm not worried about the Bruins at tailback.
In this game, although I think the line is a little high at first glance and I do think Nevada is a solid team, I just happen to think UCLA is a very good team that wants to make a big statement to open the season. Hundley plays at his best and the defense dominates in a 42-17 Bruin victory.
Boise State at Washington, 7:00 PM on Fox Sports 1. Line: Washington (-4)
Washington opens its beautifully renovated stadium tonight with a huge game that could go a long way toward defining the Huskies season and how good they can be. After struggling with his confidence and by his own admission, his faith in his teammates last year, QB Keith Price needs to start well and establish good chemistry with his receivers. Unfortunately for him, he won't have his full compliment of weapons available as the Seattle Times reported late Thursday night that star TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins would be suspended for this game.
I'm happy to see this situation finally come to an end and for some sanity to be brought to this fiasco. It's a good thing that Seferian-Jenkins was levied with a punishment that fit the crime and now both he and the Huskies can move on and focus on football. Furthermore, I would love to know if this was coach Steve Sarkisian's call or if the university itself had to step in.
I was going to take Boise State in this game anyway but now that the Huskies are without its most talented player, I'm 100% behind the Broncos. The Broncos have a veteran QB in Joe Southwick who is an accurate passer and won't be rattled by the UW crowd. BSU is also stronger on both lines and has a huge advantage on the sidelines with one of CFB's best coaches in Chris Petersen. I like Boise to win outright 31-24.
Northwestern at Cal, 7:30 PM on ESPN2. Line: Northwestern (-6)
In my mind, no team in the conference holds more intrigue at season's start than the Golden Bears. The change from Jeff Tedford to Sonny Dykes is such a radical overhaul of Cal's culture and what it wants to do on the field; I am just fascinated to see how it all plays out. The Bears will change from a very detail oriented, pro style system to the wide open Air Raid offense that Cal has nicknamed the "Bear Raid" (which is awesome by the way). Most of the players on this roster were not recruited to play this system so I'm interested to see how these players find their roles.
There is also change abound on defense as the Bears are switching from a 3-4 alignment to a 4-3 in hopes of better attacking the line of scrimmage and playing more physically. Dykes has raved about the level of buy in to the new culture and playbook from his players on both sides of the ball so I think Cal will play pretty well right off the hop.
I think Cal has a great shot to beat a ranked team and a make a statement here. A big ten team hasn't beaten a Pac-12 foe on the road since 2007. All totalled, the Big Ten is 5-20 on the west coast against the Pac-12 in the regular season since 2000. I think Cal has big athletes on both lines who can control this game and is loaded with star talent that will make enough big plays to win this one outright, 35-30.
Record against the spread this season: 1-2
Record straight up this season: 3-0
Athletes in Space is named after ESPN/ABC's Kirk Herbstreit and his favorite saying that has spawned many drinking games. It is the most spectacularly mediocre Pac-12 Football and Men's Basketball blog on the internet and is filled with all the player analysis, game breakdowns, predictions, gambling advice, and news your pretty brain can handle. Owned and operated by Cam Stuerle, a lifelong Oregon fan, non-partisan writer, and an exiled college football lover living in Kelowna, BC, Canada.
Saturday, 31 August 2013
Friday, 30 August 2013
The Roundup: August 30
About Last Night:
Utah 30, Utah State 26. This was a huge win for Utah. the bottom line for the Utes is that this was one of only a handful of games that it would be favored to win so they absolutely had to have it. What bodes even better for them is that they showed tremendous heart and character by overcoming a two possession deficit in the second half to beat a very talented team. Utah has some things to clean up defensively but they performed well in key situations like third down and in the red zone and that helped keep the Utes in the game while the offense was struggling to find its groove.
As for the offense, I was very impressed with Travis Wilson and the growth he seems to have undergone over the offseason. His strong arm was on full display as he threw for 302 yards on just 17 completions with no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism by scrambling for a key first down on Utah's game winning drive in the fourth quarter. There are a few concerns for Utah to address on offense as well. Starting receiver Kenneth Scott reportedly suffered a broken leg and will be out for the season and the Utes struggled to find an effective tailback. James Poole, Karl Williams, and Kelvin York all played significant snaps and got their chances to carry the ball (12, 12, and 10 carries respectively) but none averaged better than four yards per carry. Utah needs to find a reliable tailback who can keep them ahead of the chains and allow Brain Johnson and Dennis Erickson to call safe and conservative plays on early downs to set up shots down field later in drives. If Utah can develop a strong running game to help set up play action for Wilson to throw deep with his cannon arm, they just might score enough points to reach six wins after all.
USC 30, Hawai'i 13. This game was truly awful and I feel bad for anyone else who stayed up to watch the whole thing. USC is certainly no closer to knowing its starting QB after both Cody Kessler and Max Wittek were wholly underwhelming in one half of play each. Kessler went 10/19 for 95 yards with a touchdown and a pick while Wittek completed 5/10 for 77 yards. I would say Wittek looked slightly better as he led three scoring drives to Kessler's two and his numbers were victimized by a par of dropped passes on deep balls by Marqise Lee. Also, Kessler's interception was horrendous as he threw off his back foot with plenty of air space between him and the nearest pass rusher and threw wide and short of his target by about five yards in either direction, straight into the hands of the defender. Neither Wittek or Kessler looked particularly good last night but it's important to remember that while neither guy will be as good as Matt Barkley (at least not this season) whomever becomes the permanent QB will be better than last night.
Of course the Trojans' quarterback won't be able to look much better and if he can't stay upright. USC's offensive line looked downright porous last night, exposing the biggest concern on USC's roster. The major issue with the Trojans line is that they weren't letting guys through because they were struggling to communicate or because there was a lack of chemistry amongst their main five, it was because they collectively got straight up beat. I don't want to take anything away from Hawai'i's players but none of those guys would survive in the Pac-12. If USC's line is getting physically and athletically out manned by Hawai'i, how the heck are they supposed to hold up against Arizona State, Stanford, or UCLA and their future NFL D-lines? if USC replicates that performance again against any other opponent on the schedule aside from Washignton State, Boston College, or Colorado, they will lose. To make matters worse, due to scholarship sanctions and a few misses in recruiting, what you saw last night is basically all the Trojans have. If USC's starting five can't get it figured out, then this team is done because no one else is walking off the bench to save them.
The defense did look markedly improved as the Trojans defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage led by Devon Kennard who has finally found a home in Clancy Pendergast's system. Kennard started out as a middle linebacker (which made no sense at the time and looks even stupider now), moved to defensive end and struggled there too, but now looks like he's finally ready to flourish at outside linebacker. Kennard was all over the field and had two of USC's seven sacks. Hayes Pullard also looked really good as he seemed reinvigorated by the new system. he had a really nice freshman season in 2011 but drastically regressed last year. he definitely looked solid as did Dion Bailey who has found a nice fit at safety along with star freshman Su'a Cravens and Josh Shaw. Corner is a huge concern as Hawai'i's receivers seemed to be getting free down the sidelines all night only Hawai'i QB Taylor Graham was not good enough to deliver the ball. Graham finished 16/41 which is great for USC's defense since they haven't forced an opponent into a stat line like that for years but they also shouldn't let it go to their head. All four of USC's interceptions were unforced errors as three of them were under thrown balls straight to defenders and the other was tipped off the hands of a receiver.
At the very least, USC's defense played competently and finally showed an ability to put its talented players in the right positions to succeed which they haven't done in four years. However, the Trojans need to shore up their cornerback play because unlike Graham, most of the passers they'll see in conference play will be able to deliver the ball to wide open receivers.
About Tonight:
Northern Arizona at Arizona, 7:00 PM on Pac-12 Network. Line: Arizona (-31)
The Wildacts kickoff their season with a nice easy patsy to help break in all their new bodies on offense. I think BJ Denker will ultimately be the man at QB for Arizona but it'll be interesting to see how much play Jesse Scroggins, and/or Khari McGee, and/or Javelle Allen and/or Anu Solomon get and whether any of those men can mount a serious charge at Denker. I also want to see who steps up in Arizona's receiving core. 1200 yard man Austin Hill is out for the year with a knee injury and the 'Cats need someone else to step up and become a go to guy to help their new QB along. Given the new QB and the questions at WR, expect plenty of carries for Ka'Deem Carey tonight and throughout the year as he looks to lead the nation in rushing yards once again.
I'm also looking to see some improvement form Arizona's defense. They still won't be very good because they are woefully undersized but they should at least know what they are doing given that it's their second year in Jeff Casteel's 3-3-5 system. I don't know much about Northern Arizona other than its an FCS school without much talent but given the turnover on Arizona's offense and its defense being just bad enough to allow a few scoring drives against anyone, I'll take the points and say Wildcats 52, Lumberjacks 24.
Record against the spread: 1-1
Record straight up: 2-0
Utah 30, Utah State 26. This was a huge win for Utah. the bottom line for the Utes is that this was one of only a handful of games that it would be favored to win so they absolutely had to have it. What bodes even better for them is that they showed tremendous heart and character by overcoming a two possession deficit in the second half to beat a very talented team. Utah has some things to clean up defensively but they performed well in key situations like third down and in the red zone and that helped keep the Utes in the game while the offense was struggling to find its groove.
As for the offense, I was very impressed with Travis Wilson and the growth he seems to have undergone over the offseason. His strong arm was on full display as he threw for 302 yards on just 17 completions with no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism by scrambling for a key first down on Utah's game winning drive in the fourth quarter. There are a few concerns for Utah to address on offense as well. Starting receiver Kenneth Scott reportedly suffered a broken leg and will be out for the season and the Utes struggled to find an effective tailback. James Poole, Karl Williams, and Kelvin York all played significant snaps and got their chances to carry the ball (12, 12, and 10 carries respectively) but none averaged better than four yards per carry. Utah needs to find a reliable tailback who can keep them ahead of the chains and allow Brain Johnson and Dennis Erickson to call safe and conservative plays on early downs to set up shots down field later in drives. If Utah can develop a strong running game to help set up play action for Wilson to throw deep with his cannon arm, they just might score enough points to reach six wins after all.
USC 30, Hawai'i 13. This game was truly awful and I feel bad for anyone else who stayed up to watch the whole thing. USC is certainly no closer to knowing its starting QB after both Cody Kessler and Max Wittek were wholly underwhelming in one half of play each. Kessler went 10/19 for 95 yards with a touchdown and a pick while Wittek completed 5/10 for 77 yards. I would say Wittek looked slightly better as he led three scoring drives to Kessler's two and his numbers were victimized by a par of dropped passes on deep balls by Marqise Lee. Also, Kessler's interception was horrendous as he threw off his back foot with plenty of air space between him and the nearest pass rusher and threw wide and short of his target by about five yards in either direction, straight into the hands of the defender. Neither Wittek or Kessler looked particularly good last night but it's important to remember that while neither guy will be as good as Matt Barkley (at least not this season) whomever becomes the permanent QB will be better than last night.
Of course the Trojans' quarterback won't be able to look much better and if he can't stay upright. USC's offensive line looked downright porous last night, exposing the biggest concern on USC's roster. The major issue with the Trojans line is that they weren't letting guys through because they were struggling to communicate or because there was a lack of chemistry amongst their main five, it was because they collectively got straight up beat. I don't want to take anything away from Hawai'i's players but none of those guys would survive in the Pac-12. If USC's line is getting physically and athletically out manned by Hawai'i, how the heck are they supposed to hold up against Arizona State, Stanford, or UCLA and their future NFL D-lines? if USC replicates that performance again against any other opponent on the schedule aside from Washignton State, Boston College, or Colorado, they will lose. To make matters worse, due to scholarship sanctions and a few misses in recruiting, what you saw last night is basically all the Trojans have. If USC's starting five can't get it figured out, then this team is done because no one else is walking off the bench to save them.
The defense did look markedly improved as the Trojans defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage led by Devon Kennard who has finally found a home in Clancy Pendergast's system. Kennard started out as a middle linebacker (which made no sense at the time and looks even stupider now), moved to defensive end and struggled there too, but now looks like he's finally ready to flourish at outside linebacker. Kennard was all over the field and had two of USC's seven sacks. Hayes Pullard also looked really good as he seemed reinvigorated by the new system. he had a really nice freshman season in 2011 but drastically regressed last year. he definitely looked solid as did Dion Bailey who has found a nice fit at safety along with star freshman Su'a Cravens and Josh Shaw. Corner is a huge concern as Hawai'i's receivers seemed to be getting free down the sidelines all night only Hawai'i QB Taylor Graham was not good enough to deliver the ball. Graham finished 16/41 which is great for USC's defense since they haven't forced an opponent into a stat line like that for years but they also shouldn't let it go to their head. All four of USC's interceptions were unforced errors as three of them were under thrown balls straight to defenders and the other was tipped off the hands of a receiver.
At the very least, USC's defense played competently and finally showed an ability to put its talented players in the right positions to succeed which they haven't done in four years. However, the Trojans need to shore up their cornerback play because unlike Graham, most of the passers they'll see in conference play will be able to deliver the ball to wide open receivers.
About Tonight:
Northern Arizona at Arizona, 7:00 PM on Pac-12 Network. Line: Arizona (-31)
The Wildacts kickoff their season with a nice easy patsy to help break in all their new bodies on offense. I think BJ Denker will ultimately be the man at QB for Arizona but it'll be interesting to see how much play Jesse Scroggins, and/or Khari McGee, and/or Javelle Allen and/or Anu Solomon get and whether any of those men can mount a serious charge at Denker. I also want to see who steps up in Arizona's receiving core. 1200 yard man Austin Hill is out for the year with a knee injury and the 'Cats need someone else to step up and become a go to guy to help their new QB along. Given the new QB and the questions at WR, expect plenty of carries for Ka'Deem Carey tonight and throughout the year as he looks to lead the nation in rushing yards once again.
I'm also looking to see some improvement form Arizona's defense. They still won't be very good because they are woefully undersized but they should at least know what they are doing given that it's their second year in Jeff Casteel's 3-3-5 system. I don't know much about Northern Arizona other than its an FCS school without much talent but given the turnover on Arizona's offense and its defense being just bad enough to allow a few scoring drives against anyone, I'll take the points and say Wildcats 52, Lumberjacks 24.
Record against the spread: 1-1
Record straight up: 2-0
Thursday, 29 August 2013
The Roundup: August 29
There are two Pac-12 teams in action tonight to help kickoff the Pac-12 season. To help you be better prepared to watch these games and all Pac-12 games this season I'm going to be doing mini previews with something to watch for, a pick against the spread and the reason behind that pick. I pick games against the spread because I'm a real man but I will also be keeping track of my record straight up solely for the purpose of comparing the two at the end of the year. Without further ado, here is what to watch for tonight:
Utah State at Utah, 5:00 PM on Fox Sports 1. Line: Utah (-3)
I'm very interested to watch the function of Utah's offense. The Utes hired longtime former coach Dennis Erickson as a co-offensive coordinator to come in and help current offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. How are play calls going to be relayed? How will these two work together? what is the play book going to look like? How much work is Erickson doing to teach the Utah players? Who will be in the booth and who will be on the sidelines? Will they be together during the game? It's going to be fascinating to watch all season how Utah's offense comes together with two different coordinators who are polar opposites from each other.
Utah State is a very strong team with 15 returning starters including star QB Chuckie Keeton. However, the Aggies lost coach Gary Andersen to Wisconsin and face some uncertainty of their own despite a very good roster. In light of Utah losing to Utah State for the first time in nine years last season and the fact that Utah must win this game in order to get to six wins, I'll take the Utes to win a close and cover, 28-24.
USC at Hawai'i, 8:00 PM on CBS Sports Network. Line: USC (-24)
The thing to watch for is obvious and that is USC's quarterbacks. Between Cody Kessler and Max Wittek, who gets the start, who ends up playing the most snaps, and most importantly who plays the best is what matters for the Trojans tonight. Hawai'i head coach Norm Chow is a former USC assistant and it is well documented that he and USC coach Lane Kiffin detest each other from their time as assistants under Pete Carroll. I expect Kiffin to go all out and try to rub it in against Chow and run up the score. It shouldn't be too hard, as Hawai'i is coming off a 3-9 season and just fired its offensive coordinator on the first day of Fall Camp which is always a good sign. I'm taking USC in a big time blowout, 49-17.
Utah State at Utah, 5:00 PM on Fox Sports 1. Line: Utah (-3)
I'm very interested to watch the function of Utah's offense. The Utes hired longtime former coach Dennis Erickson as a co-offensive coordinator to come in and help current offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. How are play calls going to be relayed? How will these two work together? what is the play book going to look like? How much work is Erickson doing to teach the Utah players? Who will be in the booth and who will be on the sidelines? Will they be together during the game? It's going to be fascinating to watch all season how Utah's offense comes together with two different coordinators who are polar opposites from each other.
Utah State is a very strong team with 15 returning starters including star QB Chuckie Keeton. However, the Aggies lost coach Gary Andersen to Wisconsin and face some uncertainty of their own despite a very good roster. In light of Utah losing to Utah State for the first time in nine years last season and the fact that Utah must win this game in order to get to six wins, I'll take the Utes to win a close and cover, 28-24.
USC at Hawai'i, 8:00 PM on CBS Sports Network. Line: USC (-24)
The thing to watch for is obvious and that is USC's quarterbacks. Between Cody Kessler and Max Wittek, who gets the start, who ends up playing the most snaps, and most importantly who plays the best is what matters for the Trojans tonight. Hawai'i head coach Norm Chow is a former USC assistant and it is well documented that he and USC coach Lane Kiffin detest each other from their time as assistants under Pete Carroll. I expect Kiffin to go all out and try to rub it in against Chow and run up the score. It shouldn't be too hard, as Hawai'i is coming off a 3-9 season and just fired its offensive coordinator on the first day of Fall Camp which is always a good sign. I'm taking USC in a big time blowout, 49-17.
Prediction Time: 2013
The college football season kicks off in about four hours, you may have heard which means it is time for me to lay out exactly what is going to happen in the Pac-12 this season. Here is everything that will happen in the Pac-12 this season from order of finish, to which teams go to which bowl, to the all-conference team, to who ultimately wins the Pac-12. Feel free to bookmark this article so you can throw it in my face at the end of the season.
Final Standings:
North:
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Cal
6. Washington State
South:
1. UCLA
2. Arizona State
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. Utah
6. Colorado
Pac-12 title game: Oregon over UCLA
Bowl Games:
National Championship: Oregon
Rose: Stanford
Alamo: UCLA
Holiday: Oregon State
Sun: Arizona State
Las Vegas: USC
Fight Hunger: Arizona
New Mexico: Washington
Cal, Utah, Washington State, and Colorado do not qualify for bowls
Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year: Marcus Mariota, Oregon
Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Barr, UCLA
Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year: Jared Goff, Cal
Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year: Su'a Cravens, USC
Pac-12 Coach of the Year: Jim L. Mora, UCLA
The All-Pac-12 team (note this is a projection not entirely based on previous performance)
Offense:
QB: Marcus Mariota, So., Oregon
RB: Ka'Deem Carey, Jr., Arizona
RB: Marion Grice, Sr., Arizona State
WR: Marqise Lee, Jr., USC
WR: Brandin Cooks, Jr., Oregon State
TE: Colt Lyerla, Jr., Oregon
OL: Andrus Peat, So., Stanford
OL: David Yankey, Sr., Stanford
OL: Hroniss Grassu, Jr., Oregon
OL: Xavier Su'a-Filo, Jr., UCLA
OL: Jeremiah Poutasi, So., Utah
Defense:
DL: Will Sutton, Sr., Arizona State
DL: Scott Crichton, Jr., Oregon State
DL: Arik Armstead, So., Oregon
DL: Leonard Williams, So., USC
LB: Anthony Barr, Sr., UCLA
LB: Trent Murphy, Sr. Stanford
LB: Shayne Skov, Sr., Stanford
DB: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Jr., Oregon
DB: Ed Reynolds, Sr., Stanford
DB: Deone Bucannon, Sr. Washington State
DB: Su'a Cravens, Fr., USC
Specialists:
PK: Trevor Romaine, Jr., Oregon State
P: Darragh O'Neill, Jr., Colorado
RS: De'Anthony Thomas, Jr., Oregon
Final Standings:
North:
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Cal
6. Washington State
South:
1. UCLA
2. Arizona State
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. Utah
6. Colorado
Pac-12 title game: Oregon over UCLA
Bowl Games:
National Championship: Oregon
Rose: Stanford
Alamo: UCLA
Holiday: Oregon State
Sun: Arizona State
Las Vegas: USC
Fight Hunger: Arizona
New Mexico: Washington
Cal, Utah, Washington State, and Colorado do not qualify for bowls
Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year: Marcus Mariota, Oregon
Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Barr, UCLA
Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year: Jared Goff, Cal
Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year: Su'a Cravens, USC
Pac-12 Coach of the Year: Jim L. Mora, UCLA
The All-Pac-12 team (note this is a projection not entirely based on previous performance)
Offense:
QB: Marcus Mariota, So., Oregon
RB: Ka'Deem Carey, Jr., Arizona
RB: Marion Grice, Sr., Arizona State
WR: Marqise Lee, Jr., USC
WR: Brandin Cooks, Jr., Oregon State
TE: Colt Lyerla, Jr., Oregon
OL: Andrus Peat, So., Stanford
OL: David Yankey, Sr., Stanford
OL: Hroniss Grassu, Jr., Oregon
OL: Xavier Su'a-Filo, Jr., UCLA
OL: Jeremiah Poutasi, So., Utah
Defense:
DL: Will Sutton, Sr., Arizona State
DL: Scott Crichton, Jr., Oregon State
DL: Arik Armstead, So., Oregon
DL: Leonard Williams, So., USC
LB: Anthony Barr, Sr., UCLA
LB: Trent Murphy, Sr. Stanford
LB: Shayne Skov, Sr., Stanford
DB: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Jr., Oregon
DB: Ed Reynolds, Sr., Stanford
DB: Deone Bucannon, Sr. Washington State
DB: Su'a Cravens, Fr., USC
Specialists:
PK: Trevor Romaine, Jr., Oregon State
P: Darragh O'Neill, Jr., Colorado
RS: De'Anthony Thomas, Jr., Oregon
Wednesday, 28 August 2013
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 1 Marqise Lee
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| Stephen Dunn/Getty Images |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
6. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
5. RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
4. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA
3. DL Will Sutton, Arizona State
2. QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
Lee was certainly an elite recruit. He wasn't labelled as a five-star kid with every single school after him but he was a unanimous four star prospect who had no problem gaining scholarship offers. Lee's problem while he was finishing high school was that when recruiters from schools looked at him, they saw a safety. That is every school except one, Oregon. the Ducks looked at Lee as a wide receiver the entire time and their willingness to put Lee at his favorite position made them the front runner to land the coveted athlete. Lee reportedly almost pulled the trigger on an Oregon commitment a few times but decided to wait it out. With about a week to go before signing day, Lee's beloved childhood team USC changed its tune and promised Lee he would play wide receiver and not get stuck on defense. That was all Lee needed to hear as he committed to the Trojans and signed on the dotted line.
Few people, probably not even the USC coaches, were ready for what Lee did next. Lee needed some time to get going as he had just 13 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns through his first four career games. A 144 yard breakout performance against Arizona announced to the conference that he was a player to be reckoned with but, Lee had a relative no-show against Notre Dame sandwiched in between solid efforts versus Cal and Stanford as his freshman season rolled on. Lee was playing pretty well compared to the standards of most freshman wideouts as he had accumulated 534 yards and five touchdowns through eight career games. Those numbers were fine since sophomore Robert Woods was the returning All-American and the one destined for stardom on Sundays. Lee was developing, a mere complimentary piece in USC's offense and the guy who was supposed to be a safety.
Then in an instant, Marqise Lee became a superstar. Lee caught nine pass for 124 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado, nine catches for 74 yards and a score against Washington, eight catches for 187 and a score against Oregon and 13 receptions for 224 yards and two TDs against UCLA to wrap up the Trojans final four games. Lee finished with 73 receptions for 1143 yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman and was named Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and a 2nd team All-Pac-12 selection. Woods was named a 1st team pick but it seemed at the end of the year that the younger Lee had caught up to him and it would be Lee who would be the centerpiece of the offense in 2012.
That immediately came to fruition last year as Lee lead the nation with 118 receptions for 1721 yards (second in CFB), and 14 touchdowns (third). He was named a consensus 1st-team All-American, the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, and won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best wide receiver. Lee was held under 100 yards in just five of USC's 13 games and amazingly, managed to reach the endzone in all but four games. At one point last year, Lee had at least 94 yards and a score in eight out of nine games, highlighted by a school record 345 yards against Arizona. Oh and by the way, he lead the Pac-12 in kickoff return yards (he's score twice on returns in his career) and averaged better than eight yards per carry in the run game.
Similar to my comments about Marcus Mariota from yesterday, I simply can't find a single hole in Lee's game. Watch at 0:21 and see how Lee plays like a running back. Contrary to popular belief, Lee isn't only about blazing speed and he does more than just catch deep balls. Lane Kiffin loves to use trick formations with Lee lined up as a running back or H-back. Lee catches a quick designed pass on this player and the defense reads it but look at Lee make a slight hesitation to break down the defender in space and then ran right past him to the left. That is the type of athleticism and field presence that few players possess. Of course, Lee is more than just a short game weapon, he truly is a the best deep threat in college football. On the play at 2:32 he scores his career-best 87 yard touchdown but the math on this play is incredible. Lee runs from the USC 13 yard line where the ball is snapped to Utah's 31 where he catches the ball in six seconds. That means he covered 66 yards in six seconds which equates to a 4.44 40 yard dash with pads on. You can also appreciate his strength as he plucks the ball out of the air and shakes the defender trying to make a play on the ball and then makes a beautiful jump cut/stop move to shake the last defender to reach the endzone. Seriously, is there another player in college football who can do that?
The Oregon portion of that film above is even more incredible considering that he was matched up with the best corner in college football Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Ekpre-Olomu couldn't cover Lee to save his life. I love Ekpre-Olomu but look at how Lee just abuses him at 5:14 and burns him for a ho-hum 85 yard touchdown. You can watch the rest of the clip just for the sake of marveling at Lee but I think you get the idea, this young man is absurd and there is no one else like him in college football and perhaps even in the pros.
As an Oregon fan it's been tough to watch Lee sometimes knowing he almost ended up in Eugene. The only thing the Ducks have been missing since 2010 is a dynamic number one receiver. With a playmaker like Lee in the offense, Oregon probably would have beaten Stanford last year and likely gone on to win the national title. In 2011, Oregon certainly would have beaten USC and who knows, maybe that would have been enough to get a rematch with LSU and win that national championship as well. The Ducks would certainly be the number one team and the overwhelming favorite to win a championship this year as well. Even though the Trojans lost almost as many games last year (six) as the Ducks have dropped in the last four (seven) I doubt Lee would go back and change his decision. He has been able to live at home and bring his family and friends to every game and at USC he has starred as the best in the country. We can all play the "what if" game as much as we want but we can't change the fact that Marqise Lee chose to attend USC or the fact that Lee is simply the best.
Tuesday, 27 August 2013
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 2 Marcus Mariota
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| Michael Arellano/Daily Emerald |
Here is a full rundown of the previous players on the countdown:
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
6. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
5. RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
4. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA
3. DL Will Sutton, Arizona State
When Mariota enrolled at Oregon in 2011, he wasn't projected to enter Oregon's lineup until this upcoming season. At the time, Darron Thomas had just led the Ducks to the national championship game as a sophomore and had two years of eligibility left. Thomas was never looked at as much of an NFL prospect so it seemed likely that Thomas would stay in Eugene and use both of his remaining years of eligibility. Thomas had a strong junior campaign in 2011 and led Oregon to its first Rose Bowl win in over 90 years. Shortly after the Rose Bowl, Thomas declared that he would stay for his senior year and help the Ducks pursue a national championship. But, suddenly Thomas changed his mind and decided to leave school after all and enter the NFL draft where he was not selected. Thomas' surprising departure was a blow to the Ducks who thought they were going to have their all-time winningest QB lead a veteran team in 2012, but the QBs surprising departure opened a door for young redshirt freshman Mariota.
However, it was a door that many did not think Mariota was going to walk through. Standing in his way was sophomore Bryan Bennett, who started one game and came off the bench to finish a few others while Thomas was hurt in 2011. With Bennett guiding the Ducks against Arizona State, Colorado, and Washington State, the Ducks looked better than ever. Thomas was not an especially great runner but Bennett was electric, opening up Oregon's zone read like never before. With Thomas taking off to pursue professional football, many expected Bennett to take over as the man in Eugene. After all, Bennett was a year older, had practical game experience, was a great runner, and had a very strong arm. Oregon's Spring Game rolled around and Mariota stepped up and vastly outperformed Bennett, flipping the QB competition on its head. Practices were closed to the media and the public throughout the summer so every day it was a guessing game as to who was in the lead. Then coach Chip Kelly made a few heads explode when he said that Mariota "learned the offense better in one year than Darron Thomas did in four." With that quote and Mariota's strong spring game, the public became convinced that Mariota was the man to lead the Ducks and low and behold, it was Mariota who was named the starter for the opener against Arkansas State.
And what a debut Mariota had once he was named the starter. He completed 18 of 22 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns (in about a quarter and a half) in his debut and led Oregon to touchdowns on his first nine drives as Oregon's pivot. By the end of the year, Mariota had a accumulated 2677 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with just six interceptions plus 752 yards and five more touchdowns rushing. Oh, and he also found time to score a receiving touchdown. Those numbers are impressive any way you look at them but, remember that Oregon blew so many teams out that Mariota didn't play the 4th quarter in over half of Oregon's games. Mariota threw for 2503 yards and 28 touchdowns in the first three quarters of games. But, Mariota only had 174 passing yards and four touchdowns in the fourth all season. If you adjust his fourth quarter numbers so they are merely on par with the other three quarters, he would have had 834 yards and nine touchdowns. That would put Mariota at 3337 yards and 37 touchdowns. Suddenly, he looks a little better doesn't he?
I'm sure you've figured out my little drill by now. I post a video and point out specific plays where Player X demonstrates a specific talent that makes him a superstar. In Mariota's case, there's just too much to point to. Watch the entire clip above and try to point out any flaws in his game. He has good presence and awareness in the pocket, he goes through his full progressio, never locking onto a receiver and never predetermining where to throw the ball (unless the play class for him to do so, i.e. a screen pass), he has laser-point accuaracy, he spreads the ball around to all his receivers, he's incredibly fast, he holds the ball properly and doesn't risk fumbles, he doesn't force dangerous passes, he has a great grasp of the offense and gets everyone lined up before the play, and he calls out protections and helps the offensive linemen do their job.
The one and only criticism I can come up with for Mariota is that while he does have a decently strong arm and throws a pretty good deep ball, he is not blessed with elite arm strength. But in Oregon's offense with most of the pass concepts running within 25 yards of the line of scrimmage, he doesn't need that. Furthermore, Mariota claims to have put on a lot of weight and muscle this offseason (he did look a lot thicker at Pac-12 Media Day than he did at the Fiesta Bowl) and that will undoubtedly allow him to throw the ball at least a little further.
All that ability and production was good enough for Mariota to be the coveted first team All-Pac-12 quarterback and the Pac-12 offensive player of the year in 2012. Quite frankly, you can have Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Tajh Boyd, or any other QB you want. I'm taking Mariota every time because he is the best quarterback in college football. There are many great QBs out there but none of them are blessed with the flawlessness that Mariota possesses. That above all else, is why Mariota could be heading to New York to accept the Heisman Trophy during his preparation for the national championship game.
Monday, 26 August 2013
An update on Pac-12 QB Races
With game week preparations underway at all 12 schools in the conference, the time has finally come for teams to name starting quarterbacks. Some teams never had quarterback competitions because they had established returning players at the position. There's no need to tell you who is the starting pivot at Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah, or Washington because those six schools aren't replacing a departed starter. The other half of the conference? Well those six schools have spent the spring and summer holding competitions between at least two and as many as five candidates.
Real game prep has started which means it's time those other six teams to disclose what they plan to do at the most important position.
Arizona - It is hard to get a read on this one because Rich Rodriguez has hinted that Arizona could play as many as three QBs in the opener and he has outright stated that he will not name a starter before the first game. B.J. Denker seems to be the favorite because he's a senior and was on the field with the Wildcats last year and even started one game when Matt Scott was injured. Jesse Scroggins, the former USC transfer is probably more talented but he missed the entire spring with an injury and then after finally getting healthy he suffered a setback and missed a large portion of fall camp. The third option is true freshman Anu Solomon who by all accounts is more talented than either Denker or Scroggins but of course, he just graduated high school two months ago.
I have always been of the opinion that naming a true freshman as your QB is the equivalent to punting on your season and announcing that you plan to take your lumps this year while building for the future. Unlike another team that I'll get to in a moment, Arizona has something to play for this year and has the talent at other positions to be a dark horse for the Pac-12 South crown. The decision at QB is going to be the difference between Arizona winning as few as six games and as many as nine. Fortunately for Arizona, They open the season with Northern Arizona, UNLV, and Texas-San Antonio which means they have three patsies that they could beat by bringing a QB out of the stands. I think this is a two man race between Denker and Scroggins and it will be decided on the field after week two and maybe even after week three.
California - Sonny Dykes' first QB in Berkely will be true freshman Jared Goff. Goff, a four-star recruit who enrolled in the spring, beat out redshirt freshman Zach Kline, the number two ranked QB in last year's class whom many people (myself included) had pegged as the favorite to win the job. The move to a true freshman makes sense for Cal. They are a rebuilding team and aren't competing for anything this season. the offensive talent around Goff is very young as well and it is ideal for Goff, Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, Darius Powe, et al to take their losses together this year and try to build positive momentum for next season and beyond.
Goff seems like the right guy to play for Dykes. He's a tall, spindly passer at 6'4" without much meat on him. His body type and throwing motion definitely compares him favorably to players like Nick Foles and Colby Cameron who have had success playing under Dykes. As for Kline, He's obviously a tremendous talent and he will represent value to other programs if he decides to transfer. I will say that I don't necessarily think this battle is over and we could see Kline make a comeback and win the job one way or another during the season similar to Kevin Hogan initially losing the job to Josh Nunes out of camp at Stanford last year and then supplanting him later in the year.
Colorado - Coach Mike MacIntyre announced today that the Buffs QB will be junior Connor Wood. Wood was a highly touted kid out of high school and originally went to Texas but transferred to CU after one season. Senior Jordan Webb, a former transfer from Kansas seemed like the favorite to win the job after starting nine games last year before a hand injury. However, Wood reportedly made great progress this season and really took off after attending the Manning Passing Academy. Wood is the only real blue chip talent on the Buffs roster so it makes sense for MacIntyre to roll the dice with the guy who possesses the higher ceiling.
Oregon State - This might be the closest QB race in the country and it might not be resolved before OSU's bowl game. Junior Sean Mannion and senior Cody Vaz are battling it out for the job and in a rare twist, both have proven to be quality starters in the past. Mannion and Vaz both started games last year and both were at one point benched in favor of the other man. Mannion threw for 2446 yards and 15 touchdowns in eight starts but added 13 interceptions. Vaz started five games and threw for 1480 yards and 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Vaz seemed to have the job on lock down following the regular season but necessitated an offseason competition after completed just 15 of 28 throws with two interceptions and 10 sacks in the Alamo Bowl against Texas.
Coach Mike Riley has confirmed that both QBs will play against Eastern Washington and he will decide a starter based on performance on the field. Given the veteran status and proven track record of both players, this job could still be up for grabs in November.
*Update: Mike Riley just named Mannion as the starter against Eastern Washington on Saturday. It'll likely be a blowout so Vaz should make an appearance in the 2nd half. I doubt this one is truly over.
USC - It was a three man race up until about two weeks ago when Lane Kiffin eliminated blue chip true freshman Max Browne from the competition. It's now a race between sophomores Max Wittek who started in Matt Barkley's stead at the end of last season (and looked mostly terrible) and Cody Kessler. Talent and upward potential seems to be a wash as both QBs were decorated recruits and have a lot of raw ability. Performance has been up and down for both guys as neither has been able to put together consecutive great scrimmages. Both passers are expected to play against Hawai'i on Thursday and a decision on a permanent starter might not be made until USC gets into the heart of it's conference schedule.
Washington State - This seems to be a phony competition. Coach Mike Leach has maintained that junior Connor Halliday must fight for his job and that he is not set in stone as the starter when the Cougars face Auburn in week one. By Leach's own admission though, freshman Austin Apodaca is the only player challenging Halliday and Leach has not seen enough from him so far to warrant the starting gig. Even though it hasn't been announced yet, you can surely expect Halliday to take every snap against Auburn and every other Wazzou opponent barring injury or exceptionally poor performance.
Real game prep has started which means it's time those other six teams to disclose what they plan to do at the most important position.
Arizona - It is hard to get a read on this one because Rich Rodriguez has hinted that Arizona could play as many as three QBs in the opener and he has outright stated that he will not name a starter before the first game. B.J. Denker seems to be the favorite because he's a senior and was on the field with the Wildcats last year and even started one game when Matt Scott was injured. Jesse Scroggins, the former USC transfer is probably more talented but he missed the entire spring with an injury and then after finally getting healthy he suffered a setback and missed a large portion of fall camp. The third option is true freshman Anu Solomon who by all accounts is more talented than either Denker or Scroggins but of course, he just graduated high school two months ago.
I have always been of the opinion that naming a true freshman as your QB is the equivalent to punting on your season and announcing that you plan to take your lumps this year while building for the future. Unlike another team that I'll get to in a moment, Arizona has something to play for this year and has the talent at other positions to be a dark horse for the Pac-12 South crown. The decision at QB is going to be the difference between Arizona winning as few as six games and as many as nine. Fortunately for Arizona, They open the season with Northern Arizona, UNLV, and Texas-San Antonio which means they have three patsies that they could beat by bringing a QB out of the stands. I think this is a two man race between Denker and Scroggins and it will be decided on the field after week two and maybe even after week three.
California - Sonny Dykes' first QB in Berkely will be true freshman Jared Goff. Goff, a four-star recruit who enrolled in the spring, beat out redshirt freshman Zach Kline, the number two ranked QB in last year's class whom many people (myself included) had pegged as the favorite to win the job. The move to a true freshman makes sense for Cal. They are a rebuilding team and aren't competing for anything this season. the offensive talent around Goff is very young as well and it is ideal for Goff, Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, Darius Powe, et al to take their losses together this year and try to build positive momentum for next season and beyond.
Goff seems like the right guy to play for Dykes. He's a tall, spindly passer at 6'4" without much meat on him. His body type and throwing motion definitely compares him favorably to players like Nick Foles and Colby Cameron who have had success playing under Dykes. As for Kline, He's obviously a tremendous talent and he will represent value to other programs if he decides to transfer. I will say that I don't necessarily think this battle is over and we could see Kline make a comeback and win the job one way or another during the season similar to Kevin Hogan initially losing the job to Josh Nunes out of camp at Stanford last year and then supplanting him later in the year.
Colorado - Coach Mike MacIntyre announced today that the Buffs QB will be junior Connor Wood. Wood was a highly touted kid out of high school and originally went to Texas but transferred to CU after one season. Senior Jordan Webb, a former transfer from Kansas seemed like the favorite to win the job after starting nine games last year before a hand injury. However, Wood reportedly made great progress this season and really took off after attending the Manning Passing Academy. Wood is the only real blue chip talent on the Buffs roster so it makes sense for MacIntyre to roll the dice with the guy who possesses the higher ceiling.
Oregon State - This might be the closest QB race in the country and it might not be resolved before OSU's bowl game. Junior Sean Mannion and senior Cody Vaz are battling it out for the job and in a rare twist, both have proven to be quality starters in the past. Mannion and Vaz both started games last year and both were at one point benched in favor of the other man. Mannion threw for 2446 yards and 15 touchdowns in eight starts but added 13 interceptions. Vaz started five games and threw for 1480 yards and 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Vaz seemed to have the job on lock down following the regular season but necessitated an offseason competition after completed just 15 of 28 throws with two interceptions and 10 sacks in the Alamo Bowl against Texas.
Coach Mike Riley has confirmed that both QBs will play against Eastern Washington and he will decide a starter based on performance on the field. Given the veteran status and proven track record of both players, this job could still be up for grabs in November.
*Update: Mike Riley just named Mannion as the starter against Eastern Washington on Saturday. It'll likely be a blowout so Vaz should make an appearance in the 2nd half. I doubt this one is truly over.
USC - It was a three man race up until about two weeks ago when Lane Kiffin eliminated blue chip true freshman Max Browne from the competition. It's now a race between sophomores Max Wittek who started in Matt Barkley's stead at the end of last season (and looked mostly terrible) and Cody Kessler. Talent and upward potential seems to be a wash as both QBs were decorated recruits and have a lot of raw ability. Performance has been up and down for both guys as neither has been able to put together consecutive great scrimmages. Both passers are expected to play against Hawai'i on Thursday and a decision on a permanent starter might not be made until USC gets into the heart of it's conference schedule.
Washington State - This seems to be a phony competition. Coach Mike Leach has maintained that junior Connor Halliday must fight for his job and that he is not set in stone as the starter when the Cougars face Auburn in week one. By Leach's own admission though, freshman Austin Apodaca is the only player challenging Halliday and Leach has not seen enough from him so far to warrant the starting gig. Even though it hasn't been announced yet, you can surely expect Halliday to take every snap against Auburn and every other Wazzou opponent barring injury or exceptionally poor performance.
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 3 Will Sutton
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| Christian Petersen/Getty Images |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
6. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
5. RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
4. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA
Sutton wasn't just under the radar before last season, he had been a ghost on the national scene since high school. Sutton was ranked 40th overall, in Arizona, as a recruit. Sutton chose to stay local with the Sun Devils who were one of only three schools from one of the "Power-Five" conferences to offer Sutton a scholarship. Sutton worked his way into the lineup as a true freshman and recorded 17 tackles and a sack in 10 games. The ASU coaches at the time seemed to like Sutton and were looking to get him more involved in the defense as a sophomore in 2010. However, an injury forced him to miss the entire 2010 season and take a medical redshirt. He returned to the field in 2011 and recorded 33 tackles and made a few starts as he started to look like a quality Pac-12 defensive lineman. Through three years in the program, Sutton was a good, not great player who was performing right on par with what the recruiting experts expected of him.
then 2012 rolled around, with a new regime in Tempe led by defensive minded Todd Graham as head coach. under Graham's new leadership, Sutton blossomed into a superstar. Seemingly out of nowhere, Sutton became an unblockable force and recorded 23.5 tackles for loss (second in the nation) and 13 sacks (third). Sutton turned into an overnight sensation in the Pac-12 and was named the conference's defensive player of the year and a consensus All-American.
So, what made Sutton turn into such a beast? Here's a little game film to explain how he became a star.
I'm sure you will notice right away just how quick he is. At 0:24, watch how he just leaves the left tackle in the dust. It is not normal for a 300 pounder to move with such ease but look at how he uses his feet and hands to set up like he's rushing outside and make a quick move inside to beat the tackle. He didn't even get a good jump off the line yet he got to the quarterback and was hardly touched on the way there. At 0:47, you can see the kind of explosiveness he has off the line. He runs a stunt move which means he is lined up at defensive end, face up over the tackle but he runs to the middle of the formation and rushes against the center at the snap of the ball. He makes one slide step inside to the right at the snap and then watch his explosiveness as he blows through the offensive line for what should have been a sack. At 4:24, you can see how he complements his absurd quickness with great strength. Instead of trying to work his way around the guard, he engages him with his hands and just bull rushes right through him to pressure the QB into throwing before he wanted to.
There are only a handful of defensive linemen in college football every year who can move the way Sutton can. However, it is hard to think of a second defensive lineman anywhere in college football who can equal Sutton's combination of quickness and strength. he has very well developed pass rush moves particularly his swim move and his bull rush. I also like how he finds the ball very effectively and can easily get off blocks and chase down the ball carrier in the run game. As you can see throughout the clip above, he can line up at all three D-line spots in a 3-4 and can pass rush in any direction from all three positions. That versatility combined with his talent will make him highly sought after by NFL scouts. His height definitely hurts him a little but, his ability and game film should be enough to get him into the late first round/early second round.
His numbers last year were absurdly high and he is bound for a regression to the mean but last season was no fluke. This is a special defensive lineman and a guy who cannot be blocked by just one man no matter how good that one man is.
Sunday, 25 August 2013
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 4 Anthony Barr
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| Jonathan Moore/Getty Images |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
6. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
5. RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
Anthony Barr has already had one of the strangest college careers in recent memory. Barr was a top 50 recruit nationally in 2010 and was listed as an "Athlete." The Los Angeles native decided to stay at home and play for UCLA who recruited him to play offense. Barr was installed into the UCLA offense the day he got to Westwood as a running back and tight end. through two seasons as a hybrid playmaker on offense, Barr struggled to keep his head above water in the Bruins offense as he never touched the ball more than twice in a single game during his 22 games as an offensive player. With his career going nowhere and his talent being wasted, new head coach Jim L. Mora sat down with Barr and convinced him to make some drastic changes. Mora saw the size, length, athleticism, and attitude necessary to be a dominant pass rusher and he convinced Barr to give defense a try. it's a good thing Barr listened because one year later, Barr has gone from one of UCLA's all-time recruiting busts to one of its most celebrated players.
I'm sure Mora saw something in Barr the moment he first saw him that made him think that Barr could be a great defender. Despite that, I doubt Mora could have ever imagined the position switch would pan out the way it did. Playing defense for the first time since high school, Barr lit Pac-12 backfields on fire with 83 total tackles including 21.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks, and four forced fumbles. Despite never playing the position before and missing most of spring and fall camp with a hand injury, Barr flourished as an outside linebacker as he led the Pac-12 in sacks and finished second in TFLs. In the grand scheme of college football, Barr finished fifth in TFLs while only Georgia's Jarvis Jones could boast more sacks.
I have a feeling that you like being impressed, so I'm going to show you a collection of Anthony Barr's finest plays from last season.
Barr's number one trait is obviously his athleticism. He can run sideline to sideline and track down any offensive player because he used to be one. That athleticism pays huge dividends when he needs to recover during a play. there are two particular plays in the clip above that I want to highlight to show what I'm talking about at 3:13 and 5:28. On both of those plays Barr bites on a fake to the running back (to be fair, the first one against Nebraska may have been a read option play with Barr as the defender being read, I'm not sure) and most defenders would have taken themselves out of the play by doing this. You can see Barr's freak athleticism though as he is able to recover and not only get back in the play but take down the QB for a loss in both instances. Quite frankly, with Dion Jordan off to the NFL I don't there's another player in the Pac-12 right now who can do that.
You also can't help but be impressed with the kind of power that he hits with. Barr never struggles to bring anyone down. Watch the whole clip above and count the number of times he takes someone off the ground and knocks them back a few yards. it's hard to keep track of them all. I don't want to celebrate injuries because they are terrible and you never want to see anyone get hurt but there's something to be said for the fact that Barr knocked three different quarterbacks out of games with three perfectly legal hits. Rice's Taylor McHargue, Arizona's Matt Scott, and in particular Matt Barkley whose college career was ended single-handedly by Barr, felt the wrath of UCLA's star pass rusher. It's also not a mistake that Barr forced four fumbles and will cause more in the future. Watch at 1:43, he chases down OSU's Sean Mannion and wraps him up with two arms like he's supposed to but look at how he deliberately targets the ball with his right hand and punches it out.
Now if you are a fan of a team with UCLA on the schedule, I have some very bad news for you. Barr produced that great season entirely on talent. Watch all those sacks and you won't find one pass rush move other than simply beating an offensive tackle with speed, agility, and an explosive first step. Barr doesn't even have a go to pass rush move, no rip move, swim move, or spin move, nothing. I mentioned above how he chased the wrong player a few times and those two plays in the highlight clip were hardly isolated incidents. He did seem to have a good grasp of the defense although his role basically amounted to "Hey Anthony, see quarterback? Go get quarterback." All kidding aside he showed good understanding of backside containment on both running and passing plays and he held up okay in pass coverage when he was asked to.
After showing that much raw talent in one year at outside linebacker, Barr is bound to develop even further. eventually, he's going to develop a few pass rush moves, he's going to stop biting on play action fakes and chasing the wrong player, he's going to learn how to run with tight ends in pass coverage and his size and athleticism isn't going anywhere. Given how much ability he has shown despite not really knowing how to play the position, I think he has more upside than anyone in the 2014 draft outside of Jadaveon Clowney. I'll go this far, if he ever really learns how to play his position to its fullest (and I think he will) he will eventually be considered one of the top five defenders in the NFL. He's a sure fire top 10 pick who could work his way even higher up the board with another strong season. There is a bit of a shadow cast over his 2013 season thanks to a recent injury but all indications are that he will be fine. Unfortunately for you, Pac-12 offenses, Barr isn't going anywhere and he is hunting your quarterbacks right now.
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 5 Ka'Deem Carey
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| Bruce Yeung - Yeung Photography |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
6. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
There are dynamic runners, and then there are players like Carey. No other player in college football possesses Carey's combination of strength, speed, balance, agility, and vision. There are simply no holes in his game. All that dynamic ability was enough for Carey to outrun all other tailbacks in the nation with 1929 yards. he was explosive in the red zone, in short yardage situations, and long yardage situations. He kept Arizona ahead of the chains by averaging seven yards per carry on first downs. He also got better as games went along as he averaged 4.94 yards per carry in the 1st quarter, 5.81 in the 2nd, 8.54 in the 3rd (best in college football), and 6.69 in the 4th. Carey accounted for 92 first downs (3rd most in CFB) and 24 total touchdowns (5th).
Carey rushed for over 100 yards and at least one touchdown in every game but three. One of those three games was when he ran for 71 yards and a score in the first half against South Carolina State before being rested after recess so you might as well bring the number down to two. He also got stronger as the season went along when he had his four most productive games in Arizona's final four contests. He rushed for 366 yards and five TDs (not a typo) against Colorado, 204 against Utah, and 172 against both Arizona St. and Nevada. You might say, "Those aren't great defenses, I'm not that impressed" and that's fine but don't you dare say he didn't show up against top teams. Carey torched Stanford's vaunted defense that gave up the fifth fewest rushing yards in the nation for 132 yards and three touchdowns. In terms of facing other top 30 run defenses, Carey had 204 against number 23 Utah, and 115 against number 28 Oregon State.
So his numbers are mind blowing and that's great but numbers can be boring. You know what's not boring? Watching Ka'Deem Carey run. Luckily for you I have some film of the Pac-12's premier tailback for you to drool over:
You can see his speed, strength, and balance on the first play of the clip. He beats a defender at the line of scrimmage who had an angle on him with his speed, runs through the safety without even lowering his shoulder, and maintains his balance after the contact as he doesn't even alter his stride or lose any speed as he runs for one of his nationally best 23 runs of 20+ yards. If you just watched his stride and didn't see him take on that contact you would think he was never even touched. At 0:57 you can see Carey's vision and ability to break plays outside. Arizona runs a power play designed to go up the middle but the hole never forms. Carey finds a cutback lane to left and makes a beautiful quick cut and shows his strength again as he shakes of a tackler and turns no gain into 25 yards like only he can.
Carey also displays a great understanding of angles on his one yard score at 1:52. he gets forced to the outside again and he out runs three different defenders but instead of heading for the pylon like most tailbacks would, he reads a seam between his blocker and the backside pursuit and cuts it up field for the touchdown. What I particularly love about him and he shows this throughout the film above is that he doesn't waste time getting up field. he reads his blocks and the defenders angles in a nano-second and makes one cut up field. despite all his ability, he doesn't try to bounce outside for a big play on every snap and he doesn't waste time reversing field or putting himself in a compromising situation trying to create a big play. he just takes what the defense gives him. When he takes that space, he makes people miss effortlessly and when the defense gives him an inch, he takes a mile.
Carey doesn't necessarily have ideal size but he is hardly a dwarf. He has a positive impact on the passing game as well as he picks up the blitz pretty well and is a solid receiver. There are no holes whatsoever in his game on the field. he puts everything on the table and takes nothing off it. The only real concern over Carey is his attitude and the signs he has shown of an inflated ego. He was charged with misdemeanor assault and disorderly conduct stemming from an altercation with his ex-girlfriend and mother of his children (the charges have been dropped and Carey is back together with his girlfriend) and was ejected from a Wildcats basketball game in January for unruly behavior.
However, Carey has been saying all the right things this off-season and appears to be a changed man. Back on the field in 2013, Carey seems to have a great chance to equal his production from last year. The 'Cats face a very weak non-conference schedule and avoid Stanford on the out of division draw. With All-Conference QB Matt Scott in the NFL and premier receiver Austin Hill on the shelf for the season with a torn ACL, Arizona is likely to lean on Carey even more. Carey has the talent but doesn't possess the body of a top RB draft prospect like Adrian Peterson or Trent Richardson but I would be shocked to see him drop out of the first round. Given the short shelf life of NFL tailbacks and the fact that he has a kid to feed, I would be shocked to see him stay in Tucson beyond this season.
We don't have much time left to see Carey in the Pac-12 but what a ride it has been. No returning tailback in college football can boast the numbers he has and few can match his talent. There's one more skill position player left on this countdown ahead of Carey but if I had to build an offense around any non-QB in the Pac-12, Carey would be my choice every time.
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 6 Brett Hundley
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| Stephen Dunn - Getty Images |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
7. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
Hundley came in with as much hype as any UCLA recruit in recent memory. he was a five-star prospect out of Arizona in 2011 who proved to be a major coup for then head coach Neuheisel. Some even argued that Hundley might be the guy who could save Neuheisel's job. Hundley enrolled a semester early and participated in spring practices in 2011 and by all accounts was very much in the thick of UCLA's QB race that offseason. However, a knee injury cost him a significant portion of fall camp and as a result, Hundley fell behind far less talented veterans Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut and ended up redshirting. Hundley watched from the sideline as the Bruins floundered to a 6-8 record that ultimately forced coach Neuheisel to clear out his desk and move on to the Pac-12 Network.
With a new coach and new offensive system in place, Hundley took everything he learned in his season on the bench, stayed healthy, and won Jim L. Mora's first QB competition. Hundley proceeded to take the field and became one of the nation's best passers overnight. he scored a 72 yard rushing touchdown on his first career play and never looked back. With the Bruins running a no-huddle spread offense for the first time in school history, Hundley took command of the offense and a group of players recruited to play a different system and led them to the Pac-12 South division title, the school's first win over hated USC in six years, and its best record in seven years. All totaled, Hundley impressed with 3740 passing yards and 29 touchdowns on 66.5% completions and another 355 yards and nine more scores on the ground. By air and by ground, Hundley immediately translated his unlimited talent into on field success and would have been a freshman All-American in just about any other year (Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota send their apologies).
Hundley is very well built. he fits the ideal athletic profile of a modern quarterback at 6-3 and 222 pounds. he isn't exceptionally tall and lumbering, and he isn't short and lacking durability. He has a very strong and accurate arm, very quick feet, good presence in the pocket, and a good grasp of the UCLA offense and going through his progressions. I also like his intangibles as he seems very calm and cool on the field and the sideline and he appeared to have the unanimous trust and respect of his teammates from day one, a rare feat for a freshman.
One unique trait that I love about Hundley is how well he can carry out play action fakes and make a strong throw seemingly in one motion. UCLA's offense is predicated on a lot of different reads. Hundley often has to read a linebacker or defensive end on both run plays and pass plays. in fact, UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone often packages short pass options within his run plays. You can see throughout the clip on the right how Hundley is able to be the ideal trigger man in this offense. You can see at 0:42 seconds, Hundley carries out a fake to the RB, and throws an accurate fastball through a tight window for a 10 yard gain in the span of about a second.
A common criticism of Hundley and the UCLA offense is that Mazzone's system is mostly passed on screens and short passes that inflate Hundley's numbers, particularly his completion percentage and passer efficiency. I don't necessarily disagree but watch all the screens from this game against ASU or any other UCLA opponents from last year. Every screen throw is perfect. You never see a UCLA receiver reaching behind themselves or above their head or down to their shoestrings. Every throw hits the receiver in the mid section and is laid out in front of them. Screen passes do inflate completion percentages but they aren't effective unless they are thrown well and Hundley is always on target with those throws. I also want to highlight his calmness in the pocket. Hundley had every excuse to be antsy last year considering how poor UCLA's O-line was in pass protection (52 sacks allowed in 14 games) but at 1:40, you can see Hundley read the blitz coming from his left without ever looking that direction and just slide to the right and makes and accurate throw on the run and under pressure for a short gain.
You can also see how Hundley remains accurate on longer throws on his first touchdown. Hundley reads a mismatch with athletic wide receiver Devin Fuller matched up with a safety. he knows he has that mismatch and that he will throw that direction before the snap but you can see him look off to the other receiver on the right side of the formation and use his eyes to affect the safety. Then Hundley turns and fires a perfect pass right as Fuller makes his break to the middle of the field, over the head of a helpless linebacker and into Fuller's hands who once again does not have to jump, dive, or reach backwards to haul it in.
My one serious gripe with Hundley is that he sometimes holds onto the ball too long. I love how calm he looks in the pocket but sometimes he's a little too calm as he stands there and eventually allows himself to be sacked or to throw a poor pass into coverage. He needs to develop that four to five second clock in his head that tells him to either find a running lane or throw the ball away when it expires. Other than that, he is an ideal QB. He has good size, a great arm, very good accuracy, a quick and fluid throwing motion, tremendous athleticism, a good grasp of the offense, and very sound intangibles. He's eligible to enter the draft after this season and I could certainly see him doing that as he holds all the tools to be a top 10 pick. Whatever he decides to do, I think Hundley is going to be a great player for a long time and a guy who will only continue to get better.
Friday, 23 August 2013
40 Players in 40 Days: Number 7 De'Anthony Thomas
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| Doug Beghtel - The Oregonian |
40. WR Chris Harper, Cal
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
39. OLB/S Dion Bailey, USC
38. S Alden Darby, Arizona State
37. OT Tyler Johnstone, Oregon
36. DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe, Colorado
35. S Deon Bucannon, Washington State
34. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
33. DE Taylor Hart, Oregon
32. DT DeAndre Coleman, Cal
31. CB Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
30. C Hroniss Grassu, Oregon
29. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford
28. QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford
27. LB Carl Bradford, Arizona State
26. RB Storm Woods, Oregon State
25. QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State
24. DL Cassius Marsh, UCLA
23. S Ed Reynolds, Stanford
22. OT Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
21. TE Colt Lyerla, Oregon
20. RB Bishop Sankey, Washington
19. DT Leonard Williams, USC
18. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
17. OL Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
16. OLB/DL Trent Murphy, Stanford
15. OL David Yankey, Stanford
14. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
13. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
12. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State
11. RB Marion Grice, Arizona State
10. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. DE/OLB Morgan Breslin, USC
8. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Thomas could easily be the most famous non-quarterback in college football. Two plus years of the same commentary in between plays, fluff pieces, articles, and other features has made sure that even the most casual football fans know Thomas' back story. He was first introduced to football in Snoop Dogg's Pop Warner league where the famous rapper nicknamed him "Black Mamba," a moniker he still holds today. Thomas went on to become a star at Crenshaw High School in Los Angeles and comitted to USC in 2010 and maintained his verbal to the Trojans for over a year. however, a recruiting trip to Eugene shortly before Signing Day in 2011 changed his tune and casued a controversial reversal of his commitment to the Ducks.
Considering they flipped him from the Trojans, Thomas was the greatest recruiting coup in Ducks history and came in with astronomical hype in 2011. With so much expectation placed on an 18 year old, it seemed inevitable that Thomas wouldn't deliver as a newcomer but he gave Duck fans everything they asked for and more. The man known as DAT rolled up 1200 yards and 18 total touchdowns, averaging a shade under 12 yards per touch. More so than producing ridiculous numbers, Thomas instantly became legendary for making the type of plays that only a handful of athletes in college football can make every year. Thomas specifically made plays like this:
Poor Tyree Toomer. That play above is the one time in my life when I have wanted to see a game stopped momentarily just so a player could be given a hug. After one of the great freshman seasons in Oregon history, Thomas was adorned with even greater expectations last season, including an appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Through three games, it looked like Thomas was going to have a Heisman type season as he tallied 382 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns playing almost exclusively in the first half against a troika of sub-par opponents. Then the competition ramped up and Thomas fell off. He went four straight games without 100 yards from scrimmage, low-lighted by 29 yards on 15 touches against Arizona State. he got back on track somewhat against Colorado (mind you the Buffs defense always seems to be the cure for a struggling offense) with one of the most amazing punt returns you'll ever see. But, Thomas fell off again after that performance, most notably with a 46 yard performance against Stanford complete with sheer obliviousness on one particular play that one could argue, cost the Ducks a shot at a perfect season.
In the wake of that Stanford game, with Oregon's national title dreams crushed the disappointment in Thomas and his regression was palpable. But, then the Civil War and the Fiesta Bowl rolled around and DAT found a way to salvage his season with two vintage performances. Even though Kenjon Barner was still perfectly healthy, the Ducks used Thomas as a feature tailback against OSU, perhaps to get his confidence back following his terrible game against the Cardinal, and he responded with 122 yards and three TDs rushing on a career high 17 carries. Thomas scored two first quarter TDs against Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl including one on the opening kickoff.
Some people saw Thomas' sophomore season as a disappointment. I don't blame those people for thinking that way but let's be perfectly honest here, Thomas scored just as many touchdowns lats year as he did in 2011 and produced just 54 fewer yards. His yards per touch average dropped from 11.9 to 8.4 but if 8.4 yards per touch is a disappointment, doesn't that instantly prove he's an elite player if production that high is below expectation?
I'm sure you already know what makes this young man so special: speed, speed, and more speed. With the exception of that one play against Stanford, Thomas has also demonstrated a tremendous ability to see the field and read defenders and the angles they take. he makes explosive cuts in the open field like the one above against Wazzou effortlessly. He's also surprisingly strong as he runs through arm tackles fairly easily and forces opponents to wrap up or else. His short comings are just as obvious as his superlatives. he is woefully undersized which makes you wonder if he can ever be a feature tailback. There are particularly questions if he can pound out those tough yards in between the tackles. Barner and LaMichael James were short backs but both were very well built, certainly more so than Thomas. With two highly touted prototypical tailbacks behind him in Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner, Thomas could be forced back into the same hybrid role he has played the last two seasons.
On the other hand he is a more explosive and dynamic threat than James or Barner. that sounds crazy to say considering all the amazing plays those two produced but it's true. Thomas is also a far superior receiver than either of those two will ever be. He's NFL futureon the other hand is hard to project. It certainly helps his case that Tavon Austin, an almost identical player just went in the top 10. However, the old saying in the draft is that "it only takes one GM who believes in you" and Austin found a GM who believed in him but, there's no guarantee that Thomas will be dealt the same deck of cards. I will say that the need for difference makers on offense in the pros has never been greater and I think at least one team will see enough value in Thomas to pick him in the 1st round although I doubt it will happen in the top 10.
There's no question that De'Anthony Thomas has his warts but the bottom line is he is one of the Pac-12's best. based on sheer entertainment value, there isn't any one else in college football you should rather watch, and that counts for something. We'll have to wait and see what his role looks like under his new head coach and whether he can fully rekindle that freshman magic but for now, I think there's no doubt he's one of the Pac-12's very best.
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